With nine games left in the 2025 regular season, the Minnesota Lynx are drying the concrete on their hold over the No. 1 seed.
They boast a 5.5-game lead over the second-place Atlanta Dream, enough to suggest that Minnesota will surely enjoy homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs. At 28-7, they have a real chance to break the WNBA single-season wins record, set by the Las Vegas Aces in their 34-win 2023 season. The Lynx are benefitting from an extended season, but history is history nonetheless.
A Stormy first-round forecast?
Given the tight race for the final few playoff seeds, it’s difficult to predict a first-round matchup this early. The Indiana Fever, Golden State Valkyries, Seattle Storm, Los Angeles Sparks and Washington Mystics are all within three games of each other, fighting for seeds No. 6 through No. 8. Regardless of which team is “lucky” enough to capture that final postseason stall, the Lynx will be lopsided favorites in the first round.
Minnesota will still be rooting for the weakest link to sneak into the playoffs. Despite their unexpected free fall from grace, Seattle is not the team that they want suiting up in Target Center in September. The Storm had fluctuated between fourth and fifth place for a healthy chunk of the season, but are now in panic mode after dropping seven of their last nine games. They’re struggling to close, with all but one of the losses coming within two possessions or fewer. They currently occupy the No. 8 seed. Although the Lynx will undoubtedly remain the apex predator in the series, the Storm have already bested Minnesota early in the season. The Lynx are 2-1 in the season series, but hold a negative point differential. The Lynx won by four in both of their victories. In the loss, Seattle won by 10.
The Storm are one of very few teams in the league that can match Minnesota’s experience. Nneka Ogwumike, Skylar Diggins, Brittney Sykes and Gabby Williams are all veterans and stars in their own right. The playoffs will be nothing new to them. Their experience manifests in the margins; they turn the ball over at the lowest rate in the league while forcing the most opponent turnovers. That composure translates easily in the playoffs, especially on the road. They transparently struggle with 3-point shooting and rebounding, but make no mistake, the Lynx do not want to see Storm clouds in the first round.
Is MV-Phee in trouble?
Napheesa Collier has yet to return from a three-week long injury that she suffered on August 2nd against the Las Vegas Aces. She was upgraded to questionable before Thursday night’s game against the Dream, but didn’t end up testing her ankle. While her numerous absences aren’t hurting her team’s standings, it is hurting one thing: her MVP case.
Collier was head-and-shoulders above the pack during the first half of the season, scoring 24 points per game at an extraterrestrial 50/40/90 clip. Her 3-point shooting had dipped, but she’s still maintaining historical efficiency given her volume. However, missed games have given headway for three-time MVP A’ja Wilson to make her own argument. Both players are now averaging 23 points per game, but Wilson has played six more games. They both average roughly 3.5 assists. Their defensive numbers are also identical. Collier has the efficiency advantage, but Wilson’s 10 rebounds per game elevate her to that flashy double-double average, something that Collier’s 7.5 rebounds per game fall short of.
Collier should still hold the advantage over the perennial award winner. She’s leading her team to a historic record, and her stats are marginally superior. Wilson also will likely suffer from voter fatigue, as history shows that A’ja always needs one “down” year before winning her next MVP award.
If MV-Phee is able to fend off the M’VP (we as WNBA fans desperately need to come up with more creative nicknames for generational talents) she will be the first Lynx player to win the award since the legendary Maya Moore in 2014. If she maintains her dominance while capturing the regular-season wins record, there will be a very real argument that Collier has had the greatest season in the franchises history. The legacies of Moore and Sylvia Fowles are monstrous, but 2025 Napheesa Collier has been indomitable.
