For some, the MLB Trade Deadline can be one of the most exciting and unpredictable times of the year. It presents an opportunity for all 30 teams to improve their chances to win now or in the future. For others, it can be a daunting, tedious, repetitive grind of information that may or may not come to fruition. The Viva El Birdos comment section famously has evoked it’s displeasure with the constant trade talk of a former individual who created content for us with soup recipes of all things! So,
I thought, what a funny way to both have a reasonable conversation around the upcoming trade deadline and give a hat tip and wink at the comment section.
So, if we are to create Trade Deadline Soup, we need a recipe to follow!
The 2024 Detroit Tigers finished the season at 86-76 as the final Wild Card team into the playoffs. They swept the Houston Astros in the AL Wild Card round before being eliminated in the ALDS by the Cleveland Guardians. This seems like a plausible best-case scenario for the 2026 Cardinals team that has surprised just about every corner of the baseball world this season. The 2024 Tigers sold 4 players at the players at the deadline; old friend Jack Flaherty was traded to the Dodgers, OF Mark Canha was traded to the Giants, another old friend C Carson Kelly and LHP Andrew Chafin were both traded to the Texas Rangers.
The Tigers acquired power-hitting C/1B prospect Thayron Liranzo and MLB SS Trey Sweeney, Minor league RP Eric Silva, RHP Joseph Montalvo, and C Liam Hicks.
The Cardinals could follow this “recipe” by trading impending FA Dustin May, OF Lars Nootbaar, C Pedro Pages/Jimmy Crooks, and RP JoJo Romero/Ryne Stanek. I’m slightly more optimistic about the Cardinals’ chances to get better upside in return than the Tigers were able to, given that Nootbaar and the Catchers have control remaining beyond this season.
Reinforcements for St. Louis are ready to backfill the roster if President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom chooses to execute this strategy. LHP Quinn Matthews has been on a HEATER at Memphis over the last month plus, Hunter Dobbins has already shown an ability to get big league hitters out, Memphis OF Joshua Baez has been making Triple-A pitching pay all season with his thump and prodigious right handed power, Catcher Leonardo Bernal has been a steady force behind the plate with no glaring flaws in his game as a switch hitting Catcher with a minor league gold glove to his name to boot. LHP Brycen Mautz and RHP’s Hancel Rincon and Cade Winquest offer upside out of the pen. As with the Jack Flaherty trade as the example above, don’t discount the Cardinals’ ability to get MLB-ready talent in return.
The biggest question on the roster would be what to do with All-Star Closer Riley O’Brien, and has been for this topic for some time now. The return would have to be overwhelming, but, at 31 years old, a serious case could be made that this is peak value for O’Brien, and with reliever volatility, there is no guarantee he ever performs at this level again, so the opportunity to maximize on the asset would appear to be now, despite the remaining 4 years of control. According to MLB.com, as many as 7 teams are in the primary pursuit of relief help. The Orioles, Twins, Mariners, Rangers, Nationals, Phillies, and Pirates. Among those teams exist a plethora of exciting prospect talent that the Cardinals could use to really set themselves up as they appear on the cliff’s edge of perennial contention once more.
But the approach to this year’s deadline has the potential to be more complex than we’ve seen in St. Louis. Cardinals President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom has a history of a hybrid approach to the deadline where he both buys and sells. I do believe that there could be an opportunity to add a young controllable reliever, and there are teams on the West Coast that are defined sellers that could contribute to what has evolved as the Cardinals’ biggest, most glaring weakness. Since May 1st, the Cardinals’ bullpen ranks 20th in FIP (4.26), 17th in Win Probability Added (WPA) at 0.89, and 23rd in K% at 20.5%. Those are the 3 primary stats that I look at when trying to evaluate the effectiveness of relievers. How would they perform in a defensive neutral environment? Do they positively contribute to their team’s ability to win? Do they have the capability to get a strikeout when a ball in play could dramatically swing win probability in high-leverage situations?
As I’m prone to do, I have 3 names to watch that could fit as pieces that could contribute to the next winning Cardinals team.
RHP Ryan Zeferjahn – Los Angeles Angels
The Angels ascended closer Ryan Zeferjahn since June 1st; in his last 20.1 IP has a 3.30 FIP, 40.0 K%, and +0.99 WPA. Zeferjahn comes with 5 additional years of control and 3 options remaining, and won’t be a free agent until 2031. It’s a 5-pitch mix for the Halo righty: Sweeper, 4-Seam, Sinker, Slider, Curveball. 34% Whiff rate and .160 xBA (expected batting average) are both elite performance markers. I won’t speculate on cost because it’s so hard to be predictive of what value they have internally on an emerging closer on the verge of entering a true long-term rebuild, assuming John Mozeliak can effectively persuade Arte Moreno that the good of the long-term health of the Angels organization is to take a step back, sell, and build up their pipeline.
RHP Elvis Alvarado – Athletics
Another young emerging back-end option on the West Coast, Elvis Alvarado is 6’6 253 lbs, a true mountain of a man. He throws that classic 100 MPH heat we’ve come to expect from late-inning relievers, with 5 inches above-average arm-side run. Alvarado also throws a slider and a sinker and a very scantily used Splitter. The 5.14 FIP is not all that encouraging, though the xFIP is 3.54, but that’s probably me cherry-picking, so do with that what you will. 30.4 K% on the season gets us tethered back to why he is so intriguing, and the win probability added of -0.77 isn’t all that encouraging, but also taking into account that it’s likely a combination of poor defense and ball park effects of a minor league stadium working against him, I’m willing to look past some of those struggles and would be fascinated with getting him in St. Louis, much like the George Soriano situation from the spring, to see what this big league pitching staff and development staff can get out of this really encouraging ball of clay. You have essentially 6 years of control with Alvarado, only 2 option years remaining, and Alvarado is already 27, so the player acquisition cost for Alvarado would likely be relatively low, but presents exciting upside.
LHP Erik Miller – San Francisco Giants
This one admittedly is the most far-fetched; however, there likely wouldnt be a more impactful and immediate boost to the Cardinals bullpen than Erik Miller. It’s a 4-pitch mix, primarily Sinker/Slider, which he throws about 85% of the time. He will mix in a 4-Seam and Changeup against right-handed hitters. At 6’5 269 lbs, another gigantic human, I guess, emerging closers is the true theme of these guys, as well. 32.3 k%, 3.42 FIP, and a +0.10 WPA. Miller comes with 4 additional years of control and would be the true lefty weapon the bullpen is missing to pair with Riley O’Brien at the back end of games to give them a legitimate back end of games that would create heartburn for the opposition who would have the misfortune of facing them on any given night. This cost would likely be for players that the Cardinals wouldnt want to part with. More of a dream than a reality, I surmise, but Miller is 100% the ideal trade acquisition for the Cardinals at the 2026 deadline.
Ultimately, the Cardinals’ roster has 2 weeks to make its case not to engage in a significant sell-off. Things have been trending in the wrong direction for some time now, and the NL Wild Card race has muddied itself to the point that “clear and convincing evidence” against following through on the initial plan coming into the season becomes harder and harder to justify. That’s not to suggest that a Cardinals team that has been spiteful in the face of adversity wouldnt be capable of sneaking their way into the final spot even if they sell off short-term players and promote from within more exciting upside talent from this percolating Cardinals farm system. Key ingredients are missing from this recipe before it takes its final and most flavorful form of “deadline soup.” The Cardinals are running out of time, and Chef Bloom is ready to cook. What comes to boil could still be anyone’s guess, but our appetites for answers continue to increase with each passing day. I, for one, with spoon and bowl in hand, am ready to eat it up!
Let me know in the comments your thoughts on the direction you think the Cardinals will go. Who would you like to see them acquire? Who would you try to move out to try and extract value from? I’m eager to see where everyone’s palate for change is driving their craving!
-Thanks for reading
