Another week, another win for the Hawkeyes, who have continued their upward trajectory over the last month. Iowa has won three in a row, including a pair of dominating performances against rivals Wisconsin
and Minnesota. The Hawkeyes won those two matchups by a combined scored of 78-3 with the home win over once-#2 Penn State by a point wedged in the middle.
The run is driven by strong improvements in all facets. The defense is rounding into form as yet another incredible group under DC Phil Parker. It was a bit of a slow start with several question marks, but Iowa now finds themselves inside the top-10 nationally in virtually every defensive metric. Most notably, the Hawkeyes are 2nd nationally in total defense allowing just 234.9 yards per game. They’re 8th in passing defense at 151 yards per game, 4th in rushing defense giving up 83.9 yards per game and 6th in yards per play at 4.01.
But at the end of the day, games are won and lost with points, not yards. Phil Parker’s group is 4th nationally in scoring defense giving up just 12.38 points per game and are 10th in scoring defense per play at 0.224 points per play allowed.
And while the #BallHawks started slow, they now find themselves 35th nationally in takeaways. That’s been a major contributor over the three-game winning streak post-Indiana loss with Iowa 8th nationally in takeaways over that span.
Impressive as the defensive numbers are through eight games, they’re really on par with what we have come to expect out of the Hawkeyes over the last 20 years. Where things look different lately is the defense not being asked to do it all. Instead, the Hawkeyes find themselves among the nation’s best in both defensive AND offensive efficiency with just four games remaining.
Just two years removed from the drive to 325 where Iowa fully embraced the national punch line surrounding it’s offense, the Hawkeyes are now more than proficient. They’re 52nd nationally in scoring offense, averaging 31.2 offensive points per game.
That’s been fueled by OC Tim Lester’s emphasis on the one thing that matters: points on the board. When he first started making the media rounds two years ago, Lest talked about the need for improvement on third down conversions, RedZone efficiency and prioritizing the stat that actually wins games vs the ones that might get social media buzz.
While the total offensive numbers haven’t been eye-popping and the passing offense is still in need of improvement, all those focus areas have been a revelation and critical to Iowa’s surge, particularly over the last month.
Iowa is now 13th nationally in RedZone efficiency with 94.1% of RedZone drives resulting in points and 68% resulting in a touchdown. They’re 35th in 3rd down conversion rate at 45.2% and perhaps most importantly, they’re ranked 16th in the nation in points per play at 0.498. That’s good for 4th in the Big Ten behind just USC (0.625), Indiana (0.587) and Oregon (0.577).
Over that last three game stretch where things seem to really be coming together? Iowa is 3rd in the nation in points per play at 0.617 behind just Texas A&M (0.656) and Indiana (0.62). Put simply, they’re defense has been stifling and when the offense has the ball, they’ve become both proficient and efficient in putting points on the board.
Thats’s to say nothing of the special teams, which have long been a staple, but have really surged with reigning Big Ten Return Man of the Year Kaden Wetjen now up to three return TDs on the season.
The result has been real, national buzz about this Iowa team not just as being solid, but as a potential College Football Playoff dark horse.
If you only consume football info from the likes of ESPNo only pay attention to the AP and Coaches polls, this graphic may seem laughable. But while those polls and media coverage contain inherent bias, the projection here is just that: a projection of where Iowa will fall when the College Football Playoff committee releases their first rankings on. Tuesday, November 4th.
There’s a very real likelihood Iowa will be among those 25 teams ranked by the CFP committee and that’s because Iowa is a contender for one of those coveted playoff spots.
After the three game winning streak, the Hawkeyes are now +1500 to make the College Football Playoff, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. That’s 6th among Big Ten teams, behind Ohio State (OFF), Indiana -8000, Oregon -300, USC +710 and Michigan at +1040, and just ahead of Washington at +1600.
After the bye, Iowa plays host to #6 Oregon. With a win, the Hawkeyes will surely vault into not just the top-25, but likely the top-15. They’ll go from playoff dark horse to darling overnight.
The job certainly wouldn’t be done with a win against the Ducks. Iowa travels west to #23 USC the following week and would need to run the table and finish 10-2 to have a real shot at the playoff. But it is a real shot.
It’s a testament to Tim Lester, Phil Parker and every player in the locker room to have that reality. And it’s time to start talking to your kids about the Iowa Hawkeyes.
