Payton Tolle. Ranger Suarez. Sonny Gray.
The Boston Red Sox don’t have to think very long about what their starting rotation should look like for their inevitable wild card matchup with the New York Yankees.
I’ll go and find the numbers to back up this opinion, but before we dive into those let’s just all acknowledge the oldest factor in the book when it comes to these kinds of decisions: the eye test.
Tolle has been a man possessed since the start of August, with seven of his eight outings across that
stretch being quality starts and just three of those starts ending before he completed six innings — 48.0 innings pitched, 13 earned runs, 63 strikeouts, 11 walks issued, 2.44 ERA, 2.37 FIP, and one Immaculate Inning.
Suarez shut me right the hell up since your boy had the bright idea of publicly pointing out that he tends to struggle in the month of September. He put up a 4.00 ERA across 168.2 innings pitched in that month throughout the first eight seasons of his career. He’s got a 0.64 across his two starts this month, which isn’t exactly the same sample size but he has been dealing when it matters most.
Gray has also been really good, but he’s clearly starting to strain after carrying the rotation on his back for the majority of the season. The one start he made after receiving extra days rest was superb (7.0 IP, 0R, W). His las start, on normal rest, was rather pedestrian, like the few before he got the breather (6.0, 3R, L).
If you want to talk about how the trio best flows together, it is also important to note where the game is being played and who they’ll be playing against. The Yankees just aren’t as good when they have to deploy their righty-heavy lineup, as it forces guys like Amed Rosario and Heliot Ramos into games over Luis Garcia and Ryan McMahon, and helps limit the overall effectiveness of Ben Rice, Spencer Jones, and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Yankee Stadium has been home to 18 home runs given up by left-handed starting pitchers and 41 home runs given up by right-handed starting pitchers in 2026. If that’s not enough to influence your decision, what is?
Is it the fact that Tolle has the smallest book out on him and has gotten better in August and September? Is it the fact that Suarez has the best postseason pedigree of the three? Is it the fact that Gray notoriously hasn’t pitched well in The Bronx?
I don’t know, man. Tolle in Game 1 of the ALDS sounds pretty damn good to me…
