The Washington Nationals rebuild started at the 2021 trade deadline when they traded away a large chunk of their roster. However, 4.5 years later it is clear that those moves set the rebuild back rather
than giving it the intended jolt. I wanted to look back and analyze the moves made at that deadline.
Let’s start with the big move first. On July 29th, 2021, the Nationals traded Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Less than two years after winning the World Series, the team’s ace and star shortstop were dealt. Scherzer was a rental on the last year of his contract, but Turner had another year of team control. Mike Rizzo needed to get a franchise changing haul here.
Well, he did get a franchise changing package, but not in a good way. He traded Scherzer and Turner for Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz, Gerardo Carrillo and Donovan Casey. On paper, that seemed like a solid package at the time. Both Gray and Ruiz were top 50 prospects in the game, while Carrillo was an arm with upside.
However, none of these prospects panned out as expected. Ruiz and Gray were the two main pieces, and both disappointed. While Gray made an All-Star team in 2023, his performances on the mound have been uneven and he has missed most of the last two seasons with injuries.
Ruiz showed a lot of promise early on as well. So much so, the Nationals gave him an 8-year $50 million contract. At the time, Ruiz looked like the catcher of the future. However, he has put up negative fWAR each of the last three seasons due to poor defense and a steadily declining bat. Now Ruiz has serious concussion issues and does not look like a starting caliber catcher.
Neither Carrillo nor Casey turned into anything either. The Nats made a lot of trades at that deadline, but this is the one they needed to nail and they did not. It is odd comparing this move to the Soto trade. The prospect return in that Soto trade felt way more planned out. In this move, it just seemed like the Nats just targeted big league ready guys with strong pedigree, but players the Dodgers were very happy to give up.
The Dodgers had players like Michael Busch, Andy Pages and Ryan Pepiot in their system, but the Nats wanted the big league ready guys. At the time, Mike Rizzo thought this would be a retool, but he was wrong. This trade set the Nats back for years.
Ironically, the best player the Nats received at this deadline was in exchange for maybe the worst player they traded. Jon Lester had a great career, but by 2021 he was washed up and in his last season. With an ERA over 5 in DC, it was surprising that Mike Rizzo found a trade partner.
However, he got the Cardinals to bite, showing off what made him such a great executive in the 2010’s. Lane Thomas was buried in a crowded core of young Cardinals outfielders. He had a strong start to his MLB career, but by 2021, he was out of the picture in St. Louis.
Thomas got a fresh start in DC and ran with it. From his arrival in 2021 to his trade in 2024, Thomas was a solid piece for the Nats. He had a fantastic 2023 season, where he hit 28 homers and stole 20 bags. In DC, Thomas hit 60 homers, stole 60 bases and posted a solid .759 OPS.
To make things even better, Thomas got traded for a haul that included utility infielder Jose Tena and top pitching prospect Alex Clemmey. He was the best pickup of that deadline. While I loved the Lane train, the fact he was probably the best player they got from this tear down is not a great look.
While the Scherzer/Turner return hurt the team more long term, the Kyle Schwarber trade was the biggest whiff of that deadline. After the Cubs foolishly non-tendered Schwarber after a poor 2020 season, Mike Rizzo swooped in and gave the big slugger a 1-year $10 million deal.
After a decent first couple of months, Schwarber delivered one of the most memorable months in Nats history. He carried a struggling Nats team back to .500 with a 16 homer month in June. Davey Martinez moving Schwarber into the leadoff spot looked like a master stroke.
The Nats looked like a threat in the National League again and were considering buying at the deadline. However, Schwarber got hurt early in July which started a tailspin. That injury also depressed the slugger’s trade value. He was only on a one year deal and would not be back until mid to late August at the earliest.
Even with this in mind, the package the Nats got back was disastrous. The Nats traded Schwarber to the Red Sox in a one for one swap with promising 20 year old pitching prospect Aldo Ramirez. However, despite having mid-rotation upside, Ramirez was injured at the time.
It seems Mike Rizzo did not do his homework on this one because Ramirez’s career was destroyed by injuries. He only pitched 16.2 innings in Rookie Ball across his three years in the organization. Meanwhile, Schwarber made a big impact in Boston once he got healthy and we all know what he has done with the Phillies over the past few years.
Getting nothing for Schwarber is really frustrating. He is one of the great power hitters of the decade and the Nats moved him for a guy who never pitched above Rookie Ball for them. Stuff like this is why the Nats have to retool their original rebuild.
The Nats made a few other moves that at least netted big leaguers, but no standouts. Brad Hand was traded for Riley Adams. While Adams has been in the big leagues for a while now, he is nothing more than a backup. Daniel Hudson, the man who got the last out in the World Series was traded for Mason Thompson, a relief prospect. Thompson showed promise, but had trouble bouncing back from Tommy John Surgery and was released this offseason.
Another trade that has not worked out as intended is their move with the A’s. While Josh Harrison and Yan Gomes were not stars, they were rentals having strong seasons. In return, the Nats got Drew Millas, Seth Shuman and Richard Guasch. While I like Millas’ potential, he has not been a consistent big leaguer so far in his career. However, I think he deserves more run.
For the Nats, this was a deadline of missed opportunities. With all of these trades, you would expect a lot more. They did not get any true difference makers, which is a huge missed opportunity.
There was also plenty of talent to be had at this deadline, but the Nats pushed the wrong buttons. Standout future big leaguers like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jesus Luzardo, Reese Olson, Daniel Palencia, Joe Ryan, Josh Smith and Yainer Diaz were all moved at that deadline. Having a couple of those guys in DC right now would be very helpful.
Of course, we cannot change history now. However, if you want to know why the Nats rebuild has stalled out, this deadline is a major factor. We have talked a lot about the Nats failures in the draft, and rightfully so. We do not talk enough about this deadline though.
Throughout his career as a GM, Mike Rizzo was usually on the money in the trade market. That fact makes this deadline even weirder. Rizzo nailed plenty of trades both before and after this 2021 trade deadline. He just really struck out in 2021 and eventually it played a part in costing him his job.
