Jr. has a lot going on this week so I’m lending a hand. I hope you weren’t looking for any GoT references or stories about writer’s block, because you’re not getting any. I will, however, make an attempt to put my cynicism on the shelf for the time being and try to mirror his more optimistic outlook, it might even be fun.
On Saturday, the Golden Flecks will make the 275 mile trek down the Avenue of the Saints to Iowa City to take on your Iowa Hawkeyes within the friendly confines of Kinnick Stadium.
They bring a 5-2 (3-1) record that mirrors Iowa’s, though the teams they’ve lost to may not be of the same quality (and the same could be said for the teams they’ve beaten). The Gophers are fresh off a 24-6 drubbing of the Bugeaters last Saturday in Huntington Bank Stadium, while the Hawkeyes are coming off an emotional win over the Franklin/Allar-less Penn State Nittany Lions.
The sharps in the desert (at the time of writing) have a Hawkeye victory written all over this one with Iowa sitting at -8.5 and the O/U sitting between 38.5-39.5, leaving us with an implied score of Iowa 24 – Minnesota 14.5. Personally, I think that’s a bit low given that Iowa is averaging nearly 30 per game and Minnesota’s run defense is giving up 175.5 ypg on the ground in B18 play, which plays right into Iowa’s game plan.
THE OFFENSE
As mentioned above the Minnesota rush defense (in B18 play) is giving up 175+ ypg on the ground, which would put their rushing defense at 108 (just slightly better than Rutgers, slightly worse than Troy). As fortune would have it, Iowa is averaging nearly 193 ypg on the ground (161.75 in B18 play), so that plays nicely in our favor. Yeah, the passing game still needs some work, but with Mark Gronowski and the full stable of RBs (Jaz is back baby) ready to run behind one of the best OLines in the country right now, I’ll take those odds. This game may set the forward pass back further than Kirk Ferentz ever dreamed possible. I mean Iowa threw two, yes TWO, passes in the second half against Penn State and still came back from an 11 point deficit to win. The first person to figure when the last time Iowa threw two passes in a half of football wins, well, fake internet points I guess.
THE BENCH-O-METER – CURRENT STATUS: BRAD BANKS LEADING 10-1 IOWA INTO THE METRODOME WITH A TRIP TO THE ROSE BOWL ON THE LINE
Last Week’s Requirements: 130 yds passing, 30 yds rushing, 1 passing TD, no INTs
Mark Gronowski may not have had his best game through the air against Penn State, but his 130 yards rushing and two TDs (not to mention his 38 yard draw up the middle and a crazy good fake on a bootleg to seal the win) more than made up for it. That being said, he accounted for 198 yards from scrimmage, 2 TDs (I’m not blaming him for the pick, Gill has to catch that ball), and the game clinching 3rd down conversion. This team, and especially this OLine, is hitting their stride, right in time to make sure that the Bacon stays in Iowa City.
If Iowa can establish the run early (and there’s every indication that they should be able to) and Iowa’s receivers can figure out how to catch balls, this could be the first game where we see a, mostly healthy, Gronowski put up decent numbers on both sides of the ball. With every RB at his disposal, a healthy RVZ, and a host of new ways to get the ball into Kaden Wetjen’s hands, the potential for an offensive explosion against a Golden Gophers D, that gave up 456 total yards of offense to Purdue, is pretty high.
Required Stats: Doesn’t matter, if he can run, he’s the starter and with Oregon coming to town after the second bye
Barring something serious, this is fully Mark Gronowski’s team, everything else is academic.
THE DEFENSE
The Gophers offense is also not performing up to their shiny-domed leaders standards so far this season, at lesat not on the ground. Goldie is notching just 122.9 ypg so far this year but just 79.75 ypg in B18 play. Rutgers held them under 50 yards, Ohio State under 70 yards, and Purdue (yes, that Purdue) allowed Minnesota to gain just 30 yards on 18 runs (and still managed to lose). Darius Taylor has the tools to be an elite back but has struggled to stay healthy, he’s averaging 4.5 ypc across 79 carries, but has only played in 5 of their 7 games. His backup, Fame Ijebol, has been decent as well (56, 259, 4.6), and Grant Washington flashed for 126 yards on 20 carries in his lone appearance this season, but that was back in week 2 against lowly FCS Northwestern State.
Minnesota has a capable QB in Derek Lindsay and three legit wideouts in Brockington, Smith, and Tracy, but their ground game has been a disappointment. They’re averaging 217.7 ypg through the air (200.75 in B18 play), so Drake Lindsay and crew are not to be taken for granted (they notched 325 yds and 3 TDs on Rutgers), but if Phil Parker knows you can’t run the ball, I wouldn’t bet on there being much out there beyond the short/intermediate stuff. Sure, Minny could dink and dunk a bit to keep a drive going, but I’m guessing that there will be blitzes a plenty from the LB corps on Saturday. Lindsay has been sacked, on average, at least once a game against B18 defenses, and I won’t be surprised if that average ticks up a bit next week.
Phil Parker is licking his chops at those stats. A non-mobile QB with a lackluster rushing attack and a DC who has been sending LB and DB blitzes at a rate previously unseen in the last decade? The Hawkeyes are going to be gunning for Drake Lindsay.
Minnesota on the other hand is going to be handed the Herculean task of stopping an Iowa ground game that could finish the season averaging more than 200 rushing ypg and a QB that is nearing his apex at the same time that his primary targets are finally getting healthy. I don’t envy that task, especially when the guys on the other side of the line just beat a team that has more talent at most positions than either of these teams have at any given one.
3 weeks ago I was far less confident in this team’s ability to keep Floyd right where he belongs, encased in glass in the Stu and Lenore Hansen Football Performance Center, but tonight, tonight I’m feeling pretty good about it. Beating the Golden Flecks on Saturday sets up a serious showdown with Oregon in Kinnick 2.5 weeks from now in what would, almost certainly, be the Big Noon Kickoff game for Fox and I’m here for it. Tonight I’m setting aside the cynicism and going full homer. As the man once said “At my signal, unleash hell”, and I would love mothing more than for Iowa, even if only for one night, bring back the Norm Parker ethos and show the Gophers that this defense remembers what “six seconds of hell” means.
As always, GO HAWKS!!!
