Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 19 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPNU
- Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium — Fort Worth, TX
- Spread: TCU (-19.5)
- Over/under: 56.5
- All-time series: TCU leads, 2-0
- Last meeting: TCU 42, Army 3 — September 23, 2000
- Current streak: TCU, 1 (1999-00)
Setting the scene
LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns on Sept. 23, 2000, while his future San Diego Chargers teammate Cleo Lemon was the quarterback on the opposite sideline.
It’s been 26 years since TCU and Arkansas State met on the gridiron. That was three conferences ago for the Horned Frogs, which were members of the WAC. For Arkansas State, it was the program’s final season in the 6-team Big West before realigning to the Sun Belt.
The two 1-1 schools reunite under the lights of a sold-out
Fort Worth crowd, both looking for their first first FBS victory of 2026.
Arkansas State Red Wolves outlook
Arkansas State (1-1, 0-0 Sun Belt) dropped its opener to Memphis. The Red Wolves competed for three quarters in front of a raucous crowd of over 45,000, but they eventually ran out of gas and were plagued by turnovers. Butch Jones’ team enjoyed a get-right game in Week 2 against FCS West Georgia where the turnover fortune swung back into its favor. The Red Wolves were fueled by a paired of defensive touchdowns in a 52-7 rout to get back to .500.
Arkansas State quarterback Trey Owens will return to his home state for this matchup. Owens entered the year with a lack of experience, but the 6’5” junior now has two collegiate starts under his belt. Plenty of potential was shown in the opener at Memphis where he posted 325 yards on 21-of-30 passing, but four interceptions spoiled an otherwise stellar debut. He showed much better effieicny last week, finishing 13-of-17 for 135 yards in game the Red Wolves didn’t need him to be a hero.
Owens is surrounded by one of the top receiving corps in the Sun Belt, headlined by the slippery, agile Chauncy Cobb. The 5’6” receiver nearly produced 800 yards last season as Arkansas State’s WR2. This year, he’s expected to be the focal point in the offense, already leading the Red Wolves in receiving yards and touchdowns. Receivers Hunter Summers and Jaylen Bonelli play supporting roles in the Sun Belt offense with the most returning talent from 2025.
Arkansas State lost half of its one-two running back punch prior to the year, as Devin Spencer went down with a non-contact knee injury. That elevates the other member of the tandem, Kenyon Clay, into an elevated role. So far, Clay has thrived with 99 rushing yards, 89 receiving yards, and three total touchdowns. He’ll be under the direction of former TCU quarterback Kenny Hill, who now serves as Arkansas State’s running backs coach.
The Red Wolves’ defense predictably looked stout against FCS competition, but the team must prevent the explosive plays which lost the Memphis game. Five different Tiger receivers caught a 20+ yard pass and three different rushers rattled off a 20+ yard gain, as Memphis’ offense managed 523 yards of offense. These same issues were prevalent last season when Arkansas State finished 112th in total defense — allowing the seventh-most 30+ yard pickups in the FBS.
Outside linebacker Robert Stevens III has been the star of the unit thus far, contributing 15 tackles, an interception, and a forced fumble through two games. He’ll be instrumental to slowing down a TCU team that moves best on the ground.
The defense’s best path to victory is to sustain its turnover production. So far, the unit has excelled in this facet, as only four FBS teams have more interceptions than the Red Wolves’ five. Speaking of five, Five Hamilton is a name to watch in the secondary, and the Kennesaw State transfer has acclimated to his new home with eight tackles, a pass breakup, and a pick-six.
TCU Horned Frogs outlook
TCU (1-1, 0-0 Big 12) must avoid the recurring Ireland curse. Many teams that took the Week 0 trip to Dublin never returned the same, and that list includes 2022 Northwestern, 2022 Nebraska, 2024 Florida State, and 2025 Kansas State — which all fell well below preseason expectations. The Horned Frogs needed a 63-7 demolition of FCS competition to regain their mojo after the offensive fell flat across the pond.
Perhaps no TCU player needed to see the figurative ball go in the hoop more than Jaden Craig. The Harvard transfer quarterback did not enjoy a strong debut against North Carolina in Dublin and missed several key throws in a narrow loss. However, Craig was nearly perfect in his follow-up act against Grambling, tallying 391 passing yards, four touchdowns without an interception, and showcasing some mobility to the tune of 53 yards. TCU will need a more confident Craig moving forward to prevent another offensive struggle like Week 0.
Craig may remain without his top receiver Jordan Dwyer, who has yet to play this season due to a foot injury. Without Dwyer, who recorded 730 receiving yards last year, the Horned Frogs will lean most heavily on Ed Small, who has 14 catches for 166 yards through two games. Tight end Kari Ashley also played a significant role in the receiving game last week, putting up 119 yards and two touchdowns on seven receptions.
Whether or not Dwyer is healthy, this 2026 TCU offense is strongest on the ground. The Horned Frogs have enjoyed plenty of success when calling runs to the boundary. Jeremy Payne is the Big 12’s leading rusher with 221 rushing yards, and Payne gashed North Carolina’s offense in Week 1 with 142 yards and a slew of significant gains. However, the run game has been marred by holding penalties this year, and TCU has the 21st-most penalty yards per game in the FBS, albeit a limited sample size.
The Frogs are effective in the run game, but their best position group is their defensive line. TCU retained edge rusher Paul Oyewale and defensive tackles Markis Deal and Ansel Din-Mbuh from last year’s squad, and nobody has shown the ability to consistently pass the first level against this front. The longest rush against the Horned Frogs’ defense this year is 11 yards, and neither opponent had a rusher — quarterback or running back — attain more than 36. TCU is still without defensive end Zach Chapman, and his return could make this formidable unit even better.
However, TCU gave up routine intermediate passes in the opener against North Carolina. If the defensive line didn’t win the rep right away, the Tar Heels made the Horned Frogs’ secondary pay. TCU allowed 8.3 yards per pass in that game and even surrendered 9.5 yards per pass against Grambling. Strong safety Jamel Johnson is expected to return after missing the prior game, and his presence should help the unit.
Prediction
TCU should be able to run the ball quite effectively on this Arkansas State defense, which allowed two 100-yard rushers and 335 total rushing yards against Memphis two weeks ago. Jeremy Payne was quite effective against North Carolina, and he’ll be the Horned Frogs’ top offensive player in their first home game against FBS competition this year.
Arkansas State will provide some resistance, because the Red Wolves’ passing game with Trey Owens and a capable receiving corps is their strength, while TCU hasn’t been the most sound in coverage through two games. However, Owens’ time in the pocket may not be consistent. Arkansas State’s offensive line had its struggles against a formidable Memphis front, and TCU brings one of the Big 12’s best defensive lines to rush the passer, and blitzes probably won’t be needed much to generate pressure.
Jaden Craig performs somewhere in between his first two weeks, and TCU concludes non-conference play with a victory and improves to 5-0 vs. the Sun Belt all-time.
Prediction: TCU 36, Arkansas State 21
