DID YOU KNOW?
Big East play starts for Marquette men’s basketball WEDNESDAY NIGHT. It’s true! They get things going with a home game against Georgetown on December 17th. We’ll get to a full game preview of that later on down the road, but with league play right in front of us AND Providence/Butler starting off conference action for everyone back on Saturday, it’s probably a good time to check in on the other 10 teams around the league to see how everyone has been doing so far this year. However, instead
of just doing a straight ahead “here are the teams in alphabetical order beep borp” rundown, I’m throwing a curveball into the mix!
Or rather, I’m returning to a curveball I started throwing a couple of years ago. Is it still a curveball if it’s turning into a recurring bit?
ANYWAY
The 11 Big East teams have been ordered by “biggest change from the preseason,” but I’m not just using one source. I took the preseason KenPom.com rankings as noted on each team’s page, and then compared everyone to where they were following the end of action on Saturday, December 13th. I did the same for BartTorvik.com’s preseason rankings, but I didn’t just look at the current rankings for the comparison. I used the filter feature to remove any preseason projections or estimations and looked at the pure numbers of how everyone’s been playing up through the end of business on Saturday. If CBS Sports’ Gary Parrish can filter data, so can I.
That gave me two change in ranking numbers for every one of the 11 teams in the league, and I just smooshed them together. This year, there is just one team that KenPom and Torvik disagreed on, which means they were slightly up in one ranking and slightly down in the other. There’s also one team that is exactly where they started in the preseason in one, but down in the other. Everyone else was either on the plus side in both or on the minus side in both, so there’s no doubt as to what direction all of those teams have been heading through this point of the season. They’re all sorted below from biggest positive change to biggest negative change, and I’ll tell you this right now: There are only four teams that moved in a positive direction…… and two of them kiiiiind of had a notable advantage to doing that, one bigger than the other.
There’s also a quick info dump for every team: Record, stats leaders, and best win/worst loss according to the NET rankings — just for a nice mix of data here — on Monday morning. I also went over to T-Rank and grabbed the current Ranketology as of Monday morning — which is seeding the bracket based on the most likely outcomes for the year according to the algorithm — to give everyone an NCAA tournament projection. T-Rank currently gives 27 teams outside the field of 68 at least a 0.1% chance of making it in, so if you see a “No” for any given team, then they’re outside the “First 27 Out” according to the algorithm.
Everything make sense there? Okay, let’s jump into it!
Seton Hall Pirates: +133
Record: 10-1
Scoring Leader: AJ Staton-McCray, 14.3 ppg
Rebounding Leader: Stephon Payne III, 5.6 rpg
Assists Leader: Budd Clark, 5.5 apg
Best NET Win: vs #36 NC State in Maui, 85-74
Only NET Loss: vs #37 USC in Maui, 83-81
NCAA Projection: #11 seed, Last Four In
Let’s start by being very nice to Seton Hall. If we flip over to the BartTorvik.com Wins Above Bubble bracket, which is a measurement of what they are right this second and not a projection of how Big East play is going to go for them, they’re a #6 seed in the NCAA tournament. The full total of the Torvik projections have them going 11-9 in the Big East, and same for KenPom. That’s looking at it with a teeny bit of preseason projections yet to filter out, and if we just look at results for the Pirates? Torvik says they’re a top 40 team, and I doubt a top 40 team is going 11-9 in this league.
On the topic of SHU’s record: What would be the worst record they could put up and still end up getting Shaheen Holloway Coach of the Year honors in the Big East? I don’t know about the exact number, but if the Pirates are a plausible at worst NCAA tournament team when it’s time to vote, he’s running away with it, right? Everyone wrote the Pirates off. They were 2-18 last year with one of the worst offenses in the country. They picked up 15 points in the Big East preseason poll, and if all 10 coaches voted them last, they would have gotten 10 points. Seton Hall was essentially universally agreed on as the worst team in this league with just two players returning from last year’s rotation.
And yet, none of that matters. Hell, they’ve gotten essentially nothing from those two returning players, as Jahseem Felton is done for the year with an ACL tear and Godswill Erheriene hasn’t played yet because of a foot issue. Holloway has built what appears to be an NCAA tourney team on the fly, largely because they have KenPom’s #12 defense.
Butler Bulldogs: +54
Record: 8-2, 1-0 Big East
Scoring Leader: Finley Bizjack, 18.8 ppg
Rebounding Leader: Michael Ajayi, 11.9 rpg (#1 in the Big East)
Assists Leader: Jalen Jackson, 3.8 apg
Best NET Win: vs #21 Virginia, 80-73, on a neutral floor
Worst NET Loss: vs #39 Boise State, 77-68
NCAA Projection: Sixth team out
If we were putting this together on December 5th, there would probably be a lot more to be enthused about for the Bulldogs. Instead, we’re doing this after they lost at home to Boise State and needed two overtimes to beat Providence at home to start Big East play. If the Broncos end up staying a top 50 NET team, that’s not a bad loss, it’s just not a loss you’d like to take if you’re trying to prove that your 7-1 start to the season, including wins over Virginia and South Carolina, was for real. But hey, sometimes your otherwise strong three-point shooting disappears for a night and you shoot 22% and lose to a pretty good team.
When you follow that up one week later by needing 10 extra minutes to barely squeak past a Friars team that’s going nowhere in a hurry this season…. yeah, that’s not exactly what you want to see in terms of “this is definitely going fine for Thad Matta.” Last year, Butler was 7-1 on December 5th… and 7-10 on January 12th. Year before? 10-2 on December 20th… and 11-7 on January 17th. Year before? 8-3 on December 11th, 10-8 on January 11th.
In other words: So far, so good for Butler…. but the next four weeks are going to be critical when it comes to calming the nerves of the Bulldogs faithful. They’ve seen this start before and it hasn’t ended well.
Villanova Wildcats: +25
Record: 8-2
Scoring Leader: Bryce Lindsay, 17.2 ppg
Rebounding Leader: Duke Brennan, 11.7 rpg
Assists Leader: Acaden Lewis, 5.6 apg (#1 in the Big East)
Best NET Win: vs #167 Pitt, 79-61
Worst NET Loss: vs #6 BYU, 71-66, on a neutral floor
NCAA Projection: #11 seed, Last Four In
When your worst loss was by 5 points in your season opener and your only other loss is to the team that keeps hanging 100 on people lately and you kept them to just 89 even in a 28 point loss, you’re doing okay.
It’s not great, because those are the only two games that Villanova has played — PLAYED — in the top three NET quadrants so far. I’m not going to say that was the wrong decision for Kevin Willard, especially because the Wildcats don’t have a sub-280 NET opponent. Willard was stepping into a new spot with essentially a brand new roster, so they didn’t really challenge themselves all that much. Okay, I get it, no problem.
That just means that Saturday’s game at Fiserv Forum against Wisconsin is really important to them now, and they’re going to have to assemble an NCAA tournament resume out of the Big East schedule… and that’s not looking so hot for them. Still, Nova Nation has been getting to this point of the season in a hole as far as a resume goes for the past few years, so this is already a step forward for them.
Oh, and: Acaden Lewis has already been Big East Freshman of the Week twice, and if he holds onto that league leading assists average the rest of the year…. well, that should pretty much wrap up his trophy, right?
Connecticut Huskies: +2
Record: 10-1
Scoring Leader: Solo Ball, 14.5 ppg
Rebounding Leader: Tarris Reed, 7.3 rpg
Assists Leader: Silas Demary, 5.1 apg
Best NET Win: vs #6 BYU, 86-64, in Boston
Only NET Loss: vs #4 Arizona, 71-67
NCAA Projection: #1 seed
UConn is the up in one, down in the other team. To be clear, it was going to be hard for the Huskies to end up on the positive side of the list this season because they started KenPom at #5 and Torvik at #10. Their best case scenario was “is best team in the country, +13”. Instead, they’re #7 in KenPom and #6 in the filtered Torvik numbers, and from a 10,000 foot view, that’s totally fine.
Zoom in, and you realize that they are were they are with starting center Tarris Reed going in and out of the lineup and possible BE Freshman of the Year candidate Braylon Mullins missing the first six games of the year. Both men missed the loss to Arizona…. and UConn was up 64-63 with less than two minutes to play anyway. Healthy, they might be the best team in the country. Dinged up? They might be mean enough to get to the title game anyway.
St. John’s Red Storm: -7
Record: 6-3
Scoring Leader: Bryce Hopkins, 14.9 ppg
Rebounding Leader: Zuby Ejiofor, 7.2 rpg
Assists Leader: Zuby Ejiofor, 2.8 apg
Best NET Win: vs #66 Baylor, 96-81, on a neutral floor
Worst NET Loss: vs #33 Auburn, 85-74, on a neutral floor
NCAA Projection: #5 seed
The Red Storm is the neutral in one, down in the other team in the Big East that I mentioned up top. Even their drop in Torvik is ultimately a neutral move because the filtered data has them at #15…. while they’re #16 in KenPom. Essentially the same in both computers!
The question for you, the discerning college basketball consumer, is whether or not you want to be worried about the Johnnies. Through nine games, they don’t appear to be the national title contender that their preseason AP poll ranking of #5 might have indicated because they’ve come up short in their three biggest non-conference games. Through nine games, head coach Rick Pitino has used five different starting lineups, and of the eight guys who have started at least one game this year, only Dylan Darling has missed a game. In that case, only one missed game, and it was before he started a game for the Red Storm anyway.
Does Pitino have a handle on this team yet? Can they live up to the elite efficiency numbers that they’ve been putting up — top 25 on both ends of the floor per KenPom — and run off a bunch of wins in Big East play? Or are they going to get bit here and there in league play and have to just “settle” for being a middle of the road tournament team?
Xavier Musketeers: -38
Record: 8-3
Scoring Leader: Tre Carroll, 16.9 ppg
Rebounding Leader: Filip Borovicanin, 7.4 rpg
Assists Leader: Malik Moore, 4.2 apg
Best NET Win: vs #99 West Virginia, 78-68, on a neutral floor
Worst NET Loss: vs #57 Santa Clara, 87-68
NCAA Projection: No
I want to stop here for one second and point out that the sixth most positively developing team in the entire league is down 23 in KenPom and down 15 in Torvik. SIXTH. BEST. It’s about to get real dark around here.
Okay, here’s the good news for Xavier fans: The Musketeers have won five in a row as I type this. Yes, they’re currently #85 in the KenPom rankings, but they were also #111 heading into their win over Old Dominion and #97 when the winning streak kicked off with the victory over West Virginia. The loss to Santa Clara was in the third game of the season, and as far as home losses go, that’s not even that awful, especially compared to their near disasters against Marist and Le Moyne to start the year.
This is a roster that Richard Pitino assembled after he was hired. There’s nothing wrong with it taking a minute to come together a little bit, and at least right now, there’s evidence that Pitino is figuring his team out. If that leads to them outperforming their current 9-11 projection for Big East play, they have a chance to play their way into the NCAA tournament, and that’s not so bad. Worst case scenario: Tre Carroll has established himself as a Musketeers legend after his emphatic ZIP ‘EM UPs during the Cincinnati game.
Providence Friars: -58
Record: 7-5, 0-1 Big East
Scoring Leader: Jason Edwards, 19.2 ppg (#1 in the Big East)
Rebounding Leader: Oswin Erhunmwunse, 7.3 rpg
Assists Leader: Stefan Vaaks, 3.5 apg
Best NET Win: vs #103 Rhode Island, 90-71
Worst NET Loss: vs #70 Wisconsin, 104-83, on a neutral floor
NCAA Projection: No
Providence was picked to finish fourth in the Big East this season. The computers had the Friars right around #50 heading into the season, meaning they had an upside of being an NCAA tournament team.
Instead, they are 1-4 against high major competition in non-conference games, and they needed to beat a Penn State team that’s outside the KenPom top 100 right now to get that one win. Instead, they opened up Big East play with a fifth loss against high major competition for their second overtime loss of the season.
The really annoying thing for Friars fans? This team can score like crazy. #33 in offensive efficiency per KenPom, top 50 in effective field goal percentage, turnover rate, and two-point shooting percentage, top 90 in three-point shooting. If they could defend worth a lick, they might just have something here. But they don’t, they give up a ton of three-point shooting and don’t force turnovers, and even the PC offense can’t keep up with that.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Providence snag a win that they have no business getting this year, three-point luck will steal one for them…. but I’d be willing to bet that the flip side of that coin kicks them in the shin at least once, too.
Georgetown Hoyas: -78
Record: 7-3
Scoring Leader: KJ Lewis, 15.6 ppg
Rebounding Leader: KJ Lewis & “Not That” Caleb Williams, 5.9 rpg
Assists Leader: Malik Mack, 4.5 apg
Best NET Win: vs #28 Clemson, 79-74
Worst NET Loss: vs #79 Dayton, 84-79 in overtime, on a neutral floor
NCAA Projection: No
“Wait, Georgetown doesn’t have any truly awful losses, how are they falling this far?”
Well, beating UMBC by nine and blowing a lead against Saint Peter’s before winning in overtime back on Saturday is not helping them. Those are, from a computer counting perspective, bad wins. Beating Maryland by 10 is less useful than it was a the time, and on top of that, the Hoyas got shelled by North Carolina and the Miami loss wasn’t exactly close, either.
This season was going okay for them. Ed Cooley’s team had gone from #82 in the KenPom preseason numbers to #73 heading into their fifth straight win to start the year. It’s all downhill from there, and they’re now #103 as I type this on Monday morning. They can’t shoot, they don’t defend, and the end result is things are drifting further and further from the chances that Cooley ever figures this situation out.
Creighton Bluejays: -112
Record: 5-5
Scoring Leader: Josh Dix, 12.3 ppg
Rebounding Leader: Blake Harper, 5.3 rpg
Assists Leader: Nik Graves, 3.2 apg
Best NET Win: vs #127 Oregon, 76-66
Worst NET Loss: vs #68 Kansas State, 83-67
NCAA Projection: No
Another quick break: When I did this last year, Seton Hall was the worst team in the Big East….. at -90. There also the only team that was -70 or worse. We’re not done yet and we’re already into triple digits.
Part of Creighton’s problem is merely that Jackson McAndrew suffered a foot injury and is done for the year. They’re 2-4 without him. He clearly wasn’t the sun and the moon, averaging 9.0 points and 5.7 rebounds in the three full games he played, but the guy was preseason all-Big East for a reason, and now the Jays are moving forward without him.
Another part of Creighton’s problem? Ryan Kalkbrenner is wearing a Charlotte Hornets jersey. After five years of the Bluejays ranking somewhere in the top 50 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, they’re #87 in the country now that the four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year is out of school. The question back in 2021 was “Can Greg McDermott coach a top 40 defense again?” Now it’s “Can he coach one without Kalkbrenner?” So far? The answer is no, and that raises another question: Who’s in charge for the rest of this quickly fading season: McDermott, or newly assigned coach-in-waiting Alan Huss?
DePaul Blue Demons: -121
Record: 8-3
Scoring Leader: CJ Gunn, 14.2 ppg
Rebounding Leader: NJ Benson, 6.5 rpg
Assists Leader: Layden Blocker, 3.5 apg
Best NET Win: at #95 Wichita State, 61-58
Worst NET Loss: vs #152 Buffalo, 66-53
NCAA Projection: No
Think about this: DePaul’s numbers are being propped up by beating Wichita State riiiiiiiight before I snagged the KenPom & Torvik data to put this list together.
It’s not just that they didn’t have a NET top 100 win before that, it’s that they struggled with Stonehill and Arkansas-Pine Bluff. I don’t think anyone was necessarily expecting big things from the Blue Demons this season, but this certainly doesn’t look like the possible step forward from last year either. The three guys listed in the stats leaders are all returning from Chris Holtmann’s first year in charge of the Blue Demons, but for now, it looks like DePaul’s going to have a hard time escaping a bottom three finish in the Big East.
Marquette Golden Eagles: -131
Record: 5-6
Scoring Leader: Chase Ross, 18.6 ppg
Rebounding Leader: Ben Gold, 7.0 rpg
Assists Leader: Sean Jones, 4.6 apg (kinda)
Best NET Win: vs #224 Valparaiso, 75-72, in overtime
Worst NET Loss: vs #162 Maryland, 89-82
NCAA Projection: lol, okay, sure, good one
yay, the Big East’s only sub-.500 team
woooooo
sweet christmas
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