A Monday Night Football matchup between the Chicago Bears and the Seattle Seahawks is a circle-the-calendar game that NFL fans got excited about on schedule release day. Those games don’t always feel quite as big once the season gets rolling, but this one gets the full court press of hype (even more so with each team making a big-time trade). The (5-2) Bears are coming off a prime-time win over the New England Patriots, and the (4-3) Seahawks are coming off a prime-time win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
These are two legit Super Bowl contenders.
Ben Johnson’s Bears have one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, and Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks again have one of the league’s most suffocating defenses, but this game might come down to the other side of the ball.
Can Chicago’s defense slow down a Seahawks offense with a refocused rushing attack and one of the game’s best wide receivers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
The Bears’ huge trade for Jeffery Simmons, who has more tackles for loss since 2021 than any other defensive tackle in the NFL, will immediately help the run defense, and his ability to collapse the pocket will immediately help Chicago’s pass rush. I could see him on a limited snap count since he won’t know the calls, twists, and stunts, but he’ll play in some obvious passing or running situations.
But JSN will still be a problem.
Smith-Njigba, the 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, is having an even better 2026, averaging 8.3 receptions and 123.9 receiving yards per game. He’s the type of game-altering talent who can win a game on his own.
So far, Chicago’s defense has played better than many expected, but I don’t know how they’ll limit JSN. Our partners at FanDuel Sportsbook have his over/under on receptions at 7.5 and receiving yards at 99.5, and while those are high — relatively speaking — they seem easily attainable for him vs. Chicago’s secondary. The Bears don’t have a corner on the roster who can hang with him. But to be fair, neither do most teams. I like the over on both of those.
My guess is the Bears will be focused on stopping the run, knowing JSN will get his, while trying to heat up Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold into making mistakes. And now with a game-wrecking defensive tackle in Simmons, the Bears won’t need to blitz as much, so they’ll be able to keep a safety over the top of JSN a few more times.
Another over I like is Caleb Williams’ rushing yards, which is at 21.5. This will be his third game back after the hamstring injury, and the extra rest following their Thursday nighter should have his legs feeling good enough to take off when the opportunity presents itself.
If you were wondering about the over/under for Caleb’s passing yards, it’s at 227.5. Considering the most passing yards Seattle’s defense has allowed this year is 189, by Justin Herbert and Brock Purdy, that’s a decent-sized leap by the oddsmakers and what they think of Williams. I like the over here as well, but not by much, and mostly because I think the Bears may try the short passing game in place of the run, especially if Kyle Monangai misses another game.
As for the game itself, the Bears are a 3-point underdog, and I was teetering on who to pick in what I expect to be a close game, but the Simmons deal has me feeling too good to pick against the Bears.
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