The Buffalo Bills are headed down south this weekend for a playoff matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is the third time these teams have met in the postseason, and the second time the matchup has
occurred under head coach Sean McDermott’s watch in Duval County, FL.
In McDermott’s first playoff appearance as head coach, and Buffalo’s first playoff appearance of the 21st Century, the Jaguars outlasted the Bills in a 10-3 game that featured some combination of terrible offense and great defense from both clubs back in the winter of 2018. In Jacksonville’s first playoff appearance in their franchise’s history, the second-year club invaded Rich Stadium and dealt the Bills their first-ever playoff loss in that building, winning 30-27 and ending the Hall of Fame career of quarterback Jim Kelly. Side note: Kelly’s knee was down.
There are exactly zero Jaguars players left on the roster that participated in the 2017 matchup. For the Bills, there are just three players on the club who played in that game: long snapper Reid Ferguson, cornerback Tre’Davious White, and practice-squad defensive end Shaq Lawson. Turnover in the NFL is expected, and change is the only constant, so it goes without saying that the 2017 matchup has absolutely zero bearing on this weekend’s game.
What will have a great impact on this week game, though, is the personnel involved for each club. Which players stand out as keys to success this week? It’s hard to boil it down to just five without being too obvious, but sometimes, the answers we seek are right in front of us.
Here are our five Bills to watch this week against the Jaguars.
_____________________________________________________________________________
QB Josh Allen
While it’s obvious that Buffalo’s quarterback needs to play well in order for the team to win, there may not be a team that needs its quarterback to be incredible more than the Bills do. Allen has found phone booths all over the country throughout his career while donning his Superman cape, and in the postseason, he’s elevated his play considerably year in and year out.
In 13 career playoff starts, Allen has completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,359 yards, 25 touchdowns, and just four interceptions. He’s also rushed for 668 yards and seven more scores in those games. Allen is the NFL’s active leader in rushing first downs gained in the playoffs, netting 51 such carries over the course of his career.
The history, though, means nothing without another solid performance on Sunday. Jacksonville’s defense is zone-heavy, or at least it has been this season, and Allen has shredded zone defenses during the 2025 season. Will the Jaguars change to a more man-heavy look given Buffalo’s weak wide receiver group, or will they stick with those zone tendencies? Jacksonville also struggles to create pressure with its defensive line alone. Do they blitz Allen, or do they trust their coverage to force him into holding the ball, thus creating the sack opportunities that can keep the Buffalo offense off schedule?
Allen said he did plenty of self-scouting this week at the behest of offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and he came away from those sessions realizing that he left a lot of plays on the table just by failing to take the “easy money” on a play. If Allen keeps Buffalo’s offense on schedule by hitting his check downs and giving his pass-catchers the chance to make yards after the catch, then the Bills have a great chance to come out on top.
Does that mean Allen has to forgo those magical plays that happen when he holds the ball for a long time? Of course not. It’s the hardest thing to manage when a player’s greatest strength can also be a tremendous weakness. The team can’t neuter Allen and prevent him from making chicken salad out of chicken excrement. They just have to hope that he balances the need for easy gains with his desire for hitting a home run on every play.
If the Bills come out and give Allen some play-action looks early, it could do wonders for the offense. I assume that the Jags are ready to key in on our next player to watch in the run game. Breaking some tendencies early in the contest, though, could lead to smoother sailing for Allen and the offense in general. If Allen plays the way he’s capable, the Bills will be fine offensively.
RB James Cook III
Part of the reason Cook has been so dangerous over the last two seasons is that, no matter how talented he is, teams still need to ensure that No. 17 doesn’t beat them in order to beat the Bills. This season, though, I’d argue that Buffalo’s offense has almost run through Cook more than it has through Allen. In the Bills’ victories this season, Cook has averaged 5.4 yards per rush and scored 11 touchdowns. In Buffalo’s losses this season, he’s averaged just 4.62 yards per rush and scored once.
Maybe those numbers are obvious — after all, teams are less likely to run when they’re losing, so perhaps Cook’s rushing numbers are lower because of the game script. The game script, though, could also be influenced by Cook’s lack of success on the ground. More eye-opening, I think, is Cook’s usage and success as a receiver in the Bills’ victories versus their losses. In Buffalo’s wins, Cook saw 27 targets, catching 24 passes for 251 yards and two touchdowns. In their losses, he saw 13 targets, catching nine passes for just 44 yards.
When the Bills effectively incorporate Cook into the offense as a receiver, their offense is better. When they do so from under center, their offense can be downright lethal. Cook averaged 5.6 yards per rush from under center, but he averaged just four yards per carry from the shotgun. He caught far more passes out of the shotgun, though, hauling in 23 passes for 210 yards and two scores in that formation. From under center, Cook caught just 10 passes for 81 yards.
Again, if we’re talking about tendency-breakers, targeting Cook in the pass game, but doing so from a play that begins under center, has the potential to throw the Jags for a loop. Those formations scream run, and even if they pass, Buffalo rarely utilizes Cook as a pass-catcher from that grouping. All it takes is a few “zigs” when Jacksonville expects a “zag” in the early going to cause hesitation. Buffalo needs to let James Cook from all aspects of the offense.
TE Dalton Kincaid
Perhaps no single player is more important to Buffalo’s passing offense than Kincaid, who spent yet another injury-plagued campaign making plays when he was on the field, and forcing fans to long for his return when he was off it. The Bills are a completely different offense when Kincaid plays. Allen threw all 10 of his interceptions this season when Kincaid was not on the field. Buffalo averaged 30.5 points per game when Kincaid played, and that includes the 30-13 thrashing at the hands of the Miami Dolphins where Kincaid injured his hamstring. They averaged just 23 points per game when Kincaid was inactive.
If Kincaid is healthy and active, Buffalo’s offense is dangerous. Factor in what appears to be better chemistry with an actual field-stretcher in Brandin Cooks, the emergence of Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis as viable options, and Khalil Shakir’s continued reliability, and the Bills’ passing offense still has some potential to grow. Is it a good thing that we’re talking about a passing attack’s potential in the lead up to the wild card round of the playoffs? No, no it is not. However, it’s clear that Kincaid’s presence does wonders for the passing attack.
With Kincaid on the field, teams can’t just double Shakir in the middle. It makes their multiple tight end sets more dangerous, because as good as Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes have been, neither of them can stretch the seam like Kincaid. Complicating matters a bit is that the strength of Jacksonville’s pass defense seems to reside in the middle, as safety Antonio Johnson and linebacker Devin Lloyd have five interceptions apiece. Slot corner Jarrian Jones has three interceptions.
The Bills can’t be afraid to attack that area of the field, but they also can’t be afraid to move Kincaid around to create plus matchups for him. Using misdirection via play-action and flooding zones to help create space and mismatches is going to be essential this weekend. Ensuring that Kincaid sees plenty of targets is a necessity, as well.
DE Joey Bosa
Alright, big fella. This is why the Bills signed you to this contract. The team needed a closer on the defensive edge, and they signed Bosa to be that guy. Early on in the 2025 campaign, the returns were incredible. In September alone, Bosa had two sacks, four quarterback hits, and four forced fumbles. He seemed to be headed towards a fantastic year.
Then, as has happened so many times in his career — and as happened to so many Bills this year — Bosa suffered an injury that brought his production crashing back down to earth. Bosa suffered a wrist injury that led him to wear a club on his wrist and hand for weeks. Then, later in the year, he suffered a hamstring issue that lingered throughout the last month or so. While Bosa had just five sacks, he led the NFL with five forced fumbles on the season. He had 16 quarterback hits, his highest total since 2021. He had nine tackles for loss, his highest total since 2020.
Between Bosa and Greg Rousseau, someone has to make a play and make quarterback Trevor Lawrence antsy in the pocket. Lawrence is an elite passer, so if the Bills can’t generate pressure with their front four, he’s going to pick them apart. Bosa is a tough mark for any offensive lineman, and the Bills have done a nice job generating pressure through simulated blitzes, overloads, and stunts of late. Bosa has even been used as a spy, dropping in coverage on some looks. That’s not how he makes his money, though. A strip-sack of Lawrence could be the play that propels the Bills to the next round of the playoffs. Bosa needs to come up big on Sunday.
CB Taron Johnson
Jacksonville’s offense, like its defense, is very strong in the middle of the field. Wide receiver Parker Washington has benefited from the acquisition of Jakobi Meyers, but the truth of the matter is that both wideouts are excellent in the middle of the field. Johnson is likely to be lined up across from Washington often in man-to-man situations, and he’ll likely be part of the bracket defenders zoning him off in those looks, as well.
Cam Lewis will see time in sub packages, and Jordan Hancock may even see some reps where he’ll need to pick up one of the Jaguars’ top two targets. Some of what the Bills can do may be controlled by safety Jordan Poyer’s health and availability, as well, as he works his way back from a hamstring injury.
If Johnson plays like the 2023 Second-Team All-Pro version of himself, the Bills will be in good shape. If Johnson plays more like the guy who allowed a 94.7 quarterback rating and 10 yards per completion like he did this season, it could be a long day for the Bills’ defense. Johnson versus Washington, Meyers, or even tight end Brenton Strange is going to play a pivotal role in the outcome of Sunday’s game.
