Illinois saw its 12-game winning streak snapped Saturday night with a narrow overtime loss to Michigan State in East Lansing. The Illini had opportunities to further strengthen an already impressive resume but instead added another Quad 1A loss.
Following the loss, Illinois moved to 20-4 overall and 11-2 in Big Ten play. The Illini now sit in second place in the conference, one game behind Michigan atop the standings.
Despite suffering its fourth loss of the season, Illinois still boasts one of the strongest
NCAA Tournament resumes in college basketball. The road loss to the Spartans may have dropped the Illini a spot or two on the seed list (likely behind Houston and Iowa State), but they are expected to remain on the two-seed line heading into their matchup with Wisconsin.
Wisconsin travels to Champaign on Tuesday night, giving Illinois another opportunity to earn a win over a projected NCAA Tournament team. A home victory over the Badgers would add a Quad 2 win to the Illini resume.
Let’s take a deeper look at Illinois’ current NCAA Tournament profile and what lies ahead.
Illinois Resume Snapshot
- 20–4 Overall Record
- NET: 4
- KPI: 9
- SOR: 8
- WAB: 7
- BPI: 7
- KenPom: 4
- Bart Torvik: 5
Quadrant Breakdown
- Quad 1A: 5–4
- Quad 1: 6–4
- Quad 2: 4–0
- Quad 1 & 2: 10–4
- Quad 3: 3–0
- Quad 4: 7–0
All of these metrics represent a snapshot of Illinois’ current tournament resume as evaluated by the NCAA Selection Committee and are subject to daily change. Illinois’ five Quad 1A wins are the most in the country, more than projected one seeds such as Arizona, Michigan, Duke, and UConn. Additionally, the Illini have zero losses outside of Quad 1 for the first time since the quadrant system was introduced in 2019.
Illinois currently projects as a two-seed but still has a realistic path to the one-line with several high-value opportunities remaining. The Illini will play exclusively Quad 1 and Quad 2 games over their next five contests:
- Wisconsin: Quad 2
- Indiana: Quad 2
- at USC: Quad 1
- at UCLA: Quad 1A
- Michigan: Quad 1A
There is no shortage of chances for Illinois to continue building its case for a high seed and potentially secure St. Louis as its first- and second-round destination in the NCAA Tournament.
The dream path for Illinois would be St. Louis for the opening weekend, Chicago for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, and Indianapolis for the Final Four, similar to the 2004-05 team’s route, which went through Indianapolis and Chicago before falling in the national championship game in St. Louis.
Illinois should land in St. Louis for the first two rounds if it finishes ahead of at least one of Purdue, Iowa State, or Vanderbilt on the seed list. However, the Illini cannot be placed in Chicago as a regional site unless they earn a No. 1 seed and pass Michigan due to NCAA bracketing principles.
While challenging, Illinois still has a viable path to a No. 1 seed if it can win out in the regular season and receive help from projected top seeds such as UConn, Michigan, and Duke. Those teams would need to suffer additional losses for the door to open.
Running the table down the stretch would not only keep Illinois in the conversation for a No. 1 seed, but also position the Illini to claim their first regular-season Big Ten title since 2022.
