The Indianapolis Colts are at home to take on the Houston Texans in week 3 of the 2026 season, kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. EST.
The season has not started how the Colts would have liked. It did start fairly predictably, however. Finishing last season on a seven game losing streak and starting the season against two, multi-time MVP award winning quarterbacks, an 0-2 start, while very disappointing, was highly predictable.
Less predictable was the Houston Texans 0-2 start. The Texans also started the season
against top flight quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. However, the Texans were coming off of a 12-5 season with the NFL’s top ranked defensive unit. There was plenty of reason to believe, even if the defense took a step back, they wouldn’t give up 338 yards and 28 points per game. A season ago they gave up just over 277 yards and 17 points per game. Further while their offense has had little issue moving the ball down the field, they’ve managed to score just 18.5 points per game through their first two games. A large departure from the nearly 24 points they scored per game in 2025.
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I’m not going to tell you that as a Colts fan you shouldn’t be disappointed. Even though the losses were easy to predict, the Colts brass has set expectations high in a make or break season for nearly everyone who has an office in the West 56th street facility. But Texans fans expected their team to be legitimate AFC contenders and through two weeks they haven’t been able to keep up with two actual AFC contenders.
This week is a very rough matchup for our reeling Colts. Indy’s offense will be without Alec Pierce, the only explosive element the offense could rely on in the team’s recent past. Per NFL’s Next Gen Stats Houston’s defense has the number one ranked defensive success rate at just 34.2%. Conversely they have an explosive pass rate allowed of 26.5%, which ranks dead last in the NFL. Which means the Bills and Bengals didn’t have much success throwing the ball on a down to down basis but instead lived on deep, explosive passes. And with Alec Pierce out, I have serious concerns about who Indy will use to stretch the field, to create those downfield plays and continue to stress a Texans secondary struggling to stop the deep ball. Further Daniel Jones has only attempted 14 passes of 10+ air yards through two weeks. Indy’s passing game will not produce if they can’t find an answer downfield.
On defense things won’t get much easier for Indy. CJ Stroud is averaging almost 314 passing yards per game but the Texans offense is ranked 24th scoring touchdowns inside the redzone just 44% of the time. Meanwhile the Colts defense is ranked 18th in redzone touchdowns allowed, giving up six points on nearly 67% of their attempts. Something has to give in this game.
The only upside for Indy is that dating back to 2025 without Nico Collins (who will miss today’s game) the Texans redzone touchdown rate drops from the mid-40’s, down to just 15%. Conversely if Houston figures out a way to turn their redzone trips into points this week it will be all the more disappointing.
Ultimately, both the Colts and Texans offenses will be without their best pass catching weapons this week and both offenses have had successes and struggles through the first two weeks of the season. Houston’s defense is lightyears ahead of Indy’s but neither unit is without it’s warts. I hope I’m wrong about how this one is going to go, but this is a rough matchup for our Colts.
Prediction:
Texans: 24
Colts: 20
As always, go Colts.
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This is your week three open thread so hang out here, chat, celebrate, commiserate, and argue in the comments! Go wild (within reason)!
Go Colts!
