I’ll have a more detailed look into the other four teams in the NL Central coming up soon.
But today, I simply want you to give your gut feelings about the Brewers, Reds, Pirates and Cardinals. How will
the division wind up this year?
We can get an idea of how these teams line up from the first 2026 PECOTA standings
, which were released Tuesday.PECOTA has the Cubs at about a 90-72 record, which is pretty close to the 92-70 from 2025. (Personally, I think they’re better than that.)
The Brewers are next at approximately 80-82. PECOTA has underestimated the Brewers many times in recent years. Personally, I think the Brewers are better than that, though they have traded away a couple of key players (Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin) from last year’s 97-win team.
The Pirates, who have made some noise through free-agent signings (Marcell Ozuna, Ryan O’Hearn), are listed next at 79-83. That might be a bit too optimistic, in my view.
The Reds made the postseason last year with an 83-79 record and proceeded to get swept by the Dodgers in the wild-card round. PECOTA also has them at about 79-83. The Reds should be better than that. That pitching rotation can be scary.
The Cardinals are in full rebuild mode after trading away Sonny Gray, Brendan Donovan and Willson Contreras. PECOTA has them as a 96-loss team. The Cardinals haven’t lost that many games since 1913 (!), when they lost 99. This could be a 100-loss Cardinals team.
Where do you see these teams finishing this year?
