Fresh off an impressive 80-63 win Saturday at Washington, Michigan State will look to close out Oregon and return home at 17-2 overall and 7-1 in the Big Ten.
Michigan State faced Oregon twice last year – once at the Breslin Center and again in the Big Ten tournament. MSU won both matchups but Oregon gave the Spartans some initial trouble in East Lansing. The Ducks took a 50-36 lead into the halftime break before the Spartans responded with a massive second half, outscoring the Ducks 50-24 en route
to a 12 point win. This game might be best remembered among Spartan fans as Jase Richardson’s formal introduction to the national stage as he dropped a season-high 29 points on the Ducks.
Richardson led the Spartans over Oregon again with a 17 point performance in a 74-64 Spartan victory in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament before becoming an NBA draft pick after his one-and-done season at MSU.
Oregon, however, enters this matchup with two faces familiar to the Spartans out with injury and struggling to find their way.
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Oregon Overview
The Ducks enter this game just 8-10 overall, 1-6 in the Big Ten, and losers of four straight. Their only conference win is against Maryland who just picked up their first conference win of the year on Sunday over Penn State (who still has no B1G wins).
Oregon started the year with four straight wins but the toughest opponent in that group was perhaps their rival, Oregon State. Five straight losses followed and then a 4-1 stretch preceded the current four game losing streak.
In conference, Oregon has suffered close losses to USC (82-77) and Rutgers (88-85) and fell by double digits to UCLA (74-63), Ohio State (72-62), and, most recently, Saturday to Michigan (81-71). Just prior to the loss to Michigan, the Ducks were crushed at Nebraska 90-55.
As might be expected on a team that’s 1-6 in league play, Oregon doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well. They’re hitting just 43.2% of their shots, which ranks 16th of the 18 Big Ten teams. Oregon is also a bit prone to turnovers, committing 12.7 per game – the third most in the league. Michigan State, however, is just one spot better in giving up 12.3 per game. The Spartans’ assist to turnover rate is much better though at 1:52 compared to Oregon’s 1.17.
Oregon Coaching
As it states on Oregon’s basketball page, Dana Altman is one of just three active Division 1 coaches with 28 consecutive winning seasons. The others are Bill Self and none other than Tom Izzo. Izzo’s streak is likely to continue this year while Altman’s may be in some jeopardy at this point.
Still, Altman has been in Eugene since 2010, is the winningest coach in Oregon history, and has nearly 800 career wins between stints at Marshall, Kansas State, and Creighton before Oregon.
Under Altman, Oregon has been to 10 NCAA tournaments, advanced to the 2016 Elite 8 and 2017 Final Four, and won Pac 12 titles in 2020 and 2021.
Altman was named the 2013 national coach of the year after leading the Ducks to a 28-9 record and the NCAA Sweet 16.
Oregon Rotation
At least part of Oregon’s recent struggles could be attributed to the loss of guard Jackson Shelstad who re-aggravated a pre-season injury to a tendon in his hand in the Ducks’ December 28 win against Omaha. He hasn’t played since and Oregon indicated on Saturday that he’s likely out for the season.
Oregon’s rotation took another hit when 7-foot senior center Nate Bittle suffered a foot injury in the loss at Nebraska. He was ruled out for the Michigan game on Saturday and, shortly after that game, it was announced he could miss about a month of action.
Even with two of their best players out, and in the midst of a disappointing season to date, Oregon held a two point lead against the Wolverines early in the second half and remained within striking distance the rest of the way before bowing out with the 10 point loss.
With Shelstad – and now Bittle – out, Oregon produced the following starting five in the Michigan loss:
#22 F – Devon Pryor, 6-7, JR, transfer from Texas, 3.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg
#13 F – Sean Stewart, 6-9, JR, transfer from Ohio State and Duke, 6.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg
#10 F – Kwame Evans Jr., 6-10, JR, 12.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg
#23 G – Wei Lin, 6-4, SO, 6.4 ppg, 1.6 apg
#5 G – Takai Simpkins, 6-4, SR, transfer from Elon, second season at Oregon, 12.5 ppg, 2.2 apg
Stewart, Evans, Lin, and Simpkins all saw at least 30 minutes of action against UM and each scored in double figures. Stewart led the way with 22 points on 10-14 shooting and he hit his only three point attempt – not just for the game but that triple was Stewart’s only attempt on the year.
Evans was next with 18 points against Michigan. On the year, he’s hitting nearly 52% of his shots and is a bit more of a three point threat. On average, he takes about three per game from deep and makes one.
Simpkins is the better shooter in the Ducks’ backcourt. He makes 45% of his shots overall and is decent from three at 38%. Lin has struggled so far this year though. He went just 2-12 on Saturday and, on the year, is just 34% overall and 28% from deep.
Oregon did bring five players off the bench but only one – #4 Dezdrick Lindsay – saw significant playing time with 22 minutes. Lindsay is a 6-6 senior forward who missed all of last year due to injury. Prior to that, he spent two years at the junior college level. This year, he’s averaging 5.1 points and 3.1 boards per game.
Oregon Strategy
While Oregon has had some time to adjust to life without Shelstad, it could be tough to come up with a plan of attack in just their second game without Bittle. With him out, the Ducks lose size, experience, and versatility. Bittle was averaging 16 points and nearly seven boards per game. He was shooting 47% overall and could stretch the floor by hitting 37% of his three pointers.
It will be interesting to see if Altman looks to utilize his bench more against the Spartans than he did against UM. He may have to. The Spartans, as they’ve done to several opponents this year, wore down Washington as the second half dragged on. As mentioned above, four Oregon starters are coming off heavy minutes in their last game on Saturday. It would be a tall task to ask them to repeat that effort tomorrow against the Spartans.
Keys to the game for MSU
Oregon has so far proven that won’t roll over in the face of adversity. The Spartans need to avoid the “fat and sassy” feeling, as Tom Izzo might say, after a solid win at Washington. After getting swept by the LA schools in last year’s West Coast trip, the Spartans should be motivated to get the job done this time around – especially with the schedule soon to get really tough.
It would also be really nice to again limit turnovers like the Spartans did against UW and get Jaxon Kohler back on track after an uncharacteristic rough outing in Seattle. Kohler is probably going to continue to see teams double-teaming him in the post. Sometime he seems determined to attack the double no matter what, which often leads to a turnover and frustration. It seems like knowing where the open guy is going to be in this situation certainly wouldn’t hurt MSU.
Regardless, if the Spartans can stay focused and produce a solid effort, they should have the depth and talent to overcome a depleted but resilient and well-coached Oregon team.
What do you think TOC? What are your keys to the game and will MSU return from the great Pacific Northwest with a couple of victories?
The game tips off at 9 PM Eastern (not too bad) on FS1.
