The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) are back at Mile High to face the Denver Broncos (0-1) after beating them in Week 15 of the 2025 season.
The Jags are 2.5-point underdogs, per FanDuel Sportsbook, but I suspect they’ll finally get some respect by the end of the weekend.
Let’s get to some predictions.
Prediction #1
In Week 1 this season, the Broncos allowed 31 points, and the Jaguars scored 34.
In Week 15 last season, the Jaguars scored 34 points against the Broncos in Denver.
Since the Jags began their nine-game regular
season win streak in Week 11 last season, they lead the NFL in wins (9), points per game (33.7), points scored (303), and total touchdowns (36).
I don’t care that the Week 1 figures are from a small sample. I don’t care that Jacksonville hasn’t faced an overly difficult schedule during their current win streak. Have you watched the games?! The Jaguars are GOOD!
It’s safe to assume that the Jaguars will put up points on Sunday. The question is: how so? Trevor Lawrence and the passing game have been absolutely humming, but there’s suddenly some potential for a breakout game for Bhayshul Tuten and the rushing attack against the Broncos.
Kenneth Walker III embarrassed Denver’s defense on national television a few nights ago. In his Kansas City Chiefs debut, he posted 173 rushing yards, the most by a Chief since Jamaal Charles in 2012 (per Ben Solak).
Critically, much of the damage came from under center runs. Walker scooted for 148 yards on such runs because a) he is a difference-making ball-carrier, b) the talents of interior linemen like Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith are maximized on vertical runs, and c) the team got blocking buy-in from skill players like Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Having Andy Reid as the play caller helps, too.
Offenses across the league are trying to go under center more often. “In the shotgun, running backs line up to the side of the quarterback, which both limits the types of run concepts offenses can run and makes the side to which they’ll ultimately run more predictable,” Bill Barnwell wrote. The quarterback benefits as well. “Pass dropbacks from under center since 2021 have generated 0.11 EPA per play, while pass snaps from shotgun or pistol have generated 0.04 EPA per play. That’s roughly the difference between average plays run by the Bills and Giants in 2025.”
So, after Denver was decimated by under center runs in the season opener, Sunday looks like a prime opportunity for Jacksonville’s offense.
Tight ends Nate Boerkircher and Quintin Morris were absolute dogs in the run game last week. Rookie guard Emmanuel Pregnon is the early frontrunner for breakout player of 2026. Blindside protector Anton Harrison is playing inspiring football. And Tuten looks really good!
Lawrence and Jacksonville’s deep pass-catching unit will keep picking on weak links in opposing secondaries, as they did last week against Cleveland and last season in Denver, but Week 2 feels like Tuten’s time to shine. Walker was the only player with more broken tackles than him in Week 1, per PFF. Now he gets to face off against the same defense.
Tuten has done well to avoid negative plays, though it sure would be nice to see more explosive plays. Maybe we’ll finally see them come in bunches on Sunday. I expect Tuten to have a good game.
But my PREDICTION is that Chris Rodriguez Jr. will have a GREAT game.
This is the type of game he was brought in for. A road matchup against a playoff contender where every inch matters. Lawrence should post strong numbers, and Tuten ought to have a few chunk gains on the perimeter, but the Jaguars will look to Rodriguez to convert in high-leverage situations and keep the offense on the field.
Last week, Tuten saw more snaps (28 to 23) and carries (15 to 6) than Rodriguez. However, the latter was the only Jaguar with multiple carries in short-yardage situations, and he was the only Jaguar with a carry in the red zone.
Jacksonville is expected to run all over Denver this week, but I think it will be more of a 1-2 punch than a full-blown breakout from Tuten.
The prediction: Chris Rodriguez scores 2 touchdowns
Rodriguez has +350 odds to score a touchdown and +3500 odds to score two touchdowns on FanDuel.
I also like Lawrence to score on the ground (+350). As he said after the Week 1 win, “scrambles lead the league in touchdowns every year,” and a designated QB run near the goal line shouldn’t surprise anyone either. Since he entered the league in 2021, the only quarterbacks with more rushing touchdowns than Lawrence are Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. He will use his legs in the red zone on Sunday.
Prediction #2
Even if you didn’t catch Kenneth Walker III on Monday Night Football, you must’ve heard about Denver’s disaster-class on the other side of the ball.
This is some of the craziest slander I’ve ever seen.
After egomaniac Sean Payton handed playcalling duties to Davis Webb to prevent him from departing to become a head coach, the Broncos wilted against Steve Spagnuolo’s Chiefs.
Bo Nix finished with 131 passing yards and a career-high 4 sacks (avoiding sacks is supposed to be what he’s good at). The vaunted Broncos offensive line was embarrassing. The operation under Webb was slow. The running backs were awful in pass protection. Jaylen Waddle dropped what should’ve been a massive catch-and-run play.
Jaguars defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile only blitzed Nix on 14.3% of dropbacks in their last meeting, the second-lowest rate for Jacksonville in all of 2025, but he may want to turn up the dial after watching Week 1. The Broncos offense is exposed; the Jaguars defense has a window to deliver a knockout punch.
The prediction: Sean Payton takes over playcalling at halftime
The offseason addition of Waddle looked great on paper, even if it cost Denver a first-round pick. I was a big fan of the move. In theory, his field-stretching presence would be the final piece for an offense with big-bodied wideouts, a complementary backfield, and five solid starters up front. And with Payton still overseeing game plans and pass protection, the Broncos were poised to lean more on their offense in 2026. Super Bowl expectations remained in place.
But we live in a different world than we did a week ago. I don’t think Payton can last more than six quarters watching his offense struggle to score points. He’ll give Webb an ultimatum right before kickoff: “If you don’t score a point for every minute that goes off the clock, I’m taking back the call sheet!” Once Webb inevitably fails to meet expectations, Payton will snatch the sheet from his hands and call a flea-flicker the first chance he gets, just to show off.
Let us know your predictions for JAX@DEN in the comments below!
Last week’s predictions (and results):
- Deshaun Watson commits multiple turnovers (1 interception, 1 turnover on downs)
- Trevor Lawrence leads all Week 1 passers in yards/attempt (3rd behind Lamar and Allen)
- Jaguars lead by 10+ by halftime (led by 24)
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