With half the basketball season complete and a quarter of the conference schedule in the books, it’s time to take a serious look at the championship race. As long-time readers know, I’ve consistently criticized preseason polls for their inherent bias and reliance on unsubstantiated data. This week on Stats Corner, we’re doing something different: ranking teams by their calculated probability of winning the conference regular season title.
This is not a power ranking. This isn’t about who’s “better”
in the abstract, this is about who is actually positioned to win the championship based on current records, remaining schedule, and head-to-head matchups.
Note: Teams #6 through #12 all have less than 0.1% chance, which is why no percentage is displayed for those positions. Probabilities and records are current as of Tuesday.
#1 Utah State Aggies — 76% Chance
With a cross-country loss at South Florida as the only blemish on their résumé, the Aggies are in the driver’s seat for the conference title. While they’ve been dismantling conference opponents with ease, they have yet to play a team currently in the top five of this ranking. That changes now. If the Aggies can navigate their next three games—Nevada (88%), @Grand Canyon (75%), and UNLV (94%)—their championship probability will climb above 85%, essentially putting the race out of reach for the competition.
#2 New Mexico Lobos — 13% Chance
After watching Utah State’s dismantling of Boise State, New Mexico’s lone conference loss is looking increasingly costly. Like the Aggies, the Lobos have overwhelmed the lower-tier teams in the conference, but distinguishing themselves at the top is where championship hopes are made or broken. Two games loom massive on the schedule: hosting Utah State on February 4th (41%) and the final game in Logan on March 1st (19%). But before those marquee matchups, the Lobos must take care of business Saturday against San Diego State (45%)—a win that could dramatically reshape the title picture.
#3 San Diego State Aztecs — 7% Chance
Here’s the anomaly of the ranking: the Aztecs sit undefeated in conference play, yet hold only a 7% chance to win the title. The answer lies in the brutal schedule ahead. SDSU just earned a quality road win over Nevada, but the gauntlet is coming. The upcoming stretch reads like a murderer’s row: @Wyoming (54%), vs. New Mexico (55%), @Grand Canyon (46%), @UNLV (60%), vs. Colorado State (66%), then @Utah State (15%). The Aztecs don’t need to win all six—they need to go 4-2 to remain a legitimate threat. Anything less, and their undefeated conference start will be wasted
The swing game: Saturday vs. New Mexico. If the Aztecs win, flip the probability and ranking between #2 and #3.
#4 Nevada Wolf Pack — 3% Chance
Nevada’s lone loss came at home to San Diego State, which explains why they sit behind the Aztecs despite similar résumés. The Wolf Pack’s 12 wins include quality victories over Washington State and Boise State, strengthening their tournament case even if the conference title remains a long shot. A critical three-game stretch will define their season: @New Mexico (25%), vs. Grand Canyon (67%), then vs. UNLV (77%). Going 2-1 in this stretch keeps Nevada in the conversation. Anything less, and they’re fighting for positioning in the 3-5 range.
#5 Grand Canyon Lopes — 1% Chance
The conference newcomers have already turned heads with wins over Northern Illinois and Utah, plus single-digit losses to Iowa and Oklahoma State. Impressive, but in the conference title race, it’s about when you lose, not how close the games were. Two conference losses already—one to Colorado State, one to New Mexico, have put the Lopes behind the eight-ball. However, an opportunity presents itself: back-to-back home games against Utah State (26%) and San Diego State (51%). Sweep those two, and Grand Canyon immediately vaults into the #2 conversation. Split or get swept, and title hopes evaporate.
#6 Colorado State Rams
Technically alive at 0.1%, but mathematically all but eliminated. The Rams’ story is one of high-quality individual results that haven’t translated to conference success. They beat South Florida (the only team to hand Utah State a loss), took down Wichita State and Colorado, and lost to Virginia Tech by just two points. The problem? Three conference losses, all to teams ranked above them. The Nevada and New Mexico defeats came at home; the Utah State loss was by 42. With Utah State (30%) and San Diego State (31%) on deck next week, the Rams could pull off upsets, but even consecutive victories wouldn’t meaningfully improve their title probability.
#7 UNLV Rebels
Unfortunately for UNLV, out-of-conference victories over Memphis and Stanford carry significantly less weight than in years past. The Rebels have conference wins against Air Force and Fresno State, but road losses to Wyoming and Colorado State have been crippling. The gauntlet starts next week: @Utah State (7%), vs. San Diego State (38%), vs. New Mexico (33%), @Nevada (22%). Even a .500 record in this stretch would require winning games where they’re substantial underdogs. The Rebels are playing for seeding, not the title.
#8 Wyoming Cowboys
The Cowboys sit just a single game ahead of UNLV in the standings, but behind them in title probability due to simple arithmetic: the Rebels have two losses, Wyoming has three, all to teams ahead in this ranking: Grand Canyon, New Mexico, and Nevada. What makes their position difficult is the schedule that lies ahead. Wyoming still has to play Utah State and Colorado State twice each. Even if the Cowboys become the Mountain West’s hottest team down the stretch, the math may simply not work in their favor.
#9 Fresno State Bulldogs
At NET ranking #146, this represents a vast improvement over recent seasons for the Bulldogs. They’ve endured a brutal start to conference play UNLV, Utah State, Nevada, and San Diego State, but the schedule lightens, and the team is trending upward. Still, 1-4 in conference play with three of those losses coming to top-five teams leaves Fresno State with virtually no path to the title. They can play spoiler, though, with upcoming games against Colorado State (28%) and Wyoming (49%).
#10 Boise State Broncos
Early-season victories over Wichita State, Butler, and Saint Mary’s painted Boise State as a Mountain West contender. Then came the collapse: losses to Nevada, San Diego State, Grand Canyon, and whatever Utah State did to them (93-68). That wasn’t a loss; it was a statement.
The Broncos have four winnable games ahead: Colorado State (57%), @Wyoming (47%), Air Force (97%), and @San Jose State (72%). Boise State could certainly turn their season around—but the conference title is no longer the goal. At this point, it’s about salvaging pride, avoiding the bottom tier, and building toward next year.
#11 San Jose State Spartans
When you have one conference win in the middle of a six-game losing streak and five of those losses were by double digits, you find yourself near the bottom of the rankings.
The Spartans still have to play Air Force again (74%), and that’s the only remaining game where they’re favored. San Jose State is playing for respect and momentum, not a championship.
#12 Air Force Falcons
Zero conference wins. Ten consecutive losses. Eight of those defeats by double digits. When you’ve lost ten straight and haven’t looked competitive in most of them, the bottom of the standings is exactly where you belong. The Falcons have only a 3% chance to beat Boise State and a 26% chance to knock off San Jose State. At this rate, the question shifts from “Can they win the conference?” to something far more uncomfortable: Will Air Force win a single conference game this season?
