NOTE: This article was 90% complete when the news broke that J.J. McCarthy had been traded to the New York Giants for a 2027 5th-round pick.
My thoughts on the trade? Glad you didn’t ask. Not a fan. Nah, I hate it. Why? Let me count the ways:
First, it’s official: we’ve now blown through three 1st-round QBs in 15 years. It makes me sick. Now we have zero QBs signed for next season. Wonderful. What’s the strategy? If Kyler Murray turns it around and looks like 2018 Patrick Mahomes, what’s the guarantee
he’ll come back? The Vikings are highly leveraged, with top contracts across other premier positions. If he continues to struggle, at 3-0 already, we likely won’t be in a position to select any of the top QBs available. Flores’ defense is playing at a remarkable, lights-out level, and we’d win at least two to three more games with me at QB. We are the Vikings, so anything is possible, but it’s extremely unlikely. Obviously, Carson Wentz is not the long-term solution. In other news, Kirk Cousins is over there leading the NFL in touchdown passes for the freakin’ 3-0 Raiders with a 107.2 QB rating. Yay!
Second, it appears to confirm that Kevin O’Connell didn’t want McCarthy in the first place and that it was solely a Kwesi Adofo-Mensah decision. Despite feel-good PR quotes to the contrary, KOC apparently believes young QBs can, in fact, fail organizations.
The “QB competition” in training camp now looks like a ploy to keep McCarthy’s trade value high in case a starting QB went down before the season, and a team grew desperate. When that didn’t happen, there was no choice but to drop him behind Wentz because the games would begin to count. What other conclusion can one draw? If he had any confidence that McCarthy could be the answer, why would he give up on a 23-year-old on a rookie contract for potentially two more seasons?
To show how naïve I was, I actually believed the plan was to ride with Murray in 2026 as McCarthy developed, and then, short of a magical run to at least the NFC Championship Game, hand it back to a (finally) prepared McCarthy in 2027. McCarthy would be on the trading block only if Murray proved himself and signed an extension. Not one of my better takes.
Third, am I imagining that, despite the developmental hiccups, McCarthy was 6-4 as a starter and that the road games against the Lions and Cowboys last year happened? The home game against the Commanders? The 4th-quarter comeback against the Bears? Were there no things to build on? Jayden Daniels can’t stay on the field. Drake Maye’s play so far in Year 2 looks like last year could have been a mirage, aided by a historically cupcake schedule. Are the Commanders and Patriots giving up on them?
Let me conclude this rant by quoting… myself.
Giving up after 10 starts would be incredibly misguided. If he goes on to become a great quarterback for another team and we’re back to square one in five years with no Super Bowl appearances, it could fracture a large part of the long-time fan base. That could be the final straw for those whose scars go back several decades. How much suffering can the human spirit endure? The Vikings seem to exist to answer that question.
Best of luck in New York, J.J. McCarthy.
We now return to our regularly scheduled programming.
Week 3 Observations: Mixed Emotions
Is this another 2016 or 2017?
The Minnesota Vikings went 3-0 on Sunday, thanks to Brian Flores’ dominant defense and strong special teams. The offense was apparently there, too.
As noted, a win is a win. There are no gimmes in the NFL, especially on the road, and the Buccaneers are a talented and dangerous team. It felt great to start 3-0, but that high quickly gave way to the creeping dread only Minnesota Vikings fans know.
Winning like this isn’t sustainable, even though Flores and company will clearly try. About 10 minutes after the post-win high wore off, my tortured Vikings memory bank instantly transported me back to 2016, for good reason. Strong defense, quarterback chaos, and a 5-0 start. The record was smoke and mirrors, as we became just the seventh team in NFL history to start 5-0 and miss the playoffs. Of course, one of them was the 2003 Vikings, who went 6-0 and accomplished the unthinkable. I’d take those Shaun Hill-Sam Bradford offenses at this point, though. I quickly took that memory, crammed it into the smallest container I could find, and placed the heaviest object I could carry on top of it to ensure it never, ever escaped again.
Then I do what I always do: convince myself otherwise. Sometimes reality comes along for the ride. In this case, it wasn’t difficult. I fast-forwarded a year to 2017. There was a strong defense and early quarterback chaos, but everything was just fine – well, for the rest of the season, anyway. A 13-3 record and a first-round playoff bye.
After Sunday’s game, I’m torn about which direction this team is headed – and I hate it. Let’s recap it all.
THE UTTERLY AMAZING
The Flores defense. Listen, I’m not going to heap more praise on Flores and the defensive unit because that would be impossible. The numbers are the numbers: 1st in sacks, 1st in QB hits, 1st in fewest points per drive, 1st in DVOA, and 1st in EPA. Only 13.7 points allowed per game against three Pro Bowl-caliber QBs.
The scariest part? The two long scoring plays Flores’ unit has allowed – the Christian Watson play in Week 1, and the Ted Hurst play on Sunday – stemmed from miscommunications that should be easy to fix moving forward.
One reason for optimism, given the historical comparisons above, is that while those Mike Zimmer defenses were great, this is on another level. I’ve never seen a Vikings defense this dominant. I was entering my teenage years in the late ’80s, so maybe I am shortchanging those excellent units, but I think we are in uncharted territory post-Purple People Eaters.
Oh, and there’s this…
Will Reichard, hero. “Kudos, my hero/Leaving all the best/You know my hero/The one that’s on/There goes my hero/Watch him as he goes” – Foo Fighters.
THE GOOD
Myles Price and the Special Teams. Special teams coach Matt Daniels has the unit cooking, ranking 2nd in the NFL in EPA while flying all over the field. Myles Price was the difference yesterday and is playing like an All-Pro after three weeks. We all know how amazing the baby-faced assassin with the stellar hair has been. Let’s hope the all-around great play continues.
The insurance policy offseason strategy. That’s what I called the front office’s actions last spring. This is a loaded roster that went 9-8 last season, despite arguably having the worst quarterback play in the NFL. This team needed insurance, and not the kind Flo the Progressive lady peddles on television.
First, they needed to bring Flores back at all costs.
Second, they needed a deep enough quarterback room to weather any storm, so Carson Wentz was brought back.
We’re 3-0 thanks to those two prescient moves.
Third, they brought in Jauan Jennings to cover for an injury to Justin Jefferson or Jordan Addison. Well, we are there. Although we avoided the worst-case scenario with Jefferson’s ankle injury, the safe bet may be to sit him against the 0-3 Dolphins. I remember Adam Thielen rushed back from a high ankle sprain in 2021, and it didn’t go well. Making sure he’s 100% for the post-bye gauntlet of @Det, Bills, @Packers, and @49ers should be the priority.
While Jennings hasn’t factored in the offense yet, he shouldered the #1 workload in 2024 after injuries in San Francisco. Jordan Addison proved he can be a #1 in 2023 when Jefferson hurt his hamstring. You could do a lot worse than Addison-Jennings or Jefferson-Jennings if the injury bug bites again this season.
THE BAD
Kyler Murray so far. After one full game and 11 snaps in another, Murray is completing only 53% of his passes for 186 yards, 5.5 YPA, with 1 TD and 2 INTs. Sunday was uncomfortable viewing. Losing Jefferson early was enormous, but Murray looked unsettled and uncomfortable in the pocket all afternoon. While the Buccaneers clearly played well in pass coverage, he had time in the pocket to create things off-script, which is a strength. It’s also baffling that he didn’t try to create more opportunities on the ground. Even if the Bucs were spying him, he’s been effective under those circumstances in the past. It’s nothing new.
I want to stress: Kyler Murray should be fine because history supports that. In a division where he faced the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks defenses twice a year, he completed 67% of his passes, averaged 235 passing yards per game, and posted a 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio over seven seasons.
The evidence points to something beyond individual quarterback play, which leads me to…
THE UGLY
Kevin O’Connell’s passing game. I’ve been consciously enjoying the view from my head in the sand, but it can’t be ignored any longer. Something is horribly wrong with the passing game since last season. Yes, there were first-time starters J.J. McCarthy and Max Brosmer, but Carson Wentz and Murray are proven veterans. Either way, the common denominator has been horrendous offensive output. Or should I say horrendous and offensive output? With this level of talent, it seems inexcusable.
People have been talking about it all over social media.
The Will Ragatz post was especially damning. In the past 11 games, the Vikings have had more than 200 passing yards just once. That was the allegedly horrible J.J. McCarthy, who had 250 passing yards in Week 15 last year. No one else reached 182 yards in the other 10 games. How this is possible in the modern NFL, where every rule now benefits the offense, with our solid offensive line and elite receivers, and with any quarterback deemed good enough to be on an NFL roster, is beyond me. It’s like revisiting the pre-Favre Brad Childress/Leslie Frazier eras without Adrian Peterson to lean on.
Whether it’s scheme predictability, poor film and game planning, failure to make in-game adjustments, or a combination of all three, I don’t know. But this has got to improve if the Vikings have any hope of doing anything of substance the rest of the year. The way we’ve gone 3-0 is simply unsustainable for an entire season. Flores and the defense will try, though.
CONCLUSION
It’s never boring with this team. Discussion will justifiably center on the J.J. McCarthy trade this week, but the fact is that the Vikings sit at 3-0, with two division wins and a third in the NFC. For what it’s worth, we enter October as the #1 seed in the conference.
To quote Jerry Glanville, the NFL stands for “not for long” because situations can change quickly and unexpectedly. We may be able to get past the Dolphins and their “March for Arch” this Sunday with under 250 yards, but the schedule then gets much tougher, starting with a game against the dangerous New Orleans Saints (my preseason pick to win the NFC South).
3-0 can turn into 4-4 before you know it. Oh, Shawn, you’re just being dramatic. We’ll be fine. Really? May I present the 2016 Minnesota Vikings?
KOC needs to fix this offense quickly to make the next three months more pleasant. Watching Case Keenum quarterback the Bears to a surprisingly easy victory over the 2-0 Eagles on Monday Night Football last night reminded me of something. Oh, yes, 2017. 13-3. Ugh, wait a minute… the Eagles? The 2017 season? Oh, forget it.
Let’s hope our offensive woes are resolved in a hurry, okay?
