Let’s see, how does this go? Welcome back to the remainder of the season. The post-All-Star break portion of the season. Or in common vernacular, the second half. Roughly two weeks before peak trading season. This is almost always an interesting time in the life of a large market team (even if they occasionally behave as a more financially restrained team).
Let’s get back into the groove, shall we? I’ve been liking to start with the perspective check. I do so, probably as much for me as any of you.
This team tends to look very bad when it’s bad and very good when it’s good and have little in-between. Four teams have more wins than the Cubs. Two teams have as many wins as the Cubs. The Cubs are on pace to win 90 games. As it stands today, the Cubs would be the top Wild Card team by virtue of a tie breaker with the Phillies, earned by winning the season series.
This was one of those games that wasn’t in either category. The team looked okay. You can’t except the worst inning of the whole game. However, except for one weird inning, the Cubs won the other eight innings 2-1. You certainly can’t assume sequencing holds. Afterall, the single biggest question mark for this team is its bullpen. Could it have otherwise held a 2-1 lead over the final three innings? I mean, they couldn’t hold a 4-2 deficit over the final three innings when that would have been helpful.
That one inning exploded when Michael Busch tried to make a nice play at second. The advancing runner appeared to screed Dansby Swanson a little bit. I wondered at the time if the play wasn’t close to interference. Maybe you look at it closer if your starting shortstop isn’t writhing on the ground in pain from the ball flukishly bouncing off of his glove and hitting him in the face.
Three of the five hits Colin Rea allowed on the evening occurred during that inning and after that play and four of the five hits against him occurred in that inning. Ironically, Busch and Swanson had hooked up on a very similar play two innings earlier. That’s a huge play if Busch makes it, not only getting the first out but also keeping the double play in order. I didn’t look for interviews after the game, but I’ll assume Dansby said he should have fielded that throw. As wild throws go, it wasn’t really. The baserunner just ended up in the line of the throw and ended up screening Swanson. Just unfortunate. You can’t assume the rest of the Cub sequencing but assume that Rea wouldn’t have allowed a single and a homer otherwise. It’s just too much cherry picking. It was just an unfortunate inning.
The offense managed six hits and four walks. Two runs feels pretty reasonable for that level of production. There was just on extra base hit, a double. The Cubs stole a base. The steal led to the first run. The double led to the second run. It’s almost as if those things increase your odds of scoring. We talked about it before the break. This team has most of its wins in games that is scores five or more runs. They simply don’t win many low scoring affairs like this one.
Three Positives:
- Nico Hoerner singled twice.
- Seiya Suzuki had a double, drew a walk and scored a run.
- Gavin Hollowell struck out the only two batters he faced.
- Obligatory Pete Crow-Armstrong: A walk, a stolen base and a run scored in four plate appearances.
Game 97, July 17: Twins 5, Cubs 2 (54-43)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.078). 1-3, 2B, BB, R
- Hero: Michael Busch (.061). 1-4, RBI
- Sidekick: Gavin Hollowell (.055). 0.2 IP, 2 BF, 2 K
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.202). 6 IP, 24 BF, 5 H, BB, 4 R (3 ER), 6 K (L 7-6)
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.137). 0-3, DP
- Kid: Carson Kelly (-.120). 0-4
WPA Play of the Game: Ryan Jeffers’ three-run homer with no outs in the third, turned a tie game into a three run lead. (.200)
Reds Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s RBI single with no outs in the first gave the Cubs the game’s first run. (.118)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 96 Winner: Alex Bregman received 82 of 86 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +24
- Michael Busch +17
- Carson Kelly +15.5
- Ben Brown +13.5
- Trent Thornton/Alex Bregman +12.5
- Edward Cabrera -9.5
- Phil Maton -10
- Nico Hoerner -12
- Dansby Swanson -13
- Caleb Thielbar -14
Take a picture. This is the first time in a very long time that Seiya Suzuki has not been bottom five.
Up Next: Game two of the three game series Saturday. Matthew Boyd (5-1, 4.50) gets the start for the Cubs. They could technically have gotten cute and had him start Friday on four days of rest. But teams generally will get a guy five days when they can. If I were saying this same thing 40 years ago, those words would be three and four respectively. I do sometimes get amazed at how much baseball has changed in my lifetime.
25-year-old Taj Bradley (9-3, 3.59) starts for the Twins. If this is your introduction to the Twins, they have a pretty good pitching staff. Bradley was a fifth round pick of the Rays back in 2018. He was drafted out of one of my favorite ever places, Stone Mountain, Georgia. I was a professional wrestling fan in the 80’s and remember it from that. Taj won his last three starts before the break and four of his last five. In those five starts, he threw 31 innings, allowing just eight runs.
This is a tough matchup.
