It’s week 14 of the NFL season and the 3-9 Washington Commanders will be facing a 4-8 Minnesota Vikings team on the road at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Sunday at 1:00 pm ET. The Vikings had a reasonable start to the season, winning 3 of their first 5 games, but have gone on to lose 6 of their last 7 games. The Vikings seemed to find lightning in a bottle last year, with a 5th-ranked defense in terms of points allowed and a rehabilitated QB in Sam Darnold, but have struggled to find any
sort of success with 2nd-year QB J.J. McCarthy at the helm this year.
On offense, the Vikings are coached by HC Kevin O’Connell (former QB coach and OC of the Redskins under Jay Gruden), the primary playcaller and architect of the offense, as well as OC Wes Phillips, former TEs coach of the LA Rams and son of legendary DC Wade Phillips. The Vikings under O’Connell run a West Coast Offense with a primarily zone run scheme, though with some power/gap concepts mixed in. However, the Vikings offense has looked terrible this season, ranked 29th in total yards and 28th in total points. Although the Vikings were briefly helmed by QB Carson Wentz due to a McCarthy injury, they have not looked particularly effective on offense this year regardless of their QB starter. This is despite having perennial All Pro WR Justin Jefferson on the roster, truly one of the best at his position.
On defense, the Vikings are coached by DC Brian Flores, former HC of the Dolphins and longtime defensive coach of the Patriots under Bill Belichick. On paper, the Vikings run a 3-4 defense, but in reality, Flores is known for varying his defensive front and coverage schemes constantly to keep QBs guessing. Make no mistake, the Vikings defense under Flores has consistently been a top-10 unit. Even though this is a down year for the Vikings, they are the 5th-ranked defense in terms of passing yards allowed, the 21st-ranked unit in terms of rushing yards allowed, and the 16th-ranked unit in terms of total points allowed. That may not sound impressive, but it is driven heavily by the inability of the offense to move the ball and maintain time of possession. The Vikings defense is still a unit that should inspire respect by opposing teams.
I asked Christopher Gates of Daily Norseman five questions to better understand the state of the Vikings and what to look for in this game.
1) What is your scouting report on JJ McCarthy, his strengths and weaknesses, and will he be the starting QB of the Vikings in week 1 of next year?
McCarthy’s strengths are that he’s got very good arm strength and can fit the ball into some pretty tight windows given the opportunity. Unfortunately, at this point that arm strength also tends to make him throw every pass at approximately eight hundred miles an hour, which leads to a lot of dropped passes (the Vikings currently have the highest drop rate in the NFL, which isn’t all on McCarthy, but he has contributed to that). He also, quite simply, just hasn’t gotten enough reps at this point. Kevin O’Connell just hasn’t done a whole lot to simplify things for him to this point, and so he’s not running the offense the way the Vikings had probably hoped he would be at this point in the season. I can’t say for sure whether or not he’s going to be the starter going into Week 1 next season. I think it’s definitely too early to be completely “out” on him at this point, as there have been plenty of flashes of talent there, but I do think the Vikings, at the very least, need to bring in someone to at least compete with him for the starting spot in 2026.
2) The Vikings defense seems to have regressed this year compared to last, going from 5th to 17th in points allowed and 1st to 24th in turnovers. What has been the cause of that regression?
A lot of it has to do with the fact that the offense just doesn’t sustain drives the way they have over the past couple of seasons. The Vikings have scored a total of six points over the past two games and have put up zero points in their last six quarters of play. The defense has actually played relatively well over their past couple of games. . .the Packers got one of their two touchdowns in that game following a muffed punt that set up a first-and-goal situation and Seattle’s lone touchdown this past week came on the pick-six that pretty much everyone has seen by now. But, if the offense can’t move the ball and can’t stay on the field, the defense can only do so much before they get gassed and the proverbial dam bursts. I don’t really have a good explanation for the turnover regression. I suppose that some regression was to be expected, but not the cliff drop that we’ve seen so far. Part of it might have to do with the quality of the quarterbacks they’ve faced this season, but for whatever reason the turnovers just haven’t been there this season for this Minnesota defense.
3) What would you say have been the biggest reasons for the Vikings disappointing season and what percent of the blame would you give to each reason?
It’s just been a full-on systemic failure at every level. It starts with Kevin O’Connell’s completely misjudging the ability of McCarthy to operate the offense he wants to run at the level he wants to run it, compounded by the number of injuries this team has had to deal with, particularly on the offensive line. The projected starting offensive line (Christian Darrisaw, Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Brian O’Neill) didn’t play a snap together until Week 12, and that only lasted two quarters before Jackson and Darrisaw went out again. There are receivers dropping passes, dumb penalties at key times, failures on special teams at big moments, questionable play calling. If you can name it, it’s probably been an issue for the Vikings at some point this season. When you can make the case for your kicker being the best player on your team. . .or, at the very least, your most consistent player. . .it’s probably been a pretty bad year for your squad.
4) Who is one Vikings player on offense and one player on defense that Washington fans probably don’t know much about, but should?
On offense, I’ll go with receiver Jalen Nailor. A lot of the attention for the Vikings’ wide receiver corps goes to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and for good reason. But “Speedy” is a guy who is likely going to find himself playing a much larger role for another team next season, as he’s in the final year of his rookie season and likely isn’t going to be able to stay with the Vikings. Nailor has always been a guy who can be productive as long as he stays healthy, even going back to his college days at Michigan State. He’s a pretty solid WR3, and if McCarthy can find even a little bit of a rhythm on offense, Nailor is a guy who could benefit.
On defense, I’ll point you to Jalen Redmond. Redmond is a guy who went undrafted and then found himself in the UFL for a stretch before the Vikings brought him in last season. He’s quickly established himself as the Vikings’ best defensive lineman, and he’s been the team’s most consistent defensive player this season. He hasn’t gotten his attention because of some of the bigger names on the Vikings’ defense, but he’s definitely a player that the Commanders are going to have to account for. He’s spent a lot of time in opposing backfields this season and has the look of a player that this defense should be able to build around for the long-term.
5) How should Washington go about gameplanning this matchup on both sides of the ball?
The key for Washington is to stop the run offensively. The Vikings have had some games this season where they’ve gotten some really good production out of the run game, whether it’s been Aaron Jones or Jordan Mason, and if they can do that on Sunday it’s going to give McCarthy an opportunity to get comfortable and open up the play-action game, which could definitely work to his advantage. If you can get the Vikings’ offense behind schedule, it’s going to put more pressure on McCarthy, and that’s when he’s had his biggest issues this season. On defense, it’s pretty much the same thing. . .if the Commanders can get the ground game going, they can take some of the blitz packages that Brian Flores likes to bring off the table and help either Marcus Mariota or Jayden Daniels out significantly. The Vikings haven’t been great against the run this season, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see Washington handing the ball off early and often in an effort to establish it and wear down this Vikings defense.
A companion article to this with my answers to Christopher’s questions will be linked as soon as it is available.
Thanks again to Christopher Gates for taking time out of his day to answer our questions about the Vikings.
