Here we go. After concluding the regular season with a convincing win over Virginia Tech, the 10-2 Virginia Cavaliers make yet another trip down to the state of North Carolina, hoping to bring home an ACC
Championship against the Duke Blue Devils. In Part One of our preview, Dan broke down the matchup between Duke’s offensive attack and UVA’s defense. Here, we’ll take a look at the Cavalier offense versus the Blue Devil defense.
Offensive coordinator Des Kitchings and quarterback Chandler Morris now get a second shot against the Blue Devils, hoping for a similar outcome as when the two teams last met on November 15th. The Cavalier offense excelled in the win, with J’Mari Taylor and Harrison Waylee combining for 195 rushing yards, while Trell Harris was the star in the passing game, going for 161 yards and a touchdown.
With the ‘Hoos eyeing the ACC title Morris and the program set out for at the start of the season, here are three players, two keys, and one prediction in Part Two of our preview.
Three Players
LB Luke Mergott
Mergott’s had a solid season as a sophomore, but has really come on in the back half of the year. He’s led the Blue Devils in tackles in each of the last three games, including nine stops in the first meeting with UVA. He’s on as much of a heater as anyone on this defense after getting home for a sack against North Carolina and pouncing on two fumbles last week against Wake Forest, in addition to a combined 14 tackles in that stretch.
He is one of a handful of underclassmen seeing substantial time for Manny Diaz on the defensive side of the ball in the home stretch of the season.
CB Chandler Rivers
Recently named as a Second-Team All-ACC honoree, Rivers, like he was last season, has been one of Duke’s most impactful players on the perimeter. He’s racked up 33 tackles and eight pass breakups, while picking off two passes, one of which came against Morris down in Durham. Rivers can play all over the field and can get after the run game when needed. J’Mari Taylor rolled for 133 rushing yards in the first meeting, including a 78-yard touchdown; the Blue Devils will need the senior cornerback to help prevent lightning from striking twice.
S DaShawn Stone
Without star safety Terry Moore in the lineup all season, Duke’s leaned on a handful of players in the backend. Stone’s been one of those guys as a sophomore. And, like many young DBs, he’s had his share of ups and downs. He’s racked up 73 tackles on the year to go with two interceptions, but owns the second-highest completion rate of any Duke defender, despite seeing the ball thrown his way 18 times less than Rivers, who’s narrowly higher at 71%, while playing over 100 additional snaps.
Two Keys
Continue to test the secondary
In the first matchup, I mentioned the importance of getting both Jahmal Edrine and Trell Harris humming early on. Harris was the star of the game, going for a season-high eight grabs for 150+ yards and a touchdown, while Edrine made two catches for 34 yards. We’ll ride the same wave this week, but in an expanded form. The ‘Hoos found production from Kam Courtney and John Rogers in addition to the usual suspects against the Hokies, while Duke’s secondary, which hasn’t been great all year, has been just as shaky since UVA last faced it.
The Blue Devils allowed 342 passing yards against the Demon Deacons and 204 against UNC. Chandler Morris went for 314 in the first meeting. This passing defense has been bad, to put it bluntly, and with numerous UVA pass-catchers coming into Saturday with confidence from the past two games, I see Morris being able to throw the ball around on a night that looks to be slight “warmer” than in Scott Stadium last week even if Cam Ross, who was great in the first meeting, is unable to go after suffering a hamstring injury that has him questionable to play as of Thursday night.
Limit the turnovers
While Duke’s offense was largely thwarted in the first meeting, Darian Mensah and the Blue Devils have poured the points on teams throughout the year. In a championship game where things might get weird, the ‘Hoos can’t allow field position to be gifted to Mensah and co. off turnovers.
Morris’ two picks were the lone giveaways in the last game, one of which was a bit of a fluky screen pass that went for a touchdown, which played a part in making the 34-17 final score look much better than the game truly was. If he can play mistake-free football, on top of balancing the overall offensive attack with the running game, UVA could wear down this defense in the earlier stages of the second half.
One Prediction
The month of November has been a struggle for Duke’s defense. Manny Diaz’s team allowed 25 points to UNC, with Bill Belichick’s group struggling as much as any ACC team all year on the offensive side of the ball, and 32 to a Wake Forest team that’s been in the bottom half of the league in a handful of offensive categories as well.
Like Dan mentioned in Part One of our preview, the strength-on-strength matchup in this game lies between UVA’s defense versus Duke’s offense. UVA’s offense, on the other hand, is looking much better than Duke’s ability to get stops at this point. I’m putting my trust in UVA to to move the ball. I see this game being close for at least the majority of time, but a Chandler Morris and J’Mari Taylor balanced, masterclass of a game could put the ‘Hoos ahead earlier than most expect.
Tony Elliott and this UVA program have been building towards Saturday night for four long years, and if there were ever a time this team was going to tighten up and drastically underperform, it would have been last weekend against the Hokies, with the pressure to end the streak and punch a ticket into this game weighing them down. The ‘Hoos looked sharp last week, so there’s good reason to believe they’ll be ready to get after Duke from the opening kick.
The ‘Hoos have felt like the team of destiny for much of this season, and I see them setting that in stone in Charlotte. Morris and the offense pick up where they left off weeks ago in Durham and punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff in a close, but controlled ACC title game win.
Prediction: UVA 31, Duke 23
