Kyler Murray’s first pass as a member of the Minnesota Vikings was a hail mary thrown under pressure to a double-covered Jauan Jennings. Not surprisingly, it was intercepted. That was on a second-down with less than a minute elapsed in the first quarter of a 0-0 game. A few offensive plays later, he was knocked out on a scramble which caused him to miss the rest of that game and the next one.
Those two plays encapsulated most of the trials and tribulations of Kyler Murray over his seven years in Arizona:
hero ball and injuries. Hero ball was ingrained to some degree by the Air Raid scheme Murray ran in college and his early years in Arizona, but also to some degree by necessity – playing for a team that frequently lacked a capable defense and forced to come back from deficits or win shootouts. Injuries happened on Murray’s scrambles, although they were typically non-contact injuries.
A More Conservative Kyler Murray
But one can surmise, based on Murray’s week one performance, the strengths of this 2026 Vikings team and Murray’s subsequent performance, that there was a conversation between Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell and Murray before he returned that might have gone something like this:
KOC: Kyler, now that you’re back on the field, let me remind you of a couple things. First, since I’ve been head coach, we’ve won at least 13 games in seasons when we’ve had a healthy starting quarterback. And we win 90% of the games when we tie or win the turnover battle.
Kyler: Okay, I get where you’re going with this.
KOC: Good. We don’t need you to play hero ball. Just take what the defense gives you. Scrambling is okay when there’s nothing available, but we’re not looking to make that a big part of the offense. Working from the pocket and being on schedule is what we’re after. But when you do scramble, avoid contact and slide. We don’t want the risk of you getting hurt trying to get an extra yard or two. Throwaways are fine too when there’s nothing there.
Kyler: Got it.
KOC: Don’t forget, you’ve got a defense you can lean on here- I know that’s something you haven’t had as much in the past.
Kyler: thanks Coach- that makes my job a lot easier.
Since Murray has come back after week one, he’s been more conservative. He’s been careful with the football- no turnover-worthy plays according to PFF- and has been more judicious with his scrambling- avoiding contact and sliding the few times he did scramble. There’s also been a couple times he’s wound up to throw into a tight window but thought better of it.
That’s not to say he’s avoided all tight window throws or hasn’t taken some shots downfield- he has- but it’s been in the context of taking what the defense gives him rather than forcing a throw into double coverage.
Getting Acclimated?
Still, there have been several instances where rhythm or timing has been a bit off, causing Murray to miss a throwing window or the throw to be off the mark. Murray has also shown some rust, particularly in his first full game against the Bucs, when his accuracy (adjusted completion percentage) was just 66.7% – well below his career average- and his average time to throw was 3.35 seconds- well over his career average.
But in the Dolphins game, Murray’s average time to throw fell to 3.07 seconds- still above his career average but an improvement over the previous week. And his accuracy jumped to 90.6%, albeit on a shorter depth of target, as the Dolphins focused on taking away the deeper part of the field with their coverage – probably after seeing the deep shots Murray had to Jordan Addison the previous week. Murray also seemed to get into a bit of a rhythm late in the Dolphins game, developing a rapport with TJ Hockenson that should serve him well down the line.
Murray now ranks 5th in adjusted completion percentage and 4th in turnover-worthy play rate on the season.
Still, the Vikings offense is hardly hitting on all cylinders after four games, as it still ranks near the bottom of the league in most major metrics.
Outlook for the Vikings Offense
A month into the season, Kyler Murray and Justin Jefferson have been on the field together for just 17 plays. Clearly having Carson Wentz play two games at quarterback while Justin Jefferson missed all but one drive of Kyler Murray’s last two starts has had an impact on the Vikings offense. Not to mention Jordan Mason being out the last three games. All of these injuries has made just about everything more difficult for the offense and it has shown. Additionally, Murray’s acclimation process was delayed by the two games he missed.
But going forward, there is reason for optimism and improvement.
Return of Justin Jefferson. The return of Jefferson, which could be this Sunday, is important not simply because of his production, but because his presence makes it more difficult to defend the rest of the Vikings offense.
Return of Jordan Mason. Mason will return after the bye-week and he’s the Vikings best back. He’ll also take the load off of Aaron Jones, who’s done reasonably well in Mason’s absence but having Mason back will improve the Vikings ground game.
Kyler Murray continuing to acclimate to the Vikings offense. It’s only been two games, but we’re starting to see Kyler Murray get a little more comfortable and acclimated to the Vikings offense and develop rapport with his receivers, most recently TJ Hockenson. We’ve only seen a couple passes from Murray to Jefferson, but Murray started working on his rapport with Jefferson in training camp so that might be further along despite the lack of playing time together. His rapport with Addison isn’t quite there yet, despite some key receptions. There have been some other instances where the opportunity was there but the timing was off. More reps will help across the board. It’s still very early.
Next Opponents Lack Strong Defense. The Vikings offense will have the opportunity to gel against opponents over the next four games that rank in the bottom half in terms of pass defense DVOA, which is helpful. The Saints, Colts, Lions, and Bills all rank in the mid-20s in pass defense DVOA. The Saints, Colts, and Lions also rank in the bottom six in run defense DVOA. The Bills rank 17th.
The loss of Josh Oliver and now Donovan Jackson for the season are significant ones, but Joe Huber looks like he can fill in without a big drop off in production. It looks like the Vikings may replace Oliver in part with an extra lineman (Caleb Tiernan) but Gavin Bartholomew and Max Bredeson could see more snaps as well.
Jauan Jennings looks like a bad fit now. Before the season started, the acquisition of Jauan Jennings seemed like a perfect fit for what the Vikings wanted to do offensively. He had been a big, tough receiver for the 49ers who could block, move the chains catching underneath passes and make contested catches in the end zone. He’s done none of that so far. Part of the problem is that Kevin O’Connell has him running a different set of routes that he’s not good at. Jennings is not an athletic receiver or a good detailed route runner. He’s more of a tight end in that respect. He can run shallow crossers, slants, stops, and flat routes and make contested catches with his size. But he’s running downfield routes now and not gaining separation- as expected. Worse, he’s the lowest graded run blocker on the team so far this season according to PFF. At this point, Tai Felton or Myles Price look like better WR3 options. Price has the third best run blocking grade on the team, albeit on just 15 reps. Maybe Jennings can be salvaged, or maybe he will be replaced, but there is an opportunity for improvement at WR3 that could help the offense moving forward.
Bottom Line
It’s been a slow start for the Vikings offense for a variety of reasons discussed, but it’s reasonable to expect gradual improvement for the Vikings offense in the coming weeks with the return of some key players and Kyler Murray continuing to get more acclimated and comfortable running the offense. It takes time to build rapport with receivers and get the rhythm and timing down and that will be a continuing process the rest of the season. There will also be the ongoing effort to learn what plays work best with this edition of O’Connell’s offense. Hopefully that will include more of the innovative run play designs we were led to expect from Frank Smith given what he did in Miami as OC under Mike McDaniel.
Stay tuned.
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