With Alabama’s second bye week upon us, it’s time to take stock nationally. We have more than enough data at this point in the season. Conference standings are shaking out. And there is a queue beginning
to form for the national title.
We seem to say this every year, but in 2025, it really is relevant: There just aren’t a lot of great teams. And while that is certainly one way to approach it, there is another set of goggles through which you may peer: There may not be great teams, but there are a lot of very good ones. You have to go back perhaps a decade to find a national field this wide open, with so many cases to be made for (or against) your personal favorite to win it all.
That is generally not the case. Usually there is one (arguably a second) team that is head and shoulders above the field. You could make a case for at least half a dozen and perhaps a few more this year. There will be no clear cut favorite; there will only be a first among many equals. So, let’s try to make sense of it.
The Blog Poll is not a power poll. It is not biased by preseason polls (to the extent that I can manage). The criteria are nebulous, far-ranging, and capricious — strength of schedule, bad and good coaching, injuries, exigent circumstances, home/away results, defense or lack thereof, offense or lack thereof, line play, power poll-ishness, can you cover a spread (Vegas is pretty smart about how good a team is), head-to-head where possible or prudent, and my own lying eyeballs. Who you beat has to matter the most at the end of the day, and who you lose to is relevant to the extent a tiebreaker is required among several candidates.
Let’s dive in. Here’s your poll, then we’ll have more to say afterwards:
The Legitimate Contenders
You can make a case for half a dozen teams to lay claim to the top spot. We ultimately went with Alabama, because no one has done more against a tougher schedule — the Tide have more wins over the Sagarin Top 30 than all-but two teams have even played games against them (4-0), and both of those squads (Arkansas, Auburn) are a combined 0-8 against them. The data like them too (Opponent adjusted efficiency D 4th, OAE offense 9th). So they’re winning the hardest contests and doing so in ways the computers like too. In the AP Top 10, only Alabama and UGA have wins over other Top 10 teams…and the Tide has done it twice. At times this may be the worst good team in America, or its most resilient mediocre. But at some point you have to concede that results aren’t an accident, not against the No. 3 SOS.
Georgia is in a similar boat to ‘Bama. It hasn’t always been pretty, but they can beat anyone in the country on the right night…and like ‘Bama, probably lose to them as well. Their win over Ole Miss is looking better and better too, as the Rebels own wins are gaining currency. Ole Miss handed Tulane its only loss, beat LSU, and knocked OU out of the Top 10. Despite how flawed the Rebs are, few teams have done that much.
Texas A&M hasn’t played nearly as tough a schedule (It’s more in-line with a B1G SOS), but like their Midwestern counterpart, Indiana, they’re absolutely laying waste to their opponents. They’ve had an escape here or there, and I’m still not sold on that secondary, but their line play, speed on the outside, and pass rush are fearsome. I think Ohio State’s defense is quite good, but I have questions about an offense that still doesn’t trust Julian Sayin, who’s been living off YAC and the occasional deep shot against bad teams. This is basically Texas with a more competent offense. If (when) we get an Ohio State-Indiana B1GCG, I think the worm turns this year. I’ve not seen any indication that the Buckeyes are better than the Hoosiers.
I like you, but…
There are some very good Top 10 teams out there, but for one reason or another, they just don’t seem to have the oomph to get over the finish line. We have to start with Vanderbilt, who simply does not beat themselves. Their pasting in Tuscaloosa reveals their major weaknesses: You can out-efficient them, and they lack high end talent. Miami has its usual problem of a suspect secondary collapsing against competent teams, with the added bonus of Carson Beck doing likewise. This team isn’t done losing. That road trip to Pitt looks remarkably dangerous.
Oregon, Notre Dame share the same issue in that they’ve lost every single game against a peer-level competitor; they have made their hay kicking the hell out of bad teams. The two best wins between them are Illinois and Boise State. And, let’s be honest, Dan Lanning is just White James Franklin. I don’t trust that guy to cut down the proverbial nets whatsoever. Sadly, both can probably waltz into the playoffs despite their lack of quality wins too. Our best hope for a playoff of actually qualified teams is to have one of those weird Notre Dame no-shows under Freeman, and Washington doing Washington things to torment the Ducks.
Georgia Tech and BYU are a Great Value version of ND/Oregon. Hailing from less regarded conferences, they’ve won ‘em all, which is all you can ask. The problem is two-fold, 1. “all” has been an exceptional buffet of ACC and Big 12 dross (No. 53 and 50 SOS, respectively), and 2. They’ve not necessarily impressed getting there. Analytically, they’re nothing special either. The single best unit among them, adjusting for opponent, is the Bees’ defense (7th). But you do have to give credit to BYU at least; they could easily have a trio of losses, and like the Tide, they’re mentally tough and always seem to find a play when they need it most. If these two make they playoffs, they should have to play one another, just as the Ducks should have to face Notre Dame.
Probably Out of Meaningful Consideration
For my money, the most talented team in the B12, Texas Tech could have been a natty contender (even if the darkest of horses), but the loss of Behren Morton has led to regressions team-wide. McGuire also has a penchant for outcoaching himself. On the other end of the spectrum, Houston may be the best coached team in that league — even above BYU. This is Vandy’s Big 12 cousin: They don’t beat themselves, they win with efficiency, and they way outplay their talent level. Imagine what Willie can do when he actually gets a good roster? Satterfield’s emergence at Cincinnati has been very unexpected, given how he petered out at Louisville. But he’s reinvented himself and his team away from a bedrock percentages ball control guy into a light ‘em up, win B12 shootouts”-sort. The difference here is he kept the defense too, just like Texas Tech did.
So, what about Louisville? The Cards upended Miami? Why not? Well, that’s also the only win they can really hang their hats on. They find themselves in the BYU/Georgia Tech camp of “average schedule, not always great against it.” But unlike that tandem, they’ve also drawn a loss. They need to run the table. I don’t see a non-title ACC or B12 team getting an at-large this year, outside of Miami. And that likely is going to doom their cousins in Charlottesville too: the Virginia Cavaliers offense has been awesome. The defense, less so…and they also have an L on their mediocre schedule.
Just Good, Solid Top 25 teams
You’ve got your panoply of two-loss SEC and Big 10 squads here: Tennessee, who can’t defend a sneeze; the Oklahoma Sooners, who can’t score in a red light district. Put ‘em together, and you’d have one great squad. Texas and Michigan, with outstanding defenses and some marginal play under center (and that’s putting it mildly, in the case of the Horns). Of the pair, the Wolverines may be in the best shape: they’ll keep feeding Haynes two dozen carries for 3.8 yards until he busts one (it’s happened every game this year, except one). Texas makes up for a bad running game with a better defense, but mercy is that offense putrid. They did show us something though coming back from 17 down yesterday, and then laying on the clamps down the stretch. That was a dangerous road game, and an even more impressive comeback. It’s only fair these two square off in some January Florida bowl.
Throw Mizzou in here too, though their prognosis is worse. Beau Pribula wasn’t great, but now he’s utterly lost. And despite how deep that running game is, and how stout the defense may be, there’s just not enough in the tank here to make a serious run. Sitting just outside the Top 25 is a tangled mess of Iowa (who has rebounded to play great ball, despite no quarterback); Washington (which could be the best team, if they had a secondary); and Nebraska (who actually finally have an offense, but a rebuilt DL is getting slaughtered).
Midmajor Hosses
Memphis, down by three scores at one point to Arkansas, pulled off one miracle against the Hogs earlier this year. Saturday, down three scores again to No. 18 USF, they did it again to keep their playoff hopes alive. At this point, it looks like games against Navy and Tulane will be for an AACCG berth, and chance for the CFP. You could just as easily put the Tulane Green Wave here as well — they meet the Tigers in two weeks for the same opportunity. Just outside the Top 25 is probably the most dangerous team around: North Texas may not have anything resembling a defense, but you absolutely do not want to tangle with the offense. And, with some chaos, even USF can slide back into the discussion.
As usual, the AAC is the most entertaining midmajor. But with the downturn of the Mountain this year, every game is for far greater stakes. Like USF, given the right things panning out, Boise State can find itself back in the G5 discussion as well. Their two losses are to Notre Dame, and a fluke in Tampa, where they dominated the stat sheet but a few uncharacteristic turnovers gave the USF Bulls the win. This team can easily get back to the playoffs with some breaks. James Madison is its usual dominating self in the Sun Belt. But, they’re not a realistic playoff contender, given a bad distracted loss and the general down year the SBC is experiencing. They’re still awesome though.
And, finally, we have North Dakota State. Of course they’re synonymous with FCS juggernaut. But they’re on another plane this year, and Saturday they proved it, heading to Brookings and absolutely dismantling the No. 2 South Dakota State Jackrabbits 38-7 to claim supremacy over the entire country. They’re at least as good as your average ACC or Big 12 team. I don’t think half of the Top 25 would want to play a one-off with the Bison, even though a 53-man roster obviously can’t compete in a full FBS schedule. They may not play another game this season under 20 points. In fact, their closest game all season was a 17-point road win over another Top 10 team. They usually win by far, far more than that. It may be the best FCS team I’ve ever seen in my life.
Alright, that’s our brief survey. It’s your turn to sound off. Who’s too high? Too low? Who’s the real No. 1? Are there actually any great teams this year?
