The Cleveland Cavaliers have had many things go against them this season. Their outside shooters not performing to their capabilities is one of those things. Currently, the Cavs are 28th in three-point percentage and lead the league in attempts. Last season, they were second in three-point percentage.
Missing shots is going to make the offense look broken. According to head coach Kenny Atkinson, the offense isn’t as bad as the results would indicate.
“I’ll just go with the data,” Atkinson said before
Sunday’s loss to the Charlotte Hornets when asked about his team’s three-point shooting. “We’re sixth in shot quality, overall shot quality. Sixth. Not 26th, sixth. Three-point shot quality we’re 10th. Rim shot quality we’re seventh.”
We don’t have access to the specific metrics the Cavs use to determine shot quality. Atkinson mentioned that who’s taking the shot and what type of shot it is are part of determining the shot quality.
However, the good shot attempts aren’t falling.
Of the currently healthy Cavaliers, four of their top six players in three-point attempts are shooting worse than their career-long average by over 5%. It’s been an extended cold streak that is difficult to game-plan around.
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Atkinson knows that the three-point shot has been an issue and wants them to get into the paint more.
“I’ll keep saying it, every game I’m going through the tape, I’m like, there’s probably four or five [shots where I think], ‘Guys, we can get to the rim,” Atkinson said. “DG (Darius Garland) had one on the fast break [where he went to the rim against the Washington Wizards]. I was so thrilled he went in for a layup instead of running to the corner for a three. And we just keep showing our guys, ‘Here’s a three with some shot difficulty. Here’s an option to go in for a layup. We just keep hammering it.”
The only problem is, the Cavs aren’t finishing when they do get to the basket. They’re 19th in field-goal percentage at the rim after being ninth in that category last season. The lower percentage inside is another symptom of their threes not falling.
“I’ll say this, they’re connected,” Atkinson said about the balance between getting to the rim and shooting from the outside. “When you start making some threes, it opens up, shot fakes, and drives to the rim. If I played one-on-one with you and I wasn’t making any threes, it’s gonna be tough for me to get to the rim because you start backing off me, right, if I don’t have a physical advantage. So, they’re related, but we can do a better job.”
The NBA is a make-or-miss league. The best teams are generally those that make the most outside shots, and vice versa. Last season, seven of the final eight teams remaining in the playoffs were within the top 10 in three-point percentage. Conversely, only one of the bottom 10 teams in three-point percentage had a winning record, and seven of the 10 finished with 30 wins or fewer.
If the Cavs are going to right the ship, it’ll be because they start making their outside shots again. In the meantime, all they can do is continue to emphasize taking the right shots.
“I’d be really worried if we were 26th in shot quality,” Atkinson said. “So I think there’s some positives there. We’re not making them right now, and last year we were making everything. So we’ve completely shifted.
“Last thing I’ll say, we analyze to death these things. Who’s taking threes? Where they’re taking the three? Are they off the dribble? Are they on the move? We’re constantly looking at things to help our guys to make shots, because at the end of the day, that’s what this game is about. So, we’re going through it right now. … Hopefully it’s going to regress to the mean here pretty soon.”
