We here at Acme Packing Company are careful not to judge quarterbacks on raw counting statistics unless they suit our needs. For instance, we love Brett Favre’s longevity stats, yards, and touchdowns, but when it comes to interceptions, for all QBs with at least 2500 attempts, he’s 75th (out of 147). Not too shabby! But usually, especially lately, counting stats have worked against us because the Packers run at SUCH a slow pace that Jordan Love really can’t rack up any significant yardage or touchdown totals.
And so, typically we rely on things like EPA (Expected Points Added) and CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected), which makes us feel all warm and fuzzy.
But fast forward to THIS season and suddenly Jordan Love LEADS THE LEAGUE IN PASSING YARDS. And also attempts, which is not as good, but still noteworthy. This is also new and fascinating, because we’ve all been asking to let Jordan cook for quite a while, but with all that volume, plus a trash running game (and some other factors, which we will get to), he hasn’t really been himself from an efficiency standpoint. He’s still more efficient than an average quarterback with .15 EPA per play (down significantly from .289 last year), and so the offense still works, but it’s a big drop. On that point, the only quarterback who had a better EPA per play last season was this week’s opponent, Drake Maye (.322).
Maye is in his third season, and unquestionably great, but just how great is still a bit of a mystery. Last year he was probably the best quarterback in football, leading the way in EPA per play and the NextGenStats’ version of CPOE, which is widely regarded as the most accurate version. But like Love, Maye didn’t pass that much, finishing 12th in attempts with 492 (Love was 19th with 439, but he also missed two games. They were very close on a per-game basis).
Maye’s numbers are still good this year as he’s third among active starters in EPA per play (.279, down almost .05 from last year), but his volume has ALSO fallen as he ranks 17th in pass attempts behind players like Geno Smith and CJ Stroud. His CPOE has also decreased by over 50%, and he ranks seventh instead of first. Maye is, I think, having an objectively better season than Love in all the ways that matter from an individual player perspective. However, Love has almost certainly been the more valuable player, because when you are adding value to a football team, volume absolutely matters.
One of the big reasons the Patriots have thrown fewer passes than the Packers is because (how best to put this), the Patriots’ running game doesn’t suck as much as Green Bay’s. None of this is hyperbole, and it’s important to understand that both running games do in fact suck. The Pats as a unit have run 240 times for a 4.1 YPC average, however, that average is dragged up by Drake Maye scrambles. The top two Patriots running backs, TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stephenson, both average under four yards per carry, and have combined for 148 carries. The Packers as a unit average a ridiculously terrible 2.9 yards per carry, and as a result, they’ve only run the ball 170 times. The Patriots are definitely better, and they have definitely been better running AND passing without question. Their offense, by any account, should be MUCH more effective; however, in the aggregate, the Patriots only average 1.6 more points per game than Green Bay (please keep Trey Smack in mind while reading this) simply because the Packers pass more.
When it’s all said and done, it seems like Maye is still the clear winner here, and I won’t argue with anyone who makes this claim. He’s an outstanding young player. But even so, it’s not quite so cut and dried. Both quarterbacks have suffered this season compared to last season based on factors outside of their control. Love has suffered from a terrible offensive line and running game. Maye has lost Romeo Doubs and AJ Brown for extended periods, and his protection has struggled as well. And for Love, there is the added issue of drops.
The Packers have an insane number of drops. Matthew Golden leads the league in drops with 9, and overall, the Packers lead the league with a drop rate of a robust 7% of targets. Those are balls that Jordan Love has put on target (often for what should be big gains) and just don’t happen. And on the other side, Patriots pass catchers have been some of the most reliable in the league, dropping just 2.5% of targets.
Love’s efficiency numbers would be substantially higher with an average number of drops instead of whatever this is. Would it be enough to catch Maye? Ehhh, maybe not, but given how often the Packers are throwing the ball, it would certainly be enough to push the Packers’ offense, in the aggregate, past the Pats.
In the end, it doesn’t really matter if Maye is better or if Love is better. I think the real lesson is that quarterbacks really are impacted significantly by their surrounding cast, their volume, and their coaching, and that we can never really truly remove all of that context. Secondarily, it’s important to account for that context when making predictions! I’m not sure that Matthew Golden is going to start catching everything, and I’m worried that Josh Jacobs’ return is going to lead to more pointless running, but there is a path to victory here for Green Bay. Hopefully they take it.
