There’s only one UFC pay-per-view left this year, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other remaining cards that could greatly affect the promotion’s 2026 plans.
UFC Qatar on Saturday features two potential No. 1 contender bouts, as Arman Tsarukyan aims to defend his top lightweight spot against Dan Hooker in the main event, while former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad looks to stop a losing streak before it begins when he takes on “The Future” Ian Machado Garry. It’s safe to say if any of these
gentlemen deliver an impressive performance, they could be next in line to challenge for gold.
But how impressive do they have to be? Can Tsarukyan grind out a decision over Hooker, or does he have to show that he’s in a different league? Can Hooker leapfrog the contender line if he puts Tsarukyan down for the count? Is Muhammad one win away from fighting for the title again or is he a non-factor in the eyes of the matchmakers? And what does Garry have to do to establish himself as the favorite in a rollicking welterweight division?
All that, plus the return of Kyoji Horiguchi, Jack Hermansson venturing down to 170 pounds for the first time, and Waldo Cortes-Acosta booking his fifth fight of 2025 on just three days’ notice.
What: UFC Qatar
Where: Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Doha, Qatar
When: Saturday, Nov. 22. The eight-fight preliminary card begins at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 1 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and MMA Fighting Pound-For-Pound Rankings)
Arman Tsarukyan (2, P4P-14) vs. Dan Hooker (7)
Hey, did you enjoy Islam Makhachev and Valentina Shevchenko sucking the souls out of their opponents? What about Khamzat Chimaev grounding Dricus du Plessis for 25 minutes? Have I got the fight for you!
Arman Tsarukyan has several paths to victory, but if he believes securing a win in the safest way possible is enough to preserve his No. 1 ranking, then there’s no reason he should deviate from the obvious game plan of taking Dan Hooker down early and often. Now, Hooker isn’t easy to outwrestle, and it takes someone Islam Makhachev to completely dominate him on the ground, but Tsarukyan isn’t far off from that level. If he is determined to grapple, there isn’t a lot Hooker can do to stop him.
As long as Hooker is standing, he can make this fight interesting, and Tsarukyan could be setting himself up for a huge letdown if he’s even slightly off his game. Again, I believe wrestling is the “safest” way for Tsarukyan to approach this, but that’s not the same as easy. There’s nothing easy about diving into the wood-chipper that is Hooker’s striking game.
I have Tsarukyan winning a decision and no, I have no clue if this in any way guarantees him a title shot, especially with the UFC’s 2026 plans still up in the air.
Pick: Tsarukyan
Belal Muhammad (T3, P4P-11) vs. Ian Machado Garry (6)
Is it really over for Belal Muhammad?
Wait… I’m having déjà vu. Right, we just went through a similar dance with Leon Edwards and Carlos Prates last week. And I picked Edwards to win.
Whoops.
Even so, I’m picking Muhammad to win, too. You thought I was actually going to learn something?
Ian Machado Garry has a golden opportunity in front of him, as the oddsmakers have him pegged to get past Muhammad and possibly emerge at the top of the welterweight contender pile. He hits hard, uses his physical tools well, and is no slouch when it comes to grappling. It’s that last element that could prove key to holding Muhammad off, because Muhammad should mix the martial arts here and utilize some Cormier wrestling to go along with his “Canelo hands.”
Mixing it up is what Muhammad is best at and seeing him fight so one-dimensionally against Jack Della Maddalena was frustrating. If he only utilizes his standup with Garry, he’s leaving his fate in the hands of the MMA Gods, and they rarely shown mercy when it comes to aging veterans.
Garry is saying all the right things about finishing Muhammad and staking his claim to the No. 1 contender spot and if he pulls it off, no one will be surprised. I’m just not ready to count Muhammad out yet (damn, that sounds familiar).
Pick: Muhammad
Volkan Oezdemir (12) vs. Alonzo Menifield
I see a fighter susceptible to being KO’d, I see them fighting Volkan Oezdemir, I pick Volkan Oezdemir.
Alonzo Menifield has struggled to pull the trigger in recent years, and that plays perfectly into Oezdemir’s strategy as he takes a minute or two to get a read on his opponents. Once he does, though, it’s typically lights out and I don’t see Menifield having the defense or agility to stay out of the way once Oezdemir locks in and starts throwing. It requires a certain degree of unpredictability to get Oezdemir off of his game and that’s not Menifield’s
There’s a part of me that’s worried this light heavyweight fight could get real middleweight-y, but I’m trusting Menifield to do the right thing and look for a finish, which will only leave the door open for Oezdemir to cut him off and shut him down.
Pick: Oezdemir
Jack Hermansson vs. Myktybek Orolbai
Jack Hermansson at 170? Don’t love it!
“The Joker” looked fine on the scale and you want to believe he’s smart enough to not to do anything deleterious to his health, but a weight class change at this stage of the game feels a little desperate. He isn’t being given a layup either, as Myktybek Orolbai looks make a permanent move up to 170 pounds after wasting his time struggling to consistently make the lightweight limit.
Orolbai is a durable, well-rounded fighter, and he’s going to push the pace early to see if Hermansson dropping an extra 15 pounds has any effect on his performance. Hermansson will use his length to frustrate Orolbai and likely avoid a brawl if Orolbai attempts to draw him into one. Can Hermansson’s technical strengths stave off Orolbai for there rounds?
I’ve wanted Orolbai to make the move to welterweight for some time, and I don’t think anyone can say the same for Hermansson. Orolbai by decision.
Pick: Orolbai
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (8) vs. Shamil Gaziev
The “Salsa Boy” vibes are immaculate! I’m not picking against him!
Admittedly, this seems like a bad idea for Waldo Cortes-Acosta. He’s taking a fight on three days’ notice, he just fought three weeks ago, and he got kind of lucky that referee Mark Smith intervened to save him from an eye poke-punches knockout combination at the hands of Ante Delija. A wiser fighter might have cashed in their chips and looked ahead to 2026.
But not Cortes-Acosta! He’s all-in on 2025 and could end the year an astonishing 4-1 if he upsets Shamil Gaziev. It’s a tall order given Gaziev has a truck for a right hand and he won’t hesitate to wrestle with Cortes-Acosta if it comes to it. I’d argue Cortes-Acosta is a significant step up in competition, though, so there could be an adjustment period, especially given Cortes-Acosta’s sometimes unorthodox movement.
Common sense says pick Gaziev, but did I mention the vibes?
Pick: Cortes-Acosta
Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (4)
I’m seeing plenty of takes saying this is a nightmare matchup for Kyoji Horiguchi’s UFC return and to those people, I have one question: How dare you?
Horiguchi has been one of the best lighter weight fighters in the world for the better part of the last decade. He also has plenty of experience fighting bigger guys, so even though Tagir Ulanbekov has a clear size advantage, I’m not deterred in my belief Horiguchi will have a victorious start to his second UFC run. Just look at how his two fights with Darrion Caldwell went. Caldwell was huge compared to Horiguchi and, yes, Caldwell spent a lot of those fights working from top position, he also lost both of them because Horiguchi knows how to work out of bad positions and maximize his offense.
I expect Ulanbekov to tower over Horiguchi and I’m not saying this is an easy win for Horiguchi at all. If anything, Ulanbekov might be the best-kept secret at flyweight and could be just one or two signature wins away from challenging for a top 5 spot. He’s very, very, very, very good at what he does.
But Horiguchi’s speed and experience will make the difference, not to mention his oft-overlooked finishing ability. Forget just pulling off an upset, I’m predicting a knockout win for Horiguchi.
Pick: Horiguchi
Preliminaries
Luke Riley def. Bogdan Grad
Saygid Izagakhmaev def. Nicolas Dalby
Asu Almabayev (11) def. Alex Perez (T12)
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev def. Raffael Cerqueira
Bekzat Almakhan def. Aleksandre Topuria
Ismail Naurdiev def. Ryan Loder
Nurullo Aliev def. Shem Rock
Denzel Freeman def. Marek Bujlo
