On Monday, Robbie posted an article imploring Tom Izzo to adapt to the modern times, particularly as they relate to the transfer portal and offensive philosophy. The discussion it generated is as compelling as the article and Spartan fans seems to be split in regards to how they view Izzo’s use of the portal.
This post won’t necessarily attempt to argue against Robbie’s points. If watching Dusty May and Michigan win it all doesn’t spark some deep evaluation from Izzo then perhaps nothing will.
But,
is there any chance that Izzo’s methods could still work?
What follows is a comparison of Izzo’s overall and tournament success compared to three different coaching groups:
- Retired Peers. These are all-time great coaches who have retired and who coached primarily before the “Transfer Portal Era”, which is defined below. This group includes Mike Krzyzewski (Duke), Roy Williams (Kansas and North Carolina), Jay Wright (Villanova), and Jim Boeheim (Syracuse).
- Active Peers. These are all-time great coaches who are still active and have therefore coached before and during the portal era. This group includes Rick Pitino (currently St. John’s), John Calipari (Arkansas), Bill Self (Kansas), and Dan Hurley (Connecticut).
- Newcomers. These are already highly successful coaches who have coached primarily, or entirely, within the portal era. Here we have Tommy Lloyd (Arizona), Jon Scheyer (Duke), and Dusty May (Michigan).
The transfer portal era is defined as the 2021-2022 season and after. In April, 2021 the NCAA allowed student athletes to transfer one time and be eligible to play for their new team immediately without sitting out a year (spending a “year in residence”). Then, in April, 2024, the NCAA went a step further and allowed immediate eligibility regardless of how many times a player transfers.
There’s no question Izzo’s methods have worked in the past. The chart below compares Izzo’s NCAA Tournament Survival Rate to his retired peers. Izzo just finished his 31st season leading Michigan State. Excluding the 2020 NCAA tournament which was canceled due to Covid19, Izzo, as we all know, has taken MSU to the Big Dance 28 consecutive times. Izzo’s Spartans made the NIT in his first two years so he’s been to the NCAA tournament in 93.3% of the years he’s been a head coach at MSU. This is slightly higher than Krzyzewski and trails only Roy Williams’ 93.8%.
The real evaluation for these historically great coaches probably goes beyond just making the tournament. Among this group, Izzo’s one national championship is equal to Boeheim but Krzyzewski (5), Williams (3), and Wright (2) reached the ultimate goal more often. Izzo’s deeper tournament runs still compare favorably, however. He’s made the Sweet 16 in 57% of his seasons which is slightly less than Krzyzewski’s 63% and Williams 59% but ahead of Wright and Boeheim. Izzo’s Final 4 percentage also compares favorably with Krzyzewski and Williams and surpasses that of Wright and Boeheim.
It’s a similar trend when Izzo is compared to his active peers. He’s reached the tournament, the Sweet 16, and the Final 4 at a higher rate than Pitino, Calipari, Self, and Hurley. It should be noted here that Hurley’s first eight years as a head coach were spent at Wagner and Rhode Island, where he made the NIT once and the NCAA round of 32 twice. It’s been a different story since he took over at UConn though. The Huskies missed the tournament in Hurley’s first year in Storrs, his second year was the Covid year, and then he’s been on an absolute tear since then with back-to-back national titles in 2023 and 2024 and a runner-up finish this year.
But how have Izzo and his active peers fared in the transfer portal era? The next chart compares each coach’s overall winning percentage to his winning percentage in the last five years.
Izzo has dipped slightly from winning 71.2% of his games to 68.4% in the portal era. Calipari and Self have seen similar drops while Pitino and, especially, Hurley have improved in the portal era. Again, Hurley may be aided here by coaching at UConn now compared to Wagner and Rhode Island pre-portal but he’s still led the most dominant men’s basketball program in this new era of college sports.
Finally, there’s Izzo versus the highly successful newcomers. Arizona’s Lloyd and Duke’s Scheyer have only been head coaches in the transfer portal era while May was a head coach for three years prior to the 2021-2022 season. The following chart just looks at May’s NCAA tournament performance in the portal era.
Izzo has made it as far as the Sweet 16 three times and the Elite 8 once in the last five years. However, Lloyd, Scheyer, and May have made at least one Final 4 during this time and, of course, May won the title this year.
It appears from the chart above that Izzo and the Spartans are falling behind these newcomers but this may be slightly skewed by MSU’s performances in the first three years of the portal era. From 2021-22 through 2023-24, the Spartans were 64-41 overall (61%) with one Sweet 16 appearance.
However, in the last two years of unlimited transfers, Michigan State is 57-15 (79%) with a Sweet 16 and Elite 8. For comparison Lloyd is 60-16 (79%), May is 64-13 (83%), and Scheyer is 70-7 (91%) in the unlimited portal era. While the Spartans haven’t experienced the recent tournament success of these other programs, Izzo is winning games at a similar rate to Lloyd and May.
So back to the original question – Can Izzo’s methods still work? I think there is some evidence that they can and we’ve seen different approaches to the transfer portal have success. Michigan won it all this year in large part due to an amazing transfer class. Sportico’s Eben Novy-Williams and Lev Akabas note that:
“Michigan’s roster was a representation of how much college sports has changed in recent years. All five of the Wolverines’ typical starters were transfers, a first for an NCAA title team. That list includes leading scorer Yaxel Lendeborg and star point guard Elliot Cadeau, but also three others that transferred from within the Big Ten, an intraconference move that was relatively unheard of a few years ago.”
The Wolverines worked the current system to perfection this year and then got all of that talent to work together but, for some other teams (Kentucky) it didn’t work out so well. Perhaps it remains to be seen if teams can consistently work the portal like Michigan did this year. On the other hand, the Wolverines do seem to be linked to every top player in the portal right now so maybe lightning will strike twice.
UConn, on the other hand, started two transfers with another key transfer coming off the bench. The Spartans began the year with transfer Trey Fort in the starting lineup, replaced him with another transfer in Divine Ugochukwu but finished the year without a single transfer in the starting five.
We all know how it ended for MSU. Yes, UConn transfer starters Tarris Reed Jr. and Silas Demary Jr., along with Malachi Smith off the bench, were certainly impactful, but this was a game between two teams composed primarily on non-transfers. The Spartans shot horribly and fell behind by 19 in the first half while UConn shot well above their average on three pointers. Despite this, the Spartans were still in a position to win the game in the second half and, if either team had hit closer to their average, MSU could have at least been in the Elite 8 again.
Yes, it’s disappointing to see the Spartans’ season end the way it did while Michigan wins it all. But is it the same level of disappointment at, say, Indiana, North Carolina, or Kentucky?
Going forward, some teams will be faced with replacing a large chunk of their roster through the transfer portal every year. Again, Michigan certainly hit a grand slam this year. While I think Cadeau and Trey McKenney are set to return to the Wolverines, Lendeborg will be off to the NBA while Morez Johnson and Aday Mara have decisions to make. If they leave, the Wolverines will still be very talented but can they, or any other team, consistently strike gold in the portal and get those players to work together like Michigan did this year?
For MSU, things can obviously change in a hurry but, at this point, they are only looking for one player next year. It would be great if Izzo hit a grand slam on that one but, if the roster is as talented as expected, maybe a run-scoring double would suffice.
We can continue to wish Izzo did this or that but I wonder what his current players think of all this. Izzo and, I think, Spartan fans our proud of his “Our Kind of Guys.” But OKG’s should want to win. If next season’s Spartans are really one talented big man away from seriously contending, would Coen Carr and Jeremy Fears go to Izzo and implore him to get one like many of us are? Or do they know that Jesse McCulloch and Ethan Taylor are the answer? I’m not trying to be critical either way. Izzo, of course, is going to have the final say but I just wonder if there is a team discussion leading up to it.
Love it or hate, the portal at least gives us something to talk about!
