With the biggest series of the year (so far) looming ahead this week, I thought it’d be a good idea to look into what the White Sox do well — specifically against the pitches that our 3 best starters (all of whom are slated to pitch against Chicago) throw.
We’ll start with Gavin Williams (who is starting tomorrow).
Gavin has really struggled recently with an ERA of 4.65 in his last 10 starts. He’s slashed his fastball usage from 28.5% in April to just under 10% in June. He’s been primarily curveball/sinker/sweeper
this month, with some cutter and 4-seam usage mixed in. We’ll go in order of highest usage to lowest, looking at each pitcher’s 3-4 most used pitches and the metric range around their pitches.
Gavin Williams
Curveball. 80-84 mph, 11-15in vertical drop
Jacob Gonzalez, .907 xwOBA
Sam Antonacci, .491 xwOBA
Tristan Peters, .161 xwOBA
Edgar Quero, .099 xwOBA
Braden Montgomery, .040 xwOBA
Sinker. 95-97 mph, 14-17in armside break
Chase Meidroth, .282 xwOBA | 10.5% whiff%
Miguel Vargas, .353 xwOBA | 20% whiff%
Andrew Benintendi, .567 xwOBA | 25% whiff%
Tristan Peters, .593 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
Sam Antonacci, .370 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
Colson Montgomery, .469 xwOBA | 28.6% whiff%
Sweeper. 86-88 mph, 9-11in gloveside break
Austin Hays, .000 xwOBA | 100% whiff%
Colson Montgomery, .701 xwOBA
You’ll notice that, on breakers like Gavin’s, the White Sox have very little seen pitches like those. Leaning on those pitches will be the key to his success. Against 4-seams like Gavin’s, the White Sox have the 7th worst xwOBA and highest whiff rate (.300 xwOBA, 28% whiff%). The 4-seam and his breakers will be the key to his success, and both his success with his breakers and the White Sox fragility against fastballs like his bode well for his tidings tomorrow. Of course now that I’ve said that, he’ll implode.
Parker Messick
Messick has been mostly the same pitcher (by usage) all year. He’s been 4-seam, changeup, sinker around 70% of the time all year.
4-Seam Fastball. 92-95 mph, 15-18in vertical break
Chase Meidroth, .316 xwOBA | 7.7% whiff%
Miguel Vargas, .605 xwOBA | 25% whiff%
Edgar Quero, .005 xwOBA | 10% whiff%
Colson Montgomery, .472 xwOBA | 40% whiff%
Randal Grichuk (RHH specialist), .731 xwOBA | 10% whiff%
Changeup. 84-87 mph, 13-16in armside break
Chase Meidroth, .362 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
Edgar Quero, .390 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
Randal Grichuk, .051 xwOBA | 20% whiff%
Colson Montgomery, .112 xwOBA | 33.3% whiff%
Miguel Vargas, .341 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
Sinker. 91-94 mph, 11-15in armside break
Chase Meidroth, .385 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
Miguel Vargas, 2.042 xwOBA (not a typo) | 0% whiff%
Sam Antonacci, .106 xwOBA | 25% whiff%
Colson Montgomery, .307 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
The key, for Messick, will be location. If he can expertly tunnel his fastball and changeup (while working sinkers in to right-handers), he’ll do well. The White Sox are an extremely young lineup, and Messick’s craftiness, for a lack of a better word, should give him an advantage over an inexperienced lineup.
Tanner Bibee
Bibee has really changed up his mix in the last few months but, so far this month, he’s gone almost exclusively fastball (sinker/cutter/4-seam). He’s dropped off his breaking ball usage almost entirely to account for that. It’s worked well for him so far (2.24 ERA in 3 starts in June. 18K:6BB in 20.1 innings)
Sinker. 92-96 mph, 13-16in armside break
Chase Meidroth, .268 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
Miguel Vargas, .646 xwOBA | 14.3% whiff%
Sam Antonacci, .499 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
Andrew Benintendi, .338 xwOBA | 18.2% whiff%
Edgar Quero, .088 xwOBA | 33.3% whiff%
Tristan Peters, .534 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
Cutter. 85-87 mph, 5-8in gloveside break
Chase Meidroth, .368 xwOBA | 37.5% whiff%
Miguel Vargas, .000 xwOBA | 33.3% whiff%
Andrew Benintendi, .654 xwOBA | 66.7% whiff%
Sam Antonacci, .428 xwOBA | 0% whiff%
Tristan Peters, .166 xwOBA | 33.3% whiff%
4-Seam Fastball. 93-96 mph, 15-18in vertical break
Sam Antonacci, .534 xwOBA | 20% whiff%
Colson Montgomery, .306 xwOBA | 30% whiff%
Miguel Vargas, .525 xwOBA | 31.3% whiff%
Tristan Peters, .343 xwOBA | 29.6% whiff%
Chase Meidroth, .274 xwOBA | 22.2% whiff%
Andrew Benintendi, .445 xwOBA | 16.7% whiff%
The key for Bibee: no same-handed sinkers. He’s probably going to need to mix back in his curveball (and maybe changeup) for this lineup. Not necessarily sure how well he’ll fare being mainly sinker-cutter, but if he commands it well, perhaps this mix could work.
