The Diamondbacks coming 40-man roster crunch

I likely needn’t rehash how the 2025 season has been an almost unending litany of injuries for the Diamondbacks. It began with the Opening Day roster, where Jordan Montgomery was already out for the season, and Kevin Ginkel was also on the IL with shoulder inflammation. We’re now into the final month. Jordan Montgomery is still out for the season… and Kevin Ginkel is back on the IL with another shoulder issue. But they’re not alone. At the time of writing, there are another seven men – all pitchers,

save Pavin Smith – on the 60-day IL for Arizona. That’s an issue. However, it’s going to become a bigger one at the end of the season.

That’s because the 60-day Injured List goes away at that point. Right now, players on it do not count against spots on the team’s 40-man roster. But on November 4, Cot’s Baseball Contracts sternly warns us, “All players on the 60-day Injured List (Major and Minor) and Full-Season Injured Lists must be reinstated.” In the case of the D-backs’, that means nine spots, almost a quarter of the current roster, must be released to make room for those on the 60-day IL. In case you’d forgotten, those wounded warriors are: Corbin Burnes, Ginkel, Tommy Henry, Justin Martinez, Cristian Mena, Christian Montes De Oca, A.J. Puk, Smith and Blake Walston.

There is a chance that one or more of these players might be let go. Tommy Henry, for example, went under the knife for Tommy John surgery in June, so is likely to be out for almost all of 2026. He’ll be approaching thirty on Opening Day 2027, has a career ERA north of five, and will be coming off the roll of the dice which is TJS. The team might decide there are better uses for the spot. Ginkel is another who may be cut, if he ends up needing surgery. But let’s take a look at the current 40-man roster, and see what fat could potentially be trimmed.

Definitely gone

• Jalen Beeks
• Anthony DeSclafani
• Zac Gallen
• James McCann

The good news is, half the problem will immediately take care of itself through natural attrition. The players above are all free agents at the end of the season. The day the 60-day IL goes away, will also be the deadline for Arizona to make a Qualifying Offer to Gallen. He then has until November 19 to accept or decline. If he accepts, I imagine a further move will be needed at that point, but we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it. As for the other three, there’s nothing to stop the team from renegotiating with the players for 2026, if they wish to do so. Again, if they need to be found a 40-man slot, that can be addressed down the line as appropriate.

Status unclear

• Nabil Crismatt
• Casey Kelly
• Ildemaro Vargas

Full disclosure time. I’m not certain what the situation is with regard to these three. They were all signed by the D-backs at some point this season. It does not appear they received long-term contracts, but none of them will have six years’ service by the end of the year: Vargas, a little over five years on Opening Day, but not signed to a major-league deal until May 28, would be closest. So are they still under team control for 2026? Or do they become free agents? If it’s the latter, then they would also be in the category above, and the problem has basically taken care of itself, with seven slots freed. But if they are under team control, then decisions need to be made…

Definitely staying

• Blaze Alexander
• Corbin Carroll
• Adrian Del Castillo
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
• Jordan Lawlar
• Jake McCarthy
• Ketel Marte
• Gabriel Moreno
• Ryne Nelson
• Geraldo Perdomo
• Brandon Pfaadt
• Eduardo Rodríguez
• Andrew Saalfrank
• Alek Thomas

There’s not much to be said here: it’s the core of the team for 2026 and beyond. This doesn’t necessarily mean they will still be here on Opening Day 2026 though. I’d not be surprised if one of McCarthy and Thomas ends up getting traded. Then again, I said the same thing at the end of 2024 too, so who knows? It’s a very solid group on the position player side. Pitching – especially relief pitching – not so much.

Probably staying

• Kyle Backhus
• Juan Burgos
• Brandyn Garcia
• Andrew Hoffmann
• Drey Jameson
• Tyler Locklear
• Juan Morillo
• Taylor Rashi
• Tim Tawa
• Ryan Thompson

And when I say “probably”, I think that each of these probably has a 90% chance or better of being retained. They all have some combination of upside, major-league experience and team control, so I’d be pretty surprised if more than one of the above players was cut. But it’s possible. Most of the players listed above rest are still pre-arb, so cost would not be a consideration. Thompson is the obvious exception, earning just shy of $3 million and entering his final year of arb. He has been merely okay this year – 107 ERA+ to date – so presuming a bump to $4 million or so, is that an okay price for an average reliever? I guess.

May be cut

• John Curtiss
• Bryce Jarvis
• Jake Woodford

Curtiss has been decent this season, but a 125 ERA+ is somewhat undone by 4.28 FIP. The reverse is true for Woodford, who has a 4.88 ERA and 3.55 FIP. But neither of them have done a great deal to be more than fungible relief arms. I like to think the team can do better in that department. As for Jarvis, after two years where his ERA was basically two runs below his FIP, it has finally caught up with him. His career FIP is still a smidge below five. Or maybe I’m just guilty of recency bias, after his terrible outing last night, looked like it might end up costing the Diamondbacks the game.

Could well be cut

• Jorge Barrosa
• Yilber Diaz
• Connor Kaiser
• Kyle Nelson
• Elvin Rodríguez
• Gus Varland

Raise your hand if you knew Varland was even on the 40-man roster. Yeah, taken off waivers from the White Sox, so potentially the very definition of “Easy come, easy go,” and the same is true for Rodríguez, who arrived yesterday. Barrosa and Kaiser also appear to be replacement level, though the former is still only 24, so there could be upside there. But given all the slots are going to be needed for pitchers, it may be those who are on the thinnest ice. Diaz’s rising star has collapsed into a black hole, with 72 BB in only 52.2 MiLB innings this year. Meanwhile, Nelson has a 9.10 ERA over 38 games for Reno, with 11 home-runs in 30.2 innings. It feels like all Kyle’s talent appears to have gone over to his namesake.

And, then…

This is just the start of the winter’s work. Further changes will definitely need to come later in the off-season, to protect eligible prospects from the Rule 5 Draft in December. Then there’s any new signings, particularly around the bullpen – room will need to be found for them as well. I think it’s safe to say that the 40-man roster on Opening Day next year is going to look radically different from the one on November 1st. I’m tempted to take a snapahot of it on that day for comparison. It will be an interesting winter.