Well, it looks like we’re doing this again.
For the third time in five seasons, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies will be facing off in the Postseason. You don’t need me to tell you how the past two series went but if you’re dwelling on that, I’d advise you not to. Both managers have changed, both teams have a new look when compared to those two series and Philadelphia’s home crowd and/or ballpark won’t play a factor in this series since every game will be taking place in Cobb County.
So
while this is a familiar Postseason foe, I think we’re all looking forward to a different Postseason result this time around. Atlanta should also benefit from having been able to prepare for this series for a solid week. The Phillies could’ve had a similar amount of preparation time but they instead left it all the way until Game 162 in order to clinch their spot in the Postseason. Depending on how you feel, it’s either a blessing or a curse that the Phillies will be going out of the frying pan of the regular season and into the fire of the Postseason without much rest or preparation.
With that being said, I’d imagine that the Phillies certainly would’ve preferred being able to set up for the Postseason since now they’re having to strain a bit in order to get things set up the way that they’d like for this series against the Braves. Let’s take a look at how the Phillies are shaping up for this series, what to watch out for and what my personal outlook is for this particular series.
Starting Pitching
As far as starters go, the Braves will have the advantage here largely because of the fact that the Phillies had to expend a a lot of resources just to even make it into the Postseason. Cristopher Sánchez had to start this past Friday, Aaron Nola started on just two days rest on Saturday (and wasn’t particularly effective) and Zack Wheeler was forced to go on Sunday, so Sánchez would likely be the Game 2 starter and if Wheeler shows up (likely Game 3, if necessary) then he’ll be pitching on short rest. Jesús Luzardo has essentially been rushed back from the shoulder inflammation that he’d been dealing with for September and if he does pitch, it could be in a short burst rather than any type of extended start.
Depending on how Luzardo feels, he might be the Game 1 starter. If it’s more of an opener-type deal then Andrew Painter could get the bulk of those innings for Game 1. Either way, it’s certainly not an ideal situation for Philadelphia coming into a three-game series against the Braves.
Sánchez has been solid over the past month or so but the Braves proved that they can score runs on him, so that wouldn’t be an impossible task if they have to face him. Luzardo utterly dominated Atlanta in his last outing against the Braves but again, he’s coming off of an injury and may not be as effective in his first appearance back. Nola just might be exhausted after having pitched more often than usual over the course of this past week. Painter has certainly been tricky for the Braves to deal with so far but again, it’s not an impossible task to score runs off of him.
With all of that being said, Wheeler has always been tough on the Braves and I’d imagine that one less day of rest wouldn’t be enough to throw him off. Outside of that, it really feels like the Braves are catching the Phillies in a vulnerable spot as far as their starting pitching goes. That’s not to say that Philadephia’s just going to be serving up meatballs for the Braves to feast upon but there’s definitely a scenario where the Braves can find themselves getting into Philly’s bullpen early and that could reap some benefits for Atlanta. However, if this rotation performs as expected and the Braves continue to struggle at the plate early on in games (Atlanta has only hit .242/.296/.383 in the first six innings of games this year, good for just a .298 wOBA an 86 wRC+, which is the second-worst mark in baseball so far), then they’re probably going to need some more late heroics in order to pull something off.
Bullpen
Philadelphia’s bullpen also has some questions heading into this series. Jhoan Duran is ready to go and he’ll likely be very tough to deal with if he does enter the game but outside of that, there’s nobody who’s particularly imposing in this relief corps. Jonathan Bowlan willbe on the roster but there’s a question of how effective that he’ll be since he’s been dealing with a groin strain here in the latter portion of September and he hasn’t pitched since September 17. If he does turn out to be healthy and effective then Atlanta will have a tough challenge on their hands but if not, Philadelphia’s bullpen depth will be put to the test during this series.
Don Mattingly has come to trust rookie hurler Alex McFarlane out of the bullpen here in the second half of the season and for the most part, he’s been very effective. With that being said, the Braves will be coming into this game having tagged McFarlane with his worst appearance of the season back on September 6, which is when they got him for three runs off of three hits — including that infamous homer from Ronald Acuña Jr. that set off furiously-goofy debates about how long a home run trot should be. Tim Mayza has been relatively reliable for them so far and the Phillies will also be hoping that new acquisition José Urquidy can deliver.
Still, there is a lot of uncertainty about whether or not the Phillies can get to Duran without stepping on a landmine. José Alvarado has always had his fair share of adventures, so there’s another guy who could be tricky for the Braves to deal with but they’ve also had success against him in the past. This isn’t a bad bullpen by any means but it’s also not one to be feared, either — especially considering that in the converse of their early -inning struggles, the Braves have hit .250/.319/.437 with a .329 wOBA and 107 wRC+ across the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings this season. If the Braves are going to put runs on the board, this’ll likely be their best chance to do it against the relief portion of Philadelphia’s pitching staff.
Offense
You have to respect a lineup that still has Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber lurking in it. They’ve done enough damage to the Braves in the past that it would be foolish to imagine that they wouldn’t be dangerous. Schwarber has definitely enjoyed his time hitting against the Braves this season and Harper has shown that he can turn the switch on at any given moment. It really wouldn’t be shocking if those two found it in them to send some more torment towards Atlanta’s way.
With that being said, those two haven’t exactly been tearing it up in the short term coming into the Postseason. If anything, the Phillies have been relying on guys like Derek Hill, Alec Bohm and Edmundo Sosa to carry them in the Postseason. Perhaps that explains a lot about why it took them all 162 games to lock down a Postseason spot but either way, those guys could be very tricky to deal with in this series. Hill already proved in this ballpark how dangerous he could be after he hit a bases-clearing double off of Chris Sale during that fateful series not too long ago. The Postseason is full of stories of unsung heroes causing trauma and grief for opponents so that’s definitely something to watch out for.
Still, this isn’t exactly the deep and dangerous Phillies lineup that the Braves had to deal with in both 2022 and 2023 when Philadelphia bounced Atlanta out of the Postseason on two consecutive occasions. Trea Turner has had a down season, Bryson Stott and Bryan De La Cruz have both slowed down recently, Brandon Marsh and Justin Crawford haven’t really been tearing it up on a consistent basis and J.T. Realmuto’s production has fallen off of a cliff. Luis Arraez has usually been a thorn in Atlanta’s side but if he plays, he’ll be coming off of a spraing ankle and to be honest, I wouldn’t expect him to play. Over the course of the entire 2026 season and up until Game 162, the Phillies were tied with the Reds and Rockies for the lowest wRC+ in all of baseball (91) and that number has only gone up slightly (94) since August 1.
I wish I could say that the Braves have the clear advantage here but Atlanta has only produced 91 wRC+ as a team since August 1 and it’s only slightly better for the Braves when you extrapolate through to the rest of the season (98 wRC+). Someone’s going to have to get a big hit and some point and hopefully Atlanta’s deeper lineup will be able to get the job done with the home field advantage.
Defense/Base Running
Well, this one is pretty clear-cut. The Braves will be heading into the Postseason having posted a Top-5 defense in all of baseball according to OAA (22) and DRS (63). Once the Phillies acquired Luis Arraez, they basically decided to go all-in on offense while hoping that nothing disastrous happens out in the field. Considering that Philadelphia’s OAA for the season has been -14 and their DRS is all the way down at -43, the Braves would seem to be much less likely to give away extra outs. That’s huge in a such a short-sample size as any given Postseason series and Atlanta’s advantage on defense really could come in handy if these games end up being extremely close.
With that being said, the Phillies have done a better job running the bases when compared to Atlanta. This was a point of emphasis for the Braves heading into the season and unfortunately, things haven’t really changed for the better over the course of the season. The Braves are sitting on -4 Baserunning runs according to Baseball Savant, while the Phillies have a positive value of 9 Baserunning Runs so far this season — good for the third-best mark in baseball. Both teams are in the same neighborhood when it comes to preventing stolen bases but it’s pretty clear that Atlanta’s probably going to have the tougher task of preventing the Phillies from running wild on the basepaths.
Overall Outlook
I’m going to say that Atlanta’s home field advantage is going to be huge in this series. While Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been particularly great across the board so far this season, they’ve produced at a very solid level at home, to the tune of a .259/.321/.428 collective slash line along with .327 wOBA and 106 wRC+. Ronald Acuña Jr. has started to heat up recently, Michael Harris II has been a very consistent hitter so far, Matt Olson has had himself another great year and hopefully Drake Baldwin and Mauricio Dubón will both rise to the occasion as well.
On top of that, the Braves will also have the advantage of having a more reliable bullpen and being pretty well set up for the first two games of the series. Chris Sale and Tyler Mahle will be getting the ball for Game 1 and 2 and we’ve known that for a while now, compared to the situation that the Phillies have been dealing with. If both Sale and Mahle perform as advertised then you have to like their chances when it comes to turning things over to this particular bullpen late in the game.
Philadelphia may have expended too many resources and too much energy just to get across the finish line in the NL Wild Card race and the Braves will have to take advantage of that. The neutral fan in me believes that the Braves have the edge and of course the objective fan in me believes that the Braves are going to pull this off as well. With that being said, this is a weird sport, this is a weird team and these two teams are so familiar that anything could be on the table as far as results go.
With that being said, you play all of these games to get home field advantage for a reason and I feel like that could make all the difference in the world for the Braves. Atlanta won the overall season series and went 4-2 against Philadelphia in Cobb County. All the Braves need are two more wins and they’ll be getting on a plane to Los Angeles. We’ll see what happens.
Game 1: Tuesday, September 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET
Game 2: Wednesday, September 30 at 2:00 p.m ET
Game 3 (if neccessary): Thursday, October 1 at TBD (2:00 p.m. ET or 8:00 p.m. ET)
All games televised on NBC and streamed on Peacock
All games will be on ESPN Radio and the Braves Radio Network (680 The Fan/93.7 FM)
