I analyzed FBS regular-season data from 2015 to date to better understand performances following bye weeks. One thing to note as we drill down into Oregon specifics is that there isn’t a meaningful sample size for these numbers to be statistically significant. File all this under the Fun Stats category.
Across all teams, based on yards per play, teams coming off a bye slightly outperform non-bye opponents and games where both teams came off a bye. Surprisingly, Oregon moves in the opposite direction,
going from 6.76 yards per play in weeks not following a bye to 5.64 when playing in games where they are the only team off a bye.
In nearly 3.5 years under Dan Lanning, last year’s matchup against UCLA was Oregon’s only game in which they came off a bye and their opponent didn’t. Queue reminder about small sample sizes. In that contest Oregon managed a less-than-typical 5.53 yards per play. In the other three games coming off a bye week, Oregon’s yards per play stat has held up when compared to games in which Oregon was not coming off a bye.
Similar to yards per play, teams coming off a bye perform slightly better on the defensive side of yards per play when compared against non-bye opponents and games where both teams came off a bye.
In a limited sample, Oregon’s defense, both under Dan Lanning and all other Oregon head coaches since 2015, has performed notably better in terms of yards per play allowed coming off a bye than when against opponents not following a bye (4.57 yards per play allowed vs. ~5.5).
It’s worth noting that two of the three games Dan Lanning coached Oregon against teams also coming off a bye were against top-10 teams (2022 UCLA and 2023 Washington). If Oregon has an excuse for having allowed higher yards per play in these games, it’s that they faced future NFL players Michael Penix, Rome Odunze, and Jalen McMillan, along with UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Jake Bobo.
Dan Lanning is 2-1 in those games and has another multi-bye week, top-10 matchup against Indiana looming this weekend. Coming off an impressive defensive performance against Penn State (4.6 yards per play allowed), I’m looking for Oregon to have improved in this category come Saturday evening.
Indiana will enter Autzen improved from last year, sporting the nation’s 5th-best offense in terms of yards per play and 12th-best defense in yards per play allowed. Oregon, meanwhile, is top-12 in both yards per play and yards per play allowed. Oregon, under Lanning, has been competitive in all but two games, but hasn’t had to overcome the talent disparity Indiana has faced. Lanning is 4-3 in top-10 matchups and 5-4 when facing top-10 opponents regardless of Oregon’s rank at the time.
Indiana, under Curt Cignetti, has established itself as a well-coached team that has beaten up on lesser and similarly talented competition, but has yet to break through against ranked teams with significant talent advantages. Cignetti is 0-2 in top-10 matchups and 1-2 when facing top-10 opponents, with the win coming against Illinois this year. Outside of Illinois, Cignetti’s best win might be against an 8-5 2024 Michigan team.
Oregon has a 295.88 talent advantage according to 247sports in this contest. I trained a simple linear regression model based on talent disparity and Cignetti’s previous results to predict yards per play. The model returned a moderate variance value of .389. Given Oregon’s talent advantage, the model predicted 4.59 yards per play. If that prediction holds up and Indiana fails to limit Oregon’s offense below 5.5 yards per play, I expect Oregon to win convincingly.
