What have they got to lose?
Besides a lot of games against lottery teams, that is.
It’s getting frustrating, isn’t it? I tried to warn against panic. Perhaps that was projection. It may have been an ill-advised attempt at manifestation. It feels awfully trite now.
The Rockets have lost three straight and four of their last five. Alperen Sengun’s absence was an explanatory factor, until it wasn’t, and the Rockets lost to the Kings.
Against Sacramento, Ime Udoka looked frazzled. He committed to double
big man lineups that weren’t working. More puzzlingly, he prioritized Aaron Holiday over Reed Sheppard throughout the night. Holiday played 28 minutes to Sheppard’s 15.
That has to end – now.
Rockets must prioritize sophomore guard
If it hasn’t been clear, I’m not Sheppard’s most stalwart supporter. Yet, I couldn’t quite say that I’m a skeptic either. The most rational (albeit boring) stance on Sheppard is likely that the Rockets have no idea what he can be at this juncture:
Well, besides “better than Aaron Holiday.”
Sheppard has already cleared that bar. His 3.5 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) decimates Holiday’s -2.5 mark.
This should come as a shock to precisely nobody.
Sheppard was the third overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. He’s supposed to be better than a career journeyman like Holiday by now, and he is. Udoka’s tendency to lean on veterans isn’t merited if, simply put, the veterans aren’t as good as the young guys.
We can’t read Udoka’s mind, but his thought process feels transparent. Yes, Sheppard can be picked on defensively. That’s a Udoka bugaboo. It’s a fair point, but it just doesn’t matter when the alternative is Aaron Holiday. In some respects, this is comparable to the Bruno Fernando-over-Alperen Sengun fiasco that nearly led to riots in the streets of Houston.
(Side note: Holiday is a solid vet. BPM isn’t gospel. Some of this comes across as harsh, but let’s be honest, this is a replaceable veteran who shouldn’t be factoring into a lottery pick’s development.)
Despite Sheppard’s defensive deficiencies, the team succeeds when he’s on the floor. Per CleaningTheGlass, Houston’s most-used Sheppard lineup has him alongside Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., and Sengun. That group is +12.5 in 172 possessions. Any negative lineup featuring Sheppard has too few possessions to mean much of anything.
The data strongly suggests that Sheppard is overcoming his weaknesses. That’ll happen when you’ve got all-league three-point gravity. Defenses scramble to cover Sheppard from deep, which isn’t true for any other Rocket who isn’t a first-ballot future Hall of Famer.
The Rockets must take better advantage of Sheppard’s strengths.
It’s time for the Rockets to increase Sheppard’s playing time
Have I been too subtle? Let’s put a finer point on this:
Play Sheppard.
Play him more. Play him through his mistakes. Play him more than you play Aaron “Fine, I Guess” Holiday.
Play. Him.
On the season, Sheppard’s minutes are at 25.5 per game. That’s acceptable, although it’d be nice if that number rose by two or three minutes by season’s end.
Here’s what’s not acceptable: Benching him in favor of Holiday to make some kind of point. That should not happen again. Sheppard could have secured Houston’s victory against the Kings. It’s time to treat him like the high lottery pick he is. I ask again:
What have they got to lose?
