It’s Tuesday night here at BCB After Dark: the grooviest gathering of night owls, early risers, new parents and Cubs fans abroad. Come on in and sit with us. We’ll waive the cover charge. The hostess will seat you now. There’s a two-drink minimum, but it’s bring your own beverage.
BCB After Dark is the place for you to talk baseball, music, movies, or anything else you need to get off your chest, as long as it is within the rules of the site. The late-nighters are encouraged to get the party started,
but everyone else is invited to join in as you wake up the next morning and into the afternoon.
Last night, I asked you what was worrying you most about the Cubs. Certainly we got more to be worried about today. Obviously the bad news about Cade Horton today plays into this, but 39 percent of you said it was injuries to starting pitching that worried you the most. Thirty-one percent of you said that the hitters struggles bothered you the most.
On Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, I don’t normally do any movie stuff. But I always have time for jazz, so let’s get to that now. You’re free to skip ahead.
International Jazz Day is coming up on April 30, and here we have Herbie Hancock performing his song “Footprints” for International Jazz Day in 2023. International Jazz Day was Hancock’s idea when he was a Goodwill Ambassador for the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The United Nations agreed to celebrate the day in 2011 and every year since.
Hancock is on piano, Ambrose Akinmusire plays trumpet, Walter Smith III in on tenor sax, Ben Williams plays bass and Mark Merella is the percussionist.
So you all know by now that Cade Horton is out for the year with elbow surgery. We don’t know whether or not it will be full Tommy John or a brace until they actually perform the operation. Horton previously had a full Tommy John operation in college at Oklahoma.
So there’s no good way to spin that except the say that there’s a solid chance that Horton will come back and be as good as ever some time in 2027. There’s always the risk that he isn’t, but the odds are in our favor.
So the Cubs need another starting pitcher. It doesn’t sound like the Matthew Boyd injury is serious, but as always, injuries to pitchers can sound minor until they aren’t. It’s another thing to worry about.
The Cubs planned for injuries to starting pitching this year with Colin Rea in the bullpen and Javier Assad down in Iowa. Neither one is as good as Boyd or Horton, but they are better-than-replacement-level pitchers who can get the Cubs into the sixth inning (or so) most times out.
The problem, however, is that the Cubs are less than two weeks into the season and they’ve already blown through their starting pitching reinforcements. Their top pitching prospect, Jaxon Wiggins, hasn’t established himself as major-league ready yet. Justin Steele should be back in six-to-eight weeks after missing almost all of last season with his elbow surgery, but “should” doesn’t mean “will.” There’s also no guarantee that Steele will return to what he was, although again, the odds are good that he will return to his former level, at least eventually.
There is one option that has been mentioned. Right-hander Lucas Giolito was a free agent this past winter who ended up not signing with anyone. Giolito had elbow surgery himself and missed all of 2024 in his first year of a two-year deal with Boston. He bounced back last year, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA over 26 starts. That performance turned a mutual option into a player option for one-year and $19 million for 2026. Giolito declined that option. The Cubs could certainly use that kind of performance this year.
Perhaps Giolito shouldn’t have declined the option because no one offered him a deal this winter that he thought was worth accepting. Giolito is still on the market. It seems odd that all 30 teams wouldn’t jump at a pitcher who put up such an impressive line the year before, but here’s where the advance metrics come in. Giolito succeeded last year despite not missing many bats. His swing-and-miss rates were at a career-low for him last year and his strikeout rate was down to 19.7 percent, which is way down from the 25.7 percent he had in 2023. The exit velocity on balls in play was up and the hard-hit rate was a below-average 40.9 percent. All of this says that while Giolito’s actual ERA was a good 3.41, his expected ERA, based on those metrics, was a poor 5.01.
Probably because of those concerns, no one offered Giolito a deal that he felt was worth accepting. After all, he had just turned down a $19 million player option. That was almost certainly a mistake, but one he’d like to correct.
It should be noted, however, that this was Giolito’s first season back from elbow surgery. It was a brace procedure and not full Tommy John, but pitchers do sometimes struggle in their first year back from surgery and are back to being as good as ever two years out. Giolito is also only 31 years old, so it’s not like he should be into his age-related decline quite yet.
There is one other problem. Giolito hasn’t gone through Spring Training. The Cubs can’t just sign him and plunk him into the rotation tomorrow. But I would assume that he’s staying in pitching shape as he markets himself to teams and that he wouldn’t need a full six weeks to be major league ready. I would think he would probably be ready after 2 or 3 minor league starts.
Maybe Giolito isn’t the solid mid-rotation starter that he was back in his glory days with the White Sox, but there’s a good chance that he’s still a good back-of-the-rotation pitcher. You might argue that he’s not much better than what Assad or Rea would give in the absence of Horton, but there are no guarantees that Horton is the last starting pitcher that goes down and they’ve already blown through their reserves until Justin Steele comes back. If the Cubs lose another starting pitcher, they’re looking at the possibility of Vince Velazquez being in the rotation. Velazquez hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2023 and Giolito is likely to be a lot better than Velazquez.
I have no idea what kind of deal Giolito would accept. Obviously he is trying to make up for turning down the $19 million from the Red Sox. I don’t think he gets that unless its a two-year deal. But the Cubs payroll isn’t really your concern. They’re going to be over the first luxury tax limit and under the limit where they start getting draft pick penalties. Signing Giolito won’t affect that either way.
The Cubs aren’t the only team suffering pitching injuries in the young season, however. The Braves and the Blue Jays are two other teams who are expected to contend and are in bad shape with injuries to starting pitching. So there is likely to be at least some sort of bidding war for Giolito, even if it (probably) won’t get too crazy.
So should the Cubs sign Giolito? Does he still have something left to contribute? Or are you willing to risk Boyd staying healthy, Steele coming back and Rea and Assad contributing, at least until we get closer to the trade deadline and the Cubs could conceivably pick someone up in the trade market.
Thank you for stopping by tonight. We were glad to see you. Please get home safely. Let us know if you need us to call a ride. Don’t forget any personal belongings. Tip your waistaff. And join us again tomorrow evening for more BCB After Dark.
