The New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers are historically pretty familiar with one another; Sunday’s game will be their 37th meeting overall. But while the Patriots have recently dominated the series, it was the Steelers who earned a victory the last time the two franchises squared off in Week 3 of the 2025 season.
A similar outcome would be bad news for this year’s New England squad, and drop it to 0-2 after a loss in the season opener against Seattle. That said, the oddsmakers feel strongly
about a Patriots victory in what will be their home opener, as do we.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Steelers pass defense: The Patriots passing offense did not have its best day in Week 1 against the Seahawks, but that was mainly due to Drake Maye’s fourth-quarter collapse. Even with him tossing three straight interceptions to end the game, the unit ranked 15th in expected points added per dropback (0.127) and eighth in success rate (52.3%) in Week 1. This shows: it generally performed well, at least when Maye stayed on track and before, by his own admission, he lost patience down the stretch. Of course, A.J. Brown’s absence will be an issue this week, as will be blocking the likes of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Nate Herbig. That said, if Maye picks his targets wisely, he should be able to find success even against what was statistically the best pass defense in football last week (-0.638 EPA/play). | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Steelers pass offense: The last time Christian Gonzalez faced off with DK Metcalf, in Week 2 of his 2024 sophomore season, he held him to four catches for 27 yards. A similar performance would be enough to seriously limit Pittsburgh’s passing game and put the pressure on other players to step up. Running back Jaylen Warren and tight end Pat Freiermuth in particular are worth keeping an eye on in that regard, especially given New England’s comparatively modest athleticism at linebacker. On the whole, however, the defense still gets the edge in this one: Gonzalez and the rest of the secondary should be able to limit Seattle’s receivers, while the interior pass rush could create problems for a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers. | Edge: Patriots
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Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Steelers run defense: The Patriots rushing offense had a rough time getting going against Seattle, and as a consequence finished Week 1 dead-last in the league in expected points added per run (-0.451). Getting TreVeyon Henderson back should help, but the team needs better blocking up front as well: Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jared Wilson and Reggie Gilliam in particular need to be able to create a more consistent push at the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, doing so against a stout Steelers front that is disciplined both inside and on the edge will be a tall task. The goal will be to take advantage of any potential lighter boxes New England will face — a byproduct of having Drake Maye at quarterback — but unless the Patriots show they can do so, we cannot pick them in this 1-on-1. | Edge: Steelers
Patriots run defense vs. Steelers rushing offense: The Patriots’ run game was bad in Week 1, but the Steelers’ was only marginally better: its own -0.252 EPA per run ranked 27th. Like New England against Seattle, it simply failed to create a consistent push up front versus Atlanta; as a consequence, Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle gained only 13 of their 61 combined rushing yards before contact. Warren was still able to do some damage on the ground, but that model of attack — as the Patriots very well know themselves — is hardly sustainable. That is especially true against a defense that was solid versus the run in the opener, ranking eighth in EPA per play (-0.195) while looking much-improved on the edge. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
The Patriots didn’t make any game-changing plays in the kicking game in Week 1, but they looked decent for the most part. The same cannot be said for the Steelers: Atlanta averaged 11.0 yards on its three punt returns on Sunday, and also gained an average of 30.8 yards on four kickoff returns. New England taking advantage of the latter is not a given, despite showing some signs of life in that area, but Pittsburgh’s punt coverage could be in for a tough ride versus Marcus Jones. Unless the team finds a way to neutralize him — by consistently aiming to kick out of bounds, for example — the NFL’s all-time leader in punt return average could become a major factor in the game. | Edge: Patriots
Coaching
The Patriots coaching staff might not be happy with all of its decisions in Week 1, but overall had the team in a position to win. The Steelers actually did manage to win, even if said W came against a lesser opponent than the reigning world champions. Still, on the whole we are giving the advantage in the coaching matchup to New England. Its staff has superior experience working with each other, and all in all has shown an ability to get the most out of the talent available (see: Gabe Jacas). Pittsburgh’s Mike McCarthy is, of course, one of the most successful head coaches of his era, but that difference in intra-staff experience — plus more time to prepare — is enough for us to give New England the nod here. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
In spit of their loss in Week 1 and A.J. Brown since landing on injured reserve, the Patriots are the more complete team top to bottom. The difference might not be as drastic as our comparison might suggest, but we can see the defense put the clamps on Aaron Rodgers and company while Drake Maye bounces back from arguably the worst quarter of football he has played since entering the NFL. This should be enough to earn a victory in the home opener, and any other outcome would frankly be worrying even at this early stage of the season.
