Prior to last year, the Detroit Lions had at least one undrafted rookie make the team’s initial 53-man roster for 15 consecutive seasons. This year’s UDFA class includes nine players, and could eventually include more because Detroit still has a few remaining roster spots.
Predicting which UDFAs could make the roster is tough. All of these players went undrafted for a reason. However, Arif Hasan produced a method that has fairly accurately projected the probability that a player makes the initial
roster. His model is based on two data sets: the amount of guaranteed money a UDFA gets in their contract, and where that player ranks in his Consensus Big Board.
From there, Hasan weighted each data set appropriately based on historic predictive rates and came up with overall probabilities for every team’s UDFAs. It’s a fascinating study and has a lot of interesting data on UDFA probabilities. I highly recommend checking it out.
Note: One thing to consider is that the contract terms listed below may only be preliminary as details slowly roll in to public-facing sites like Over The Cap and Sportrac. There may be (and likely is) more guaranteed money on the books than we currently know. Because the Lions were the only team to not hold rookie minicamp, their contract details may take longer to be made public than other teams.
So here’s a look at each Lions’ UDFA probability of making the roster, ranked from highest to lowest:
DT Aidan Keanaaina, Cal
- Guaranteed money: $267,500
- Consensus Big Board ranking: 545
- Probability of making 53-man roster: 15.4%
Keanaaina was one of just two Lions UDFAs to earn guaranteed money on his contract, and his place atop these rankings feels appropriate. Given Detroit’s lack of an investment in a nose tackle this offseason, the 320-pound defender has a visible route to the 53-man roster following the losses of DJ Reader and Roy Lopez in free agency.
LB Erick Hunter, Morgan State
- Guaranteed money: $175,000
- Consensus Big Board ranking: 414
- Probability of making 53-man roster: 13.3%
Hunter also has a realistic path to the roster given Detroit’s relatively thin depth at linebacker. He’ll obviously have to adjust to a much higher level of play in the NFL, but he’s a high-end athlete with a ton of motor, which could land him a special teams role early.
EDGE Anthony Lucas, USC
- Guaranteed money: $0
- Consensus Big Board ranking: 160
- Probability of making 53-man roster: 12.4%
Lucas was the Lions’ highest-ranked UDFA on Hasan’s big board, which projected him as a fifth-round talent. His 160th ranking on the big board was the fifth-highest among all NFL UDFAs this year. Lucas was projected to have a better career at USC than he did, but Detroit is wagering on his prototypical NFL size (6-foot-5, 256 pounds).
QB Luke Altmyer, Illinois
- Guaranteed money: $0
- Consensus Big Board ranking: 242
- Probability of making 53-man roster: 9.8%
It feels relatively unlikely the Lions opt to carry three quarterbacks on their 53-man roster, but as of right now, Altmyer is running unopposed to the QB3 spot. Altmyer has a reputation as a smart quarterback with a little mobility to boot. As long as he doesn’t blow training camp and the preseason, he’s a very strong bet to at least stick around on the practice squad as a developmental backup.
TE Miles Kitselman, Tennessee
- Guaranteed money: $0
- Consensus Big Board ranking: 313
- Probability of making 53-man roster: 8.2%
Kitselman has an intriguing path to the roster. While the Lions are likely set with TE1-3 (Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright, Tyler Conklin), Kitselman has a very real chance to justify a TE4. His only competition—Thomas Gordon and Zach Horton—have essentially zero NFL experience. With a relatively balanced workload between blocking and receiving at Tennessee, Kitselman could grow into a player capable of filling most tight end roles.
EDGE Eric O’Neill, Rutgers
- Guaranteed money: $0
- Consensus Big Board ranking: 345
- Probability of making 53-man roster: 7.7%
O’Neill is an intriguing prospect due to his incredible 2024 season at James Madison, when he tallied 52 tackles, 13 sacks, and 18.5 tackles for loss. He was far less productive at Rutgers last season (37 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss), but given his climb from community college to D1 school, there is certainly hope for further development.
CB De’Shawn Rucker, USF
- Guaranteed money: $0
- Consensus Big Board ranking: 646
- Probability of making 53-man roster: 4.1%
We’ve reached the extreme-long-shot portion of the list. Hasan’s data shows UDFAs have a collective 9.5 percent chance of making the roster over the past five years. Everyone remaining on this list has half of that likelihood.
Rucker is fast and has some experience of versatility at both outside and nickel, but he couldn’t crack the starting lineup at Tennessee before transferring to USF.
DB Aamaris Brown, UNLV
- Guaranteed money: $0
- Consensus Big Board ranking: 724
- Probability of making 53-man roster: 3.5%
Brown has similar inside/outside versatility—and at 5-foot-9, 197 pounds, Detroit likely won’t shy from trying him at both positions. He’s got some dawg in him, but we’ll have to see how he matches up against NFL receivers.
OL Melvin Priestly, Illinois
- Guaranteed money: $0
- Consensus Big Board ranking: 821
- Probability of making 53-man roster: 2.9%
It’s unclear if Priestly will play at tackle (his college position) or guard (where many project him), but either way will be a tough climb for the former Illini. Detroit invested heavily in both spots this offseason, leaving little room for Priestly, unless he balls out in the summer.
