The Portland Trail Blazers have at least one firm believer in NBA media circles when it comes to their chances in the 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament. That would be Henry Abbott of TrueHoop, who released an article on substack yesterday [subscription required] explaining why the Blazers were most certainly, pretty much definitely, honestly for sure going to get past the Phoenix Suns, Golden State Warriors, and/or Los Angeles Clippers and make it to the real, live NBA playoffs for the first time since
2021.
Abbott hangs his argument on Portland’s increasing defensive prowess since the midpoint of the season, particularly in the last 15 games of the year, where Portland ranked #1 overall in Defensive Rating, even better than the mighty Oklahoma City Thunder.
Describing Portland’s early-season woes, Abbott writes:
Think about how lions hunt. They roll up on the wildebeests with no plan to beat them all. The whole species thrives based on their ability to identify one weak animal, then put all their energy into attacking that one. It’s cruel.
Sometimes NBA offenses hunt like lions. In that period, the Blazers were forced to experiment with unproven players. I love Caleb Love, who was at times electric on offense. But he has never before been an NBA player, rated as one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and this season he played more than 1,000 minutes. Yang Hansen is an 11th percentile defender. For a lot of this season Jerami Grant carried the Blazers, but he has lost a lot of defense and is now in the league’s bottom quarter.
During the middle part of the season, the Blazers had weak defenders in almost every lineup.
Not so anymore, claims the veteran author. Things are different now in Portland:
But since February, those missing Blazers have been returning to action, sidelining some of the weak defenders.
Most importantly: Donovan Clingan happened. His first year he seemed undeniably enormous, but also a little nervous, skittish, clumsy, determined to get an A, but maybe not totally certain how to impress the teacher. He touched a lot of balls that he could not grab, he almost finished a ton of buckets. He often yelled at himself for screwing things up. Sometimes he looked winded, and opponents prayed he’d shoot more 3s.
This year’s different. In the time of Wembanyama, Clingan led the league in several defensive categories. Dennis Rodman’s career rebound percentage: 23 percent. Donovan Clingan’s rebound percentage this season: 23 percent.
Abbott also goes on to praise Matisse Thybulle, Toumani Camara, and other Portland defenders, suggesting that the worst of the lot nowadays may be Deni Avdija, whom he describes as a “huge” man who anchored the defense in times past. Having one of your best defenders become your weakest option is quite an upgrade. According to Abbott, it’s a wholly different team:
The biggest reason the Blazers now have one of the NBA’s best defenses, though, is that with generalized health, they have stopped playing bad defenders altogether. The lions have no easy prey.
We’ll see how the Blazers actually fare. There’s plenty to critique about a “last 15 games” approach to a team’s performance. But if Henry is right, Trail Blazers fans can worry about how their team stacks up against the conference elite in the actual playoffs, not the mediocre middle in a Play-In Tournament he’s sure they’ll emerge from victorious.
