2026 has been the Year of the Injured List for Cubs starting pitching. If you’ve spent any part of this season refreshing social media for injury updates more than checking the box score, you’re not alone. But somehow, the Cubs will enter tonight’s game against the Orioles with a 51-40 record. While that puts them seven games back of the Brewers in the division, it does give them a pretty good shot of making the playoffs through the Wild Card. You can see FanGraph’s odds of the Cubs making the playoffs below:
Trust me, you’d much rather look at that chart than their odds of winning the division.
There was a lot to be hopeful for in Matthew Boyd’s outing on Tuesday. Boyd threw six scoreless innings giving up three hits and walking two while striking out seven Orioles. If he can continue to throw like that and avoid the injured list, it could be huge for the Cubs as they try to make the Postseason for the second year in a row.
The problem is that it isn’t too hard to squint and see a scenario where it all falls apart a little. Below are all of the starting pitchers who have thrown at least 5innings for the Cubs this season, including pitchers currently on the injured list who may return this season:
Edward Cabrera and Jameson Taillon are both on the injured list and throwing. They seem like they could return sometime after the All Star Break. Cabrera has been hit or miss for the Cubs this season. When he’s been on and good, he’s been excellent. When he’s been dealing with blisters, other injuries, or missing the plate he’s been pretty shaky. He’s pretty obviously a step up from Jordan Wicks and David Peterson, however.
Taillon’s return comes with a few more question marks. The 34-year-old has struggled a lot with the long ball so far this season. His HR/9 of 2.66 leads all of baseball among starters with at least 50 innings pitched. The next closest pitcher is Jeffrey Springs of the Athletics who has a 2.31 HR/9 and plays in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball in Sacramento.
The problem for Taillon, and really all of the Cubs pitchers who are experiencing elevated home run rates, might be that home runs are really up across the board. Below are two graphics, the first showing the three-year park factors across the league and the second showing 2026 park factors:
To be clear, part of the reason we use multi-year park factors is to smooth out some of the noise from year to year. We also already know from reporting from The Athletic’s Eno Sarris that the ball is flying much more this season:
That could be a problem across the board for the Cubs pitchers who generally pitch more to contact due to the elite defense playing behind them. However, if the baseball is designed such that it flies further, home run balls aren’t exactly defensible. That would mean the elevated home run rates some Cubs pitchers are seeing could just get worse as the season gets hotter.
The bottom line is that the Cubs starters are walking a fine line between being a competitive playoff team and not. The pitchers who could return from the injured list are some of the pitchers who might be most impacted by the changing baseball and home run environment. With few in-house options for additional starters, here’s hoping Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins have more trades in mind than the small move they already made for David Peterson.
