The remainder of the bracket is going to be tough for the Michigan Wolverines, including Sunday’s tilt against the Tennessee Volunteers, but of the two options for the Elite Eight, this was the preferrable opponent. Analytics believe this squad is underseeded (No. 11 overall per Kenpom), but compared to the swarming defense of Iowa State, the Wolverines have to feel great about their chances of advancing to the Final Four.
The Vols lost four of their last six games heading into the NCAA Tournament,
though were impressive against Miami (OH), Virginia, and Iowa State. Their defense is solid (11th) while the offense is productive (31st), perhaps making their No. 6 seed a little misleading. Still, Michigan is the better overall team here, and unfortunately the odds of a third straight year of losing to a No. 1 seed in the Elite Eight are quite high for Rick Barnes and company.
Elite Eight: No. 1 Michigan (34-3) vs. No. 6 Tennessee (25-11)
Date & Time: Sunday, March 29, 2:15 p.m. ET
Location: United Center, Chicago, IL
TV/Streaming: CBS
Oddly, this is the fourth Tournament meeting between these schools since 2010-11, with the prior three favoring the maize and blue. That first contest was a 30-point First Round blowout, followed by a narrow Michigan win in the 2013-14 Sweet Sixteen. The most recent edition was also a close one, with Hunter Dickinson and Eli Brooks each topping 20 points as the No. 11 Wolverines upset No. 3 Tennessee in the Second Round in 2021-22.
Four Stats to Watch
Tennessee 2PT Defense: 49.0% (63rd)
The most obvious path to victory for Michigan over Alabama was using its huge size advantage in the paint, yet both Aday Mara and Morez Johnson had games to forget. The bigs will get their chance for redemption on Sunday against a Tennessee defense that is much better than its SEC rival’s, yet is beatable down low. Weak hands and poor finishing will not work against this frontcourt, but the Wolverines have proven they can win physical battles all year.
As fun as March Roddy (Gayle) is, or the rapid emergence of Trey McKenney, Michigan will not win a national championship if it does not get substantial production from the Mara-Johnson duo. Enough others contributed against the Tide to still claim the win, and perhaps that could be possible again in the Elite Eight, but it would give a lot more confidence heading into the final weekend if these two could bounce back in a big way. The Vols have had issues fouling too, so being aggressive at the rim is a must.
Tennessee Offensive Rebounding: 45.1% (1st)
Yes, that is correct — Tennessee grabs nearly half of its own misses. With an effective field goal rate around 140th, this is less extreme than the Texas A&M gameplan last year, but surely no one will be caught sleeping after witnessing the Vols collect 53.3% (!!) of their opportunities against the Cyclones on Friday. Without basically any outside shooting, second-chance points are the only way this offense scores enough to keep it close.
However, since the Duke and Illinois games, the Wolverines have been pretty solid on the defensive glass and should feel capable of at least reducing the impact of Tennessee’s rebounding. The Michigan frontcourt can match up body-to-body, and this is another way Mara and Johnson can make huge contributions. Like Saint Louis and Alabama hitting threes, there will be frustrating stretches of elongated possessions, but the key is just getting enough rebounds to stop any torrent.
Tennessee Defensive 3PT Rate: 44.7% (33oth)
Few teams see more opposing three-point attempts than the Vols do, yet this rarely seems to burn them, as opponents connect on just 30.3% of their shots, which is 11th-best nationally. This resilience is going to be really tested by a Michigan offense that is making 47.3% of its threes in the Tournament thus far after a cold Big Ten Tournament. The touch could certainly cool off on Sunday, but is that a bet Tennessee really wants to take?
If the Wolverines can stay disciplined and keep taking the high-percentage looks, this should be a huge factor on Sunday. While I still would like to see the offense attack the paint, there are too many good shooters on the roster to not take advantage when the defense is passive. Should Barnes choose to start closing out on shooters, there will be paths open to the hoop. Though the metrics consider this a strong defense, it feels like there is an easy way Michigan blows this game open.
Tennessee Adj. Offense: 31st
As a whole, the Tennessee offense appears fine, but the analytics are actually kind of sour on most of the parts. Bad free throw shooting (286th) on modest attempts (103rd), too many turnovers (233rd), limited three-point attempts (329th), and a slow tempo (290th) make me wonder how anything actually happens aside from getting good second-chance looks on offensive rebounds.
Clearly that strategy has worked this year — and over the past two weekends — but the 24-point loss to Florida (with a 17.1% OReb rate) might tell the story of what happens against defenses with size. The best actual shooter is Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who has improved since his combined 6-for-22 effort in two games against Michigan last season, but aside from him and Nate Ament, there is little outside threat.
I do think there will be enough offensive rebounds and tough makes to avoid an instant blowout (though not off the table for the final score), and maybe the Vols’ three-point defense is real, but the ways Michigan can win are so much more numerous than the ways it can lose. Trust the better team to take care of business and move on to Indianapolis next weekend.
