The Buffalo Bills (6-1) travel to Minneapolis on Monday Night Football to take on a Minnesota Vikings team that is also 6-1 and coming off its first loss of the season, 19-15 at Detroit. The Bills beat the Baltimore Ravens 36-10 last Sunday, but Baltimore lost both quarterbacks in the first half, and I’m careful about using that game as a measuring stick for this one. Minnesota is a different kind of test.
Brian Flores is the main reason. His defense leads the NFL in scoring (13.3 points per game)
and blitzes on roughly 70 percent of dropbacks. Carolina is next at 42.6 percent (the Bills themselves blitzed on 64.5 percent of dropbacks last Sunday, second only to Minnesota in Week 8, per Next Gen Stats). Josh Allen completes 65.7 percent of his passes against five or more rushers at 8.4 yards per attempt, so, on paper it’s a great matchup but the reality is that nobody is better than Flores sending 5 or more after opposing QBs. Buffalo has the league’s best offense (33.3 points per game) and the best EPA per play (0.175), and Minnesota has the best defensive mark (-0.189).
The Vikings’ offense is their problem on the other side. It ranks 30th in EPA per play (-0.099), Carson Wentz starts with Kyler Murray out with a hamstring injury, and Justin Jefferson has 335 yards heading into Week 9, a lower pace than his career-low 2025, per Pro Football Talk. I think the game comes down to whether Buffalo’s offense can stay on schedule against the blitz while the defense tries to not give Wentz and Jefferson easy completions. With all of this in mind, here are the Bills who need to keep rolling and those who must step up Monday night.
KEEP ROLLING
Christian Benford, CB: Jefferson is the assignment
Zay Flowers entered Week 8 second in the NFL in receiving yards per game (101.3) and first in yards after the catch (331). He caught none of his five targets, and four came from rookie Joe Fagnano. Jim Leonhard also changed the plan: the Bills ran man coverage on 54.8 percent of dropbacks, up from 19.5 percent, per Next Gen Stats.
Benford was a big part of that. His coverage EPA of -5.8 was sixth in the NFL in Week 8, he was eighth in catch rate allowed over expected, and his tight-window percentage (50) tied Damar Hamlin for sixth. He played 45 of 51 snaps. He has found his rhythm after a slow start — Pro Football Reference has him allowing a 106.6 passer rating through his first five games (22-of-36, three touchdowns). PFF had him 72nd of 102 corners (55.4) through Week 8. Monday needs the last two games version.
Jefferson has 28 catches for 335 yards and four touchdowns. In games Wentz has played, he gets 31.5 percent of targets and 45.2 percent of air yards, and averages 2.52 yards per route run, per Sharp Football Analysis. Against Detroit, he caught five of nine targets for 33 yards and a touchdown. With the offense 30th in EPA, stopping him goes a long way toward stopping Minnesota.
DJ Moore, WR: Flores’ blitz leaves someone alone outside
In his three full games, Moore has a 28.7 percent target share and 42.3 percent air yards share, which Next Gen Stats ranks sixth and fourth in the league. Against Baltimore he caught four of seven targets for 82 yards and a touchdown. Downfield, he caught three of four for 78 yards and a score, including a 43-air-yard completion that was Allen’s longest of the game by air yards. PFF had him on the field for 37 of Allen’s 42 pass plays (54 snaps).
As stated above, Allen has been successful against five or more rushers. That kind of defense leaves a receiver one-on-one, and Moore is the one the offense looks to first. His AC joint sprain is the variable. He’s always one bad fall over his shoulder away from leaving the game and making Josh’s life tougher. Keon Colrman has stepped up when it happened and could be another key in this matchup.
Tylan Grable, OT: Left or right, the start of something special?
Grable allowed two pressures on 42 pass-blocking snaps against Baltimore, per charting-based metrics cited by Buffalo Rumblings. Both came in true pass sets, and he had 12 of those. He played all 82 snaps, and Allen was sacked once. The numbers aren’t clean, though: PFF had him at 38.8 in Week 5 after he replaced Spencer Brown, and 55.8 for the season over 133 snaps. His negatively graded run-block play rate was 13.2 percent, against 5.3 percent for Dion Dawkins.
The veteran is questionable with a rib injury and hasn’t practiced, though Joe Brady said he could play anyway. If he sits, which I expect, Grable likely moves to left tackle with Brown at right. Minnesota’s rush is led by Andrew Van Ginkel (6.5 sacks) and Dallas Turner (six sacks, 19 quarterback hits), per ESPN. The Bills line has allowed the third-fewest pressures (74) and seventh-fewest sacks (13). Grable helps decide whether that holds.
STEP UP
James Cook, RB: The answer to the blitz might be on the ground
Cook has rushed for at least 75 yards and a touchdown in six straight games, but he got 80 yards on 21 carries (3.8 per carry) against the Ravens. On the season he has 707 yards and seven touchdowns on 138 carries. The Bills rank third in rush EPA (0.013) and second in rush success rate (49.7 percent). Excluding Week 8, Buffalo led the NFL in rush DVOA (16.1 percent).
The Vikings are beatable on the ground. They rank 17th in rush yards allowed (116.7 per game) and gave Jahmyr Gibbs 153 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries last week. Screens have produced +0.39 EPA per play on 12 attempts against Minnesota, per SIS. Cook played 44 snaps (54 percent) against Baltimore and had three targets. He needs to be both the draw and the screen outlet against the blitz. We know very well Joe Brady loves a screen opportunity.
Dee Alford, NCB: Is the veteran really the best option?
PFF has him at a 42.6 overall grade, 96th among 103 cornerbacks. His coverage grade is 41.8 (94th), with a 100.8 passer rating allowed on 13 receptions, in addition to five missed tackles, through Week 6. An ankle injury kept him out of the game against the Ravens, and he has no designation on the final injury report for Monday.
Te’Cory Couch started at nickel last week: 36 snaps (71 percent), one reception allowed for zero yards, and one of the team’s highest PFF grades (79.9). Jim Leonhard said he executed at a very high level. Jordan Hancock, who plays nickel and safety, is questionable and needs to be activated from IR. Maxwell Hairston also has snaps in three-cornerback packages, with Benford sometimes following receivers inside. If the Bills maintain the 54.8 percent man coverage from last week (Next Gen Stats), the slot is where the Vikings will test them. I think his spot is at risk, and Monday is his chance to hold onto it.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
Also Rolling
- Josh Allen, QB: PFF graded him 82.3 last week. He went 6-of-10 for 157 yards and two touchdowns on throws of 10+ air yards. For the season he is fourth in EPA per play (0.22), 10th against the blitz (0.11) and third against pressure (-0.03), per ESPN. On bootlegs he has 12.15 total EPA, second among quarterbacks, per SIS.
- Greg Rousseau, OLB: six of the team’s 30 pressures and a 27.3 percent pressure rate, fifth among players with 10+ rushes, per Next Gen Stats. Wentz has less mobility than Murray, and Rousseau is the Bills’ best answer.
- Davison Igbinosun, CB: coverage EPA of -4.7 (10th) and a -74.6 percent catch rate allowed over expected, second-best among qualified defensive backs. He played 41 of 51 snaps (80 percent), PFF graded him 73.4, and he had his first career interception. Jordan Addison is his target.
Also Stepping Up
- Jackson Hawes, TE: 29.3 from PFF, the lowest on offense. His bobbled pass became Broderick Washington’s interception and set up the Ravens’ only touchdown. With the need for the run game to get going, he should see a lot of snaps on offense.
- Michael Hoecht, OLB: 32.5 from PFF against the Ravens, second-lowest on the defense, and 47.9 through Week 6 (110th of 115 edge defenders). Buffalo’s pressure rate was the NFL’s highest in Week 8 (61.3 percent), but Rousseau had much of it, and rookie TJ Parker seem to be earning some of the snaps that used to go to Hoecht.
Final Thoughts
The SIS data points to quick throws, bootlegs, and screens as what has worked against Minnesota (+0.24, +0.37 and +0.39 EPA per play). Moore on the outside, Cook (and Ty Johnson) on the screens and Grable keeping Allen upright are how Buffalo gets there, and Benford slowing down Jefferson is how it avoids a track meet.
Which of these players matters most Monday night, and who did I miss? Let me know in the comments.
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of Leading the Charge!
