Everyone in baseball has now cleared the 20 game threshold, at which I tend to feel the standings become significant. Of course, there are still 140 games to go, but history has shown us that “It’s still only April” turns out to be much of a defense. In reality, the old adage “You can’t win the pennant in April, but you can lose it,” is closer to the truth, even if you swap in “post-season place” for pennant. The baseball playoffs expanded to twelve teams – forty percent of all franchises – for the 2022
season, so over the four seasons completed since then, we have seen 48 teams qualify for October. Only 8% of those teams (4 of 48) were below .500 through twenty games.
Or, if you prefer it expressed the other way: 44 of the 48 teams to be below .500 at that point, failed to make the post-season. Being above .500 was certainly not a guarantee, but the odds were much, much better: 38 of 58 qualified. And if you’re doing the math at home, you’ll already be able to work out that, if you are exactly at 10-10, you would find yourself close to a 50/50 bet. Six of those fourteen teams reached the postseason, eight did not. For amusement, I also searched the standings at each ten-game split thereafter, to see where the cut-off point for being an outside post-season bet was. They’re listed below, along with the number of the 48 playoff teams since 2022 to have been worse than that mark:
- 20 games: 10-10 (four teams)
- 30 games: 14-16 (three)
- 40 games: 19-21 (four)
- 50 games: 23-27 (four)
- 60 games: 28-32 (three)
- 70 games: 34-36 (three)
- 80 games: 40-40 (two)
- 90 games: 45-45 (two)
- 100 games: 51-49 (three)
- 110 games: 57-53 (three)
- 120 games: 60-60 (two)
- 130 games: 67-63 (three)
- 140 games: 72-68 (three)
- 150 games: 79-71 (four)
- 162 games: 86-76 (three)
Obviously, the last reflects the fact that the cut-off line for playoff qualification is not a fixed number. The last playoff team to reach the post-season can have a record as low as 83 victories (Cincinnati last year), while in other seasons, 89 wins can still leave you on the outside (Arizona in 2024). But the above should indicate that the .500 record as a cut-off point is reached more quickly than you might expect. So, what does this mean for the 2026 season? Below, is a chart showing the teams in descending record after 20 games this year, along with the sportsbook odds, and what wagering $200 would get you – teams in green, you bet them to make the playoffs, in red to miss out.
There are some teams in the red section who must be feeling uncomfortable right now. They include the reigning AL pennant holders in Toronto, who are off to a miserable start, tied for the worst record in baseball through 20 games. Mind you, this does happen. I’m sure we all recall that, after the 2023 World Series, neither pennant winner made it back to the playoffs the following year. But perhaps even more shocking are the ongoing struggles of the Mets and Phillies. By cash payroll, they are #1 and #2 in the National League, with a combined salary bill of $677 million. But, right now, they are last and second-last in the league standings.
The list goes on. Seattle and Boston made the post-season last year, while Houston won 87 games, losing out only on a tie-breaker. But all three teams are stuck below .500 this year. That gives you a full hand of teams, who were expected to contend in 2026. However, over the past four seasons, we have typically seen just one team with a losing record through 20 games, able to turn it around and reach the playoffs. If that holds, it means four of those five will be looking at highly disgruntled fanbases at the end of September. Which one do you think might escape that fate? This would be why there is a poll:
On the other side, the Dodgers continue their serene march towards yet another division title. Despite losing consecutive games for the first time over the weekend (to the Rockies, because of course it was), Los Angeles are still on pace for 116 wins. Though I note they are, yet again, proving the futility of spending big on relief pitching. Edwin Diaz – signed to a three-year, $69 million contract – has an ERA of 10.50, and just went on the IL with an elbow issue. Their relievers as a whole are not much better than Arizona’s Bullpen of Misfit Arms: by ERA, they’re ranked 15th, we’re 19th. Somehow, I think they’ll survive.
Looking at the bets, there is the potential to win some significant wonga, if the Cardinals continue their unexpected winning ways. Though the NL Central is looking unexpectedly tough, with all five teams 12-9 or better [you may remember the West was similar last year early on: the 14-9 D-backs were good only for fourth place]. It’s mostly because they have dominated interleague play, going 38-19 against AL opponents. There have only been six games within the division to date, so that will shake itself out once we see more there. The Rays and Twins could also be money-makers, though the latter have now lost four in a row, and could be returning to Earth.
We’ll revisit this at the end of the year, and see how much money we won or lost from these wagers.
