Folks, it’s time. With the Dallas Mavericks firmly in position to compete for the NBA Draft Lottery, we need to take our first look at how the first round of the 2026 NBA Draft could play out. Myself, along with fellow Mavs Moneyball contributors David, Bryan and David hashed this all out during a live Pod Maverick during the all-star break, which you can see here.
Here’s where we settled in the lottery, with the remainder of the first round hashed out by me after the stream.
1) Brooklyn Nets – Darryn Peterson (G, Kansas)
Despite all his challenges,
Peterson remains in the top spot. It’d be nice if over the course of the last month of the year, he’s able to consistently play full minute loads, as he did against Cincy and Houston on Saturday and Monday. However, the talent is undeniable, and he will be here until proven otherwise.
2) Washington Wizards – AJ Dybantsa (F, BYU)
You could flip either of Dybantsa and Boozer around at two or three, depending on the team. Washington, in this scenario, takes Dybantsa to bolster their scoring with Anthony Davis and Alex Sarr manning the four and five.
3) Sacramento Kings – Cam Boozer (F, Duke)
Boozer follows suit and goes third to Sacramento, who desperately needs a steadying presence. With Sabonis likely on the move, Boozer is a plug and play starter.
4) Indiana Pacers – Caleb Wilson (F, North Carolina)
Indiana was favored by the Lottery Gods here in our sim, getting to keep their pick. The reward? Potentially the best defender in the class with Caleb Wilson.
5) Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans) – Mikel Brown Jr. (G, Louisville)
The first real shocker comes at five, with Atlanta making Mikel Brown Jr. the first guard after Darryn Peterson to go off the board. However, when you dive into the numbers since conference play began for Brown Jr., he’s been every bit as good as the three guys who will follow him in this mock.
As I said on the stream, this part of the draft is the ice cream shop. These guys are all comparable, and teams will simply be picking their favorite flavor.
6) Utah Jazz – Keaton Wagler (G, Illinois)
Wagler remains an interesting scout, as he and Acuff have similar strengths and weaknesses. The difference is that Wagler is 6’6”, which buys a lot of good will in NBA front offices.
7) Dallas Mavericks – Kingston Flemings (G, Houston)
If the board were to fall this way, it’s a no brainer for the Mavericks. Kingston Flemings could be a day one starter at guard alongside Kyrie Irving. The defensive intangibles that come from playing for Kelvin Sampson at Houston are a huge strength, along with his offensive production. You could ask, “why would he fall?” An answer could be that the jumper just doesn’t look as good as some of the others here. However, it goes in all the same.
8) Memphis Grizzlies – Darius Acuff (G, Arkansas)
Memphis has had success in the past with smaller guards, in going from Mike Conley to Ja Morant. Acuff would be protected defensively here, as Cedric Coward and Zach Edey are pretty good safety blankets.
9) Milwaukee Bucks – Yaxel Lendeborg (F, Michigan)
Yaxel Lendeborg went through the draft process last year before pulling out and transferring to Michigan. It’s paid off, as he has drastically improved as a player. His only real weakness is his age, but if Milwaukee is trying to win now, it’s a great pick. If not, they’ll probably take Ament.
10) Chicago Bulls – Nate Ament (F, Tennessee)
The aforementioned Nate Ament has come a long way since the start of the season. Since SEC play began, he’s improved basically every statistical category from the non-conference slate. He might not make it all the way to the top five, as was projected preseason. However, the player we’ve seen for the last six weeks is the guy who was promised.
11) San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks) – Hannes Steinbach (C, Washington)
Leave it to the Spurs to take the international guy. Steinbach, of Wurzburg, Germany, has been a glass eater for the Huskies this season. There is development to be done with some of the finer things, but you don’t have to squint too hard to see the vision.
12) Charlotte Hornets – Jayden Quaintance (F/C, Kentucky)
Quaintance has struggled with complications from knee surgery last year and has missed a lot of the season. However, he remains here because he has a ton of potential on the defensive side of the ball. If healthy, he’s probably a top six guy in the class. As is, if he slips any further than this it would make sense for him to return to school.
13) Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers) – Brayden Burries (G, Arizona)
Brayden Burries might be my favorite prospect in the class. He plays with an outstanding feel for the game, mainly off ball with Jaden Bradley handling point guard duties for the Cats. Burries is an excellent shooter, works well in the secondary creation role, and defends very well. I’d take him as high as nine.
14) Portland Trail Blazers – Labaron Philon (G, Alabama)
Portland is a true wildcard here, as their draft is somewhat run by former ESPN draft scout Mike Schmitz. Philon has had some wild variance over the course of this draft cycle. It went overshadowed, as Darius Acuff scored 49, but Philon dropped 35 points and seven assists in that double overtime win against Arkansas. He’s got great burst to get to the rim, and he shoots it at high level. Philon is firmly in the mix here late in the lottery.
15) Miami Heat – Koa Peat (F, Arizona)
It’s fair to wonder if Koa Peat returns to school if he falls out of the lottery. Peat has some seasoning that needs to happen offensively in order to reach his potential, as it’s pretty much all bully ball right now. However, they don’t make them like this guy physically. He’s a brute.
16) Golden State Warriors – Karim Lopez (F, New Zealand)
Lopez has seen a steady rise all the way to the outskirts of the lottery. He is a bit of a combo forward, which could be intriguing to a team like Golden State.
17) Memphis Grizzlies (via Magic) – Thomas Haugh (F, Florida)
The Grizzlies are a data-driven organization, which makes a guy like Haugh an interesting option. He does it all for Florida and could be a fun option alongside Coward, Edey and a guy like Darius Acuff. However, Memphis could be a trade team if they package their two first round picks together.
18) Oklahoma City Thunder (via 76ers) – Joshua Jefferson (F, Iowa State)
It would be shocking if OKC didn’t try and package these picks together for one better lottery selection. If they do stick here, Joshua Jefferson could be a replacement for the likes of Isaiah Hartenstein.
19) Charlotte Hornets (via Suns) – Braylon Mullins (G, UConn)
Mullins would add more offensive pop to the Hornets, which would be pretty scary off of their bench. Again, keep an eye on Charlotte to potentially trade in the draft.
20) Toronto Raptors – Cam Carr (G, Baylor)
Baylor has been an unmitigated disaster this season. Their lack of a true point guard has hurt both Carr and Tounde Yessoufou, but the talent is still flashing. Carr is an excellent shooter and good at creating off secondary action, making him a nice fit in Toronto.
21) Detroit Pistons (via Wolves) – Morez Johnson (F, Michigan)
Detroit earned this swap at the trade deadline, which would allow them to take a guy in Morez Johnson that has been wonderful for Michigan this season. Detroit could use some forward help, especially if they decide not to pay some of the guys they currently have.
22) Los Angeles Lakers – Patrick Ngongba (C, Duke)
The need for a center is still there in Los Angeles. Luka Doncic has already shown the ability to win the west with a rookie center from Duke. So, might as well spin the block.
23) New York Knicks – Dailyn Swain (F, Texas)
Swain has been a steady riser during this process, as he has really taken off since SEC play began. The worry here is the shot, because he is ready made in all other aspects of the game.
24) Atlanta Hawks (via Cavs) – Bennett Stirtz (G, Iowa)
Atlanta could use a guard that will help steady them, and Stirtz fits the bill nicely. He won’t ever be a star, but he seems destined to run second units for 12 years. He does almost everything well on the offensive end, but the limits defensively will cap him.
25) Denver Nuggets – Amari Allen (F, Alabama)
If Denver is truly unable to pay Peyton Watson this offseason, it’s time to start looking for his replacement. Amari Allen is perfect for that, as he will come in as a readymade shooter and defender.
26) Philadelphia 76ers (via Rockets) – Chris Cenac Jr. (F, Houston)
Cenac is awesome, but it’s fair to question whether he’d remain in the draft if he is slated to slip here. If he stays, teams are getting an elite rebounder, solid defender and a guy who isn’t afraid to shoot. He’s got nice touch, but the shot selection could use some work.
27) Boston Celtics – Aday Mara (C, Michigan)
Don’t let the Duke game fool you, Aday Mara has been really good for the Wolverines and is deserving of this first round consideration. For a Boston team that needs a big, he’d be an immediate fit.
28) Cleveland Cavaliers (via Spurs) – Christian Anderson (G, Texas Tech)
Christian Anderson is undervalued by almost everyone, which allows the fall here to 28 and Cleveland. The sophomore guard is an excellent offensive player, shooting over 40% from three and running an elite two man game with JT Toppin. With Toppin now out, it’s time to see Anderson do what he did in the FIBA U19 World Cup with Germany: Carry a team to victory.
29) Dallas Mavericks (via Thunder) – Tounde Yessoufou (G, Baylor)
Yessoufou has been victimized by Baylor’s lack of point guard play, so the numbers aren’t as impressive as you’d hope. But the athletic ability is truly elite, as Yessoufou is able to guard and is a connecting piece offensively. The shot doesn’t look as bad as the low 30’s percentage from three would tell you, so there is hope on that end, too. Think Lu Dort, but without everything you hate about Lu Dort.
30) Minnesota Timberwolves (via Pistons) – Tyler Tanner (G, Vanderbilt)
Tyler Tanner is an absolute joy to watch. He is fantastic on the offensive end, and the effort can never be questioned. Of course, he’s listed at 6’0”, 170 pounds, which is why he finds himself here. But, there’s a spot in the league for guys like him. Minnesota could work, especially considering their need for guard play off the bench.
