In my last article, I set up what this series is going to be. We’re building out a callsheet for the Green Bay Packers offense based on their performance by down & distance in 2025. Since I spent an entire article setting this up, we’re not going to belabor the point. Let’s jump right in.
Today, we’re building out the 1st & 10 section of the callsheet. On the season, the Packers averaged 22 non-Red Zone 1st & 10 plays per game, so that’s what we’re going to build to.
It’s obvious, but I’ll say it anyway:
it’s important to perform well on 1st & 10, as that can set the stage for a successful series. This was not the Packers finest area in 2025; they had a success rate of 44.5%, 18th in the league. (A play on 1st down is considered successful if it gains at least 50% of the necessary yardage. So, at least 5 yards.)
Part of this was their play mix. The Packers passed on 46.6% of their 1st & 10 calls, 24th in the league. And yet, when they passed on 1st & 10, they were extremely effective. On passes on 1st & 10, the Packers had a 55.7% success rate (4th) and gained an average of 8.0 yards (5th). On 1st & 10 runs, the Packers had a success rate of 34.7% (22nd) and gained an average of 4.3 yards (22nd).
Now, obviously, it’s not as easy as just saying “throw the ball all the time on 1st & 10,” because it’s not quite as simple as all that. But the Packers are a good passing team and I believe they should be passing more, so I’m goosing the pass rate. We’re going into 1st & 10 with a pass rate of 68.2%.
Let’s start building.
Passes
PA Boot (8.2 YPA, 69.2% Success)
Here’s a former staple in the offense that has been making a comeback over the past few years. It’s based off the Wide Zone run play: fake the wide zone one way, boot out the other to a Sail concept. Defenses have been looking to take this away, but it can still be a simple, effective concept. There are endless variations to this, but, for today, we’re putting in the classic (with a little corner/post route for a half-boot variant).
Two Man Stick (8.7 YPA, 72.7% Success)
We’ve got a couple quick-game staples up next. Need a quick concept to start the series off ahead of the sticks? It’s hard to pick a concept more reliable over the years than Stick. With Love’s ability to throw accurately outside the numbers, this one can be free money. This has been a reliable concept throughout the LaFleur era.
Hank (6.1 YPA, 85.7% Success)
Another quick, 3-step staple. Where Stick can hit someone on the move, Hank is more of a static concept so you’re not getting a lot of yards after the catch with this one. But if you want 5-7 yards? There are worse places to turn.
Bow (8.0 YPA, 50.0% Success)
Now this is one that can catch a guy on the move. It’s a quick hitch with an in-cutter wrapped over the top. If you can hit this in-rhythm, it has the potential to be a big gainer. It also functions as a quick, easy, in-rhythm throw. This is a concept the Packers didn’t use a ton in 2025 (11 total calls, with 5 of them on 1st & 10), but I’d like to see that increase a bit in 2026.
Cross-Country Dagger (8.3 YPA, 50.0% Success)
Jayden Reed is a killer on that intermediate crosser from the slot, man. His quickness off the line, separation at the top of the route and speed across the field makes him an ideal fit for this role. The Packers typically like to pair this with something like Hank on the other side. Tremendous concept for the skillsets of their receivers.
Verts (6.3 YPA, 42.1% Success)
Not the most consistent of concepts, but Love operates this well. It can pay off with explosives, but can also provide intermediate gains. If downfield is covered, it can also provide some room underneath for a checkdown.
Portland (10.3 YPA, 50.0% Success)
We’re in shot territory with these next couple. You’ve got some late checkdown options if you want them, but I want a couple big game hunting opportunities on 1st & 10.
Mills (11.5 YPA, 50.0% Success)
Mills is a close cousin to Portland (with Mills, aka Fox 2 X Y Hook, being the first iteration). Like Portland, we’re going big game hunting, but we’ve got a boundary option to the other side if the coverage takes the post away. Sometimes that’s a deep curl. In the clip above, it’s a deep out route.
High Cross (8.4 YPA, 42.9% Success)
All of the concepts here are dependent on the type of coverage called to some extent, but this is one that is really only effective against Single-High coverages. If you know you’re getting Man coverage, this one is a killer.
Wolf (10.5 YPA, 75.0% Success)
Throws outside the numbers, babyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.
Bench (7.9 YPA, 54.5% Success)
A really nice play action concept that has multiple answers against coverage.
TE Shallow Leak (37.0 YPA, 100.0% Success)
The success on the clip above comes on the vertical Alert, but the TE leaking through the teeth of the defense can work really well off misdirection in the backfield. If you’re facing a team with a group of linebackers with suspect eyes, this one is going to rip.
Scissors (13.5 YPA, 50.0% Success)
A nice downfield concept that can cause coverage confusion on the back-end.
Runs
Power (4.1 YPA, 42.9% Success)
I tend to lump all gap-scheme runs into the Power bucket, so this can be a wide-ranging category. The Packers have built their line with the intention to lean more into gap-scheme runs. And, while the results haven’t necessarily been where you want them to be just yet (for a variety of reasons), it’s still one of their most effective types of runs on 1st & 10, so we’ll throw a couple versions on the callsheet.
Inside Zone (4.7 YPA, 29.5% Success)
I lump Inside Zone and Duo into the same bucket, so I’d lean more on the Duo side of things here (Duo being a more power-based run that prioritizes double-teams up front).
Look at that success rate of 29.5%, though. That’s horrendous. If we can’t improve on that, I’m calling one of these at the beginning of the game, but only to prove a point that it’s still not working. “We’re calling more Power & Passes,” I scream into the headset until they fire me mid-game.
Outside Pitch (5.1 YPA, 42.9% Success)
This is a little better. The interior of the offensive line hasn’t been a great run-blocking unit for a couple years. On the flipside, the Packers have a couple excellent blocking wide receivers (Watson and Wicks) and a psychopath at tight end (Kraft). Zach Tom is a good run-blocker and Jordan Morgan has shown some improvement there, as well. With the personnel, the edges are a more favorable attack point than the middle.
Spinner FB Split (11.0 YPA, 100.0% Success)
The Spinner series wasn’t quite as prevalent in 2025, but it still showed up and was effective when used. I’d definitely lean more into that than Inside Zone.
RPOs
Inside Zone / Bubble (6.5 YPA, 53.3% Success)
I know RPOs are a dirty word in some corners of the internet, but I don’t like those corners. Not only can they provide good answers (especially if you sport a less-than-stellar run game), they can also drag some defenders away from the point of attack. On the season, Inside Zone performed better on 1st & 10 with an RPO tag than when just called a straight run. So give me RPOs.
Zone Read / WR Screen (8.0 YPA, 50.0% Success)
This one plays out like a triple option (although I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Packers QB throw this). The QB has a read option at the mesh point (hand the ball off or pull the ball and run it himself, keying off the defensive end away from the run side), but he also has an option to throw to the boundary on a WR screen away from the run point. Theoretically, he could keep the ball on a run, then flip the ball out wide if a defender closes from the slot.
We made it through 1st & 10! As I said, this is the longest section of the callsheet, so it’s all easy sledding from here.
Here’s what our callsheet section looks like.
You may notice that I said the Packers run an average of 22 plays per game on 1st & 10 but I only have 19 plays here. That’s due to the volume of some of these. The Packers ran some of these multiple times a game, so I’m doing roughly the same thing. PA Boot, Two Man Stick and Power are all getting called twice.
Albums listened to: Delaney Bailey – Concave; Gorillaz – The Mountain; Big Star – #1 Record; Manchester Orchestra – Simple Math; Julien Baker – Little Oblivions
