TCR Bracketology 2.0: We’re Going Streaking!

With Illinois only having a win at Penn State that does little to change their resume this week, I thought I would use the introduction to talk about streaks, but not the ones in my toddler’s underwear for a change. While it is far from official at this point, Illinois is well on its way to its sixth straight NCAA tournament appearance (would be seventh if COVID did not cancel the 2020 NCAA tournament).

While that may not seem like much, in the ever-changing landscape of college sports, five straight

appearances is actually tied for the eighth-longest streak in college basketball. Here are the only schools with longer streaks:

1. Michigan State, 27 years
2. Gonzaga, 26 years
3. Purdue, 10 years (saved by COVID, they wouldn’t have gone in 2020)
4. Houston, 7 years
5. Tennessee, 7 years
6. Kansas, 6 years
7. Baylor, 6 years

Most of those teams, are safely in the tournament this year as well, but Baylor is firmly on the bubble and at risk of dropping off the list, unless somehow picking up James Nnaji mid-season, who was drafted to the NBA and part of the trade to send Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks, can turn their season around.

For Illinois, getting to a sixth straight tourney would match the six-year tournament drought the Illini had just before the streak started. In honor of that turnaround, let’s also look at the power conference schools with the longest NCAA tournament droughts:

1. DePaul, 21 years
2. Boston College, 16 years
3. Stanford, 11 years
4. Cal/Utah, 9 years
5. Wake Forest/SMU, 8 years
6. Butler, 7 years
7. Cincinnati/UCF/Washington/Minnesota, 6 years

While DePaul and Boston College continue to be awful, many of these woebegone franchises have a chance to find rainfall this March. SMU and UCF just knocked off North Carolina and Kansas respectively this past week, and both sit comfortably on the 6-line. Cal squeaked into the bracket with a close win over Notre Dame last week, and a neutral site win over UCLA on their resume. Stanford, Wake Forest, Butler, and Washington are all on the wrong side of the bubble right now, but still within striking distance with a signature win or two. The rest are already looking ahead to next year, barring a stunning change of trajectory.

Midwest (Chicago)

1. Michigan (Buffalo)
2. Duke (Greenville)
3. Houston (Oklahoma City)
4. Illinois (Philadelphia)
5. Kansas
6. SMU
7. Georgia
8. Seton Hall
9. LSU
10. Saint Louis
11. Miami (OH)
12. Yale
13. William & Mary

Notes on the Region:

Illinois starts its journey in the City of Brotherly Love, so it is only fitting they match up with the university named after the British monarchs of cousinly love, King Williams III and Queen Mary II. William & Mary is confusing, because they are named after British royalty, but nicknamed Tribe, with a weird Harry Potter eagle-lion as their mascot. Pick a lane guys. They are the second-oldest university in the United States but have never qualified for the NCAA tournament.

After getting past Colonial U things really get interesting for the Illini. In the second round, Tre White, Bill Self and Kansas await. White has been playing fantastic for Kansas, averaging career highs across the board and stabilizing the team after projected top-3 pick Darryn Peterson went down with a hamstring injury. If Peterson has not shut down completely for the NBA Draft, they would make for a very dangerous 5-seed, but without him they could be at risk of falling to Yale.

The reunion tour continues in the Sweet 16, as a Big Ten rematch with Chicagoan Morez Johnson in Chicago would be given primetime, broadcast television billing by the tournament. As if Michigan was not already steamrolling everyone, Johnson has been coming into his own of late, matching a career-high 24 against McNeese before breaking it the next game with 29 in a blowout against USC. This Sweet 16 matchup is possible because Illinois is the fifth-seeded team from the Big Ten (the first four seeded teams must go in different regions), and Illinois and Michigan only meet once in the regular season.

On the other half of the bracket, Duke and Houston are on a crash course for a rubber match in the Elite Eight. Houston knocked Duke out in the Final Four last year, after the Blue Devils got the better of Kelvin Sampson in the Sweet 16 in 2024. To get there, Houston would have to get past SMU in an All-Texas Houston vs. Dallas clash.

West (San Jose)

1. Arizona (San Diego)
2. Gonzaga (Portland)
3. Alabama (Tampa Bay)
4. Michigan State (Buffalo)
5. Villanova
6. UCF
7. Utah State
8. USC
9. Miami
10. Virginia Tech
11. NC State
12. Illinois State
13. Liberty

Notes on the Region:

If things go chalk, Tommy Lloyd will need to beat the coach he served under for 20 years at Gonzaga. Arizona and Gonzaga are the clear torch bearers for western time zone basketball, so it would be fitting that they go 1-2 in the western region.

To get there Gonzaga would need to beat Alabama once again. They met during feast week, and Gonzaga survived the track meet 95-85. Of the top teams, Alabama has the most extreme gap between offensive and defensive rating, ranking 2nd in KENPOM in offensive efficiency, but a pitiful 70th in defensive efficiency.

Kevin Willard has led Villanova to a quick turnaround from the disastrous Kyle Neptune years. They have mid-major talent leading the way, along with freshman five-star Acaden Lewis. A Sweet 16 battle with Michigan State will likely be a physical slog, but I trust Tom Izzo in those situations.

In the double-digit seeds, a couple ex-Illini pop up. Virginia Tech jump into the bracket after a win over in-state rival Virginia. Amani Hansberry has been fantastic for the Hokies, averaging 16.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.7 steals per game. With Belmont losing, Illinois State moves into the bracket as the Missouri Valley representative. Brandon Lieb is putting up 4.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game for the Redbirds.

East (Washington D.C.)

1. UConn (Philadelphia)
2. Purdue (Saint Louis)
3. BYU (Portland)
4. North Carolina (Tampa Bay)
5. Arkansas
6. Tennessee
7. St. Mary’s
8. Clemson
9. Auburn
10. Kentucky
11. Cal/Ohio St.
12. McNeese
13. UCSD

Notes on the Region:

Kentucky and Auburn have been big SEC underachievers this year, with both losing all of their biggest non-conference matchups. Talented underperformers make for dangerous second round opponents for high seeds though. Kentucky could pull off the rare feat (for a non-Big Ten team) of beating Purdue and Indiana a combined three times this year, in preseason (exhibition with Purdue), regular season (Indiana) and postseason (Purdue again).

In Tampa Bay, North Carolina and Arkansas are the kind of four or five seeds that would be susceptible to a first round upset to dangerous teams like McNeese or UC San Diego. If they make it out of the first round, a second-round matchup between John Calipari and Hubert Davis could end up sending the loser into retirement.

South (Houston)

1. Iowa State (Saint Louis)
2. Vanderbilt (Greenville)
3. Nebraska (Oklahoma City)
4. Texas Tech (San Diego)
5. Louisville
6. Virginia
7. Iowa
8. Florida
9. Indiana
10. Saint John’s
11. UCLA/Baylor
12. Tulsa
13. Utah Valley

Notes on the Region:

Florida’s backcourt has taken a massive set backwards from Walter Clayton and Alijah Martin, as Boogie Fland and Xavian Lee have been inefficient and incredibly underwhelming. The latest flop in their title defense was a 76-74 loss to Mizzou (yes, that Mizzou that lost by 43 to the Illini). Their predictive metrics are holding them afloat, but as preseason projections fade out of those metrics, they will need to start getting better results to even stay in the bracket. Their first-round matchup here pits them against Indiana with their Florida transfer Sam Alexis.

Nebraska consolidated their position as a real contender by knocking off Michigan State this past week. They aren’t the most talented team, but they have cohesiveness and age on their side, which can get them through to at least the Seet Sixteen before the talent gap becomes too much to overcome.

In general, this is the try hard region, as the top three seeds are all overachieving preseason projections and lack the lottery picks of most of the other seeded teams. Texas Tech and their superstar duo of Christian Anderson and J.T. Toppin or Louisville and their three-point barrage would be trendy upset Final Four picks from this region.

First Four Out: Boise State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU

Next Four Out: New Mexico, Texas A&M, VCU, Butler

Bids By Conference:

• Big Ten: 10
• ACC: 10
• SEC: 9
• Big 12: 8
• Big East: 4
• West Coast: 2