Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua are really going to fight on Friday, December 19, headlining a Netflix-streamed card from Miami’s Kaseya Center.
The journey to get to this fight was as odd as the matchup itself,
which pits a social media celebrity with a questionable but profitable professional boxing career against a former multiple-time world heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist.
The 28-year-old Paul (12-1, 7 KO) originally intended to face lightweight Gervonta “Tank” Davis in an exhibition in November, but that fight was scrapped. Whether that was due to Davis facing yet more legal troubles, or the type of legal troubles he was facing, or just because the “fight” wasn’t selling tickets the way the involved parties had hoped, it’s not happening.
Paul, to his credit, moved on to a far more dangerous idea, which is facing the 36-year-old Joshua (28-4, 25 KO), a fully legitimate heavyweight.
Is Paul vs Joshua an exhibition? What are the rules?
No, it’s a fully sanctioned, professional fight, set for eight rounds in the heavyweight division. The only abnormal thing on paper is that Joshua had to weigh in 245 lbs or under, and he did so today, tipping the scales at 243.4 lbs. This is lighter than Joshua has been in recent bouts, but about what he weighed in many of his professional fights, including both of his bouts with Oleksandr Usyk in 2021-22.
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua preview
On paper, and taking everything as legit and on the level, it’s nearly impossible to see Paul winning this fight. In his 13-fight “pro boxing career,” we’ve seen Paul face a fellow social media novice, a basketball player who didn’t have a clue how to box, several aged ex-MMA champions, two club fighters, a 58-year-old man, a 39-year-old middleweight blown up to cruiserweight who hadn’t been a serious player in the sport in years, and Tommy Fury.
Tommy Fury is not a serious boxing prospect and really never has been. Fury is, frankly, just a less famous version of Jake Paul, a guy whose last name and reality TV fame allowed him to score bigger paydays than his ability was ever going to get him. Fury beat Jake Paul in 2023, barely, and has done basically nothing since. (He defeated KSI by close decision eight months after fighting Paul, and then didn’t fight again for 17 months, returning with a six-round club fight in Budapest.)
But the fact is, Paul just didn’t look very good when in against someone who was actually right about his level. Jake has put in legitimate work, but while he does have some natural power and is a pretty good athlete, his opposition has been extremely carefully selected, and we’ve never really had to see him use whatever skills he does or doesn’t have against a serious boxer.
Enter Anthony Joshua.
AJ is past his best days, without question. He was knocked out by Daniel Dubois in his most recent fight, which came 15 months ago. But he’s still a top 10 heavyweight, probably, and he’s far closer to his prime than Chavez Jr was, and nobody else Paul has fought other than a grandfatherly Mike Tyson ever even had a boxing prime. And he’s much bigger, more powerful, and harder-hitting than Chavez Jr, too.
Still, it’s an odd fight to predict, simply because it’s such an odd fight, period. In theory, eight rounds could give Paul a chance to jab and play it safe and maybe sneak five rounds in and score the upset here. But can he really do that? Joshua may not be Usyk or Tyson Fury as a pure boxer, but he’s got a lot more pure boxing ability than we’ve ever seen from Paul.
So I think you have to look at similar matchups for the two. On the Paul side, there’s really nothing that comes close to fighting Joshua. Tommy Fury comes closest, I suppose, and Fury was able to fluster Paul and neutralize him for the most part. Even if you think that fight should have been narrowly scored for Jake instead of Tommy, we can all surely agree that it was far from “easy work” for Paul, and kind of exposed how limited his skill set is.
For Joshua, the closest equivalent on his record, outside of very early fights against no-hopers, would be former UFC champ Francis Ngannou and their fight in early 2024.
Ngannou had fought Tyson Fury in a boxing ring and actually made an argument of it. Some have speculated that Fury went in there meaning to “carry” Ngannou and make more of a “show” of it all, or that Tyson simply hadn’t taken the fight seriously and had to be woken up within the bout itself.
Joshua didn’t have those issues. He absolutely demolished Ngannou inside of two rounds.
Nobody Paul has faced can generate near the raw punching power of Anthony Joshua, old man Mike Tyson included, and the elderly version of Tyson, even in the pillow gloves that fight featured, was the most dangerous puncher Paul has faced to date.
Joshua’s not in his absolute prime, but he’s not an old man, either. He doesn’t get out of shape between fights. Even with a layoff, even coming off of a loss in a high-level fight, he is by miles the most threatening force that Paul has faced.
Joshua may take the same approach he took with Ngannou, which was to come out, impose his will immediately, and make clear to the former UFC champ that he simply did not belong in a boxing ring with someone of AJ’s stature, no matter what the Tyson Fury fight had suggested was possible for him.
Or, Joshua could be a little more cautious, feel out what Paul has for a round or two, and then go on the attack. Either way, Joshua would be well-advised to be aggressive. While that opens things up for Paul to land a shot — and Paul is plenty big and strong enough to do damage if he lands clean, do not think otherwise — it also puts Paul under pressure, and no opponents have really tested his will or ability to persevere when things are looking rough.
Joshua’s biggest mistake could be to let Paul linger and find any sort of groove, to settle in and get any confidence. AJ would still have advantages, in that he should be able to out-box Paul in a slower-paced affair, but it’s the tempo at which Paul would have his best opportunities to land a good punch or two and potentially steal rounds, and with an eight-round limit, Joshua can’t risk Paul stealing rounds.
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua prediction
I’m going to go with the idea that Joshua comes in here to make a statement, as he did against Ngannou. If AJ wants a huge money fight in 2026 with a likely “returning” Tyson Fury, he has to win this and he has to do it in some amount of style.
Bottom line: Unless Jake Paul has been secretly hiding a lot of weapons, or he’s made dramatic improvements to his game in this camp, Anthony Joshua should be able to do as he pleases in this fight. He should be able to truck Jake Paul. If he can’t, then AJ and his team will have to have a whole lot of other discussions starting Saturday.
Prediction: Anthony Joshua KO-3
Paul vs Joshua undercard predictions
- Anderson Silva vs Tyron Woodley: Two former MMA fighters, now 50 and 43 years of age, respectively. Silva hasn’t had a fight since his 2022 decision loss to Paul, and Woodley is 0-2 in boxing, losing twice to Paul in 2021. The truth is, this fight means nothing other than some bragging rights in a sport that is distantly secondary for the fighting legacy of both men. I’m making a prediction here, but the truth is it doesn’t matter who wins. Prediction: Silva UD-6
- Alycia Baumgardner vs Leila Beaudoin: When on her game, three-belt holder Baumgardner is one of the best in the sport, and she’s another notable name along with MVP stablemate Amanda Serrano pushing for a 12-round distance and three-minute rounds for women’s championship fights. She has it here, and it’s also why she gave up the WBC title, so she’s no longer undisputed. Beaudoin is a decent fighter and contender, but she’s not on Baumgardner’s level. Prediction: Baumgardner UD-12
- Cherneka Johnson vs Amanda Galle: Johnson is undisputed bantamweight champ, and the likable Aussie is also routinely fun to watch, a real scrapper who has stoppages in her past two wins over Nina Hughes and Shurretta Metcalf, fully unifying the division. Galle is a 36-year-old Canadian and we’re pretty much going to find out how good she is with this fight. It’s hard to pick her because she’s far less proven, but you also never truly know until you know for sure. This is Galle’s “for sure” chance, but I’m leaning toward the champ. Prediction: Johnson UD-10
- Caroline Dubois vs Camilla Panatta: Dubois, the WBC lightweight titleholder, has just signed with MVP, and this will be her first fight under their banner. She’s one of the rising names in women’s boxing, already fairly well proven as a top dog at 135, and deserves to be a huge favorite over Italy’s Panatta, whose record is really thin. This figures to be a showcase for Dubois. Prediction: Dubois TKO-7
