This weekend (Sat., Nov. 7, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will remain inside the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 124. What happens when a mediocre card loses its main event? A pair of acceptable answers would include “nothing good” or “UFC Vegas 124.” Alright, there are a handful of decent matchups hidden throughout this event, and perhaps a new prospect will emerge from the field of Wikipedia-less competition.
Let’s dig into the analysis and predictions of the five main
card fights leading up to the main event:
Strawweight: Tatiana Suarez (-185) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+165)Best Win for Suarez? Alexa Grasso For Jandiroba? Yan Xiaonan
Current Streak: Suarez has won two in a row, while Jandiroba won her last bout
X-Factor: Suarez has suffered many injuries over the years
How these two match up: This is a high-quality matchup of relevant, ranked contenders.
There was a time where Suarez was the obvious Strawweight heir-apparent, a female Khabib that was mauling former and future champions with ease. Unfortunately, illness and injury delayed her title shot for years, and she seemed to have lost a step by the time she finally met the great Zhang Weili in the cage. On the bright side, she’s since fought consistently, picked up a pair of wins, and has yet to face Mackenzie Dern.
Perhaps there’s still time for the 35-year-0ld wrestler to capture UFC gold?
Jandiroba, meanwhile, has two losses to Dern, effectively killing her momentum for the foreseeable future. Outside of those defeats, the jiu-jitsu ace has been consistently excellent, grinding down many of the division’s top contenders in recent years.
If this ends up a striking match, we’re all screwed. Thankfully, I think Suarez will play to her strengths and brave grappling with the jiu-jitsu fighter. Jandiroba is a slick grappler, but she tends to score her submissions from dominant positions, not from her back. If Suarez wants to take her down, she likely will, though minding her neck will be important.
The question here is how well Jandiroba can work to sweep from her back, and if Suarez can handle the pace of the wrestling an expert grappler for 15 minutes. Since this is only a three-round fight, Suarez really just needs to control two rounds and then avoid the submission — a reasonable task against a woman with only one tapout win in her last 10 bouts.
Prediction: Suarez via decision
Bantamweight: Davey Grant (+205) vs. Elijah Smith (+280)Best Win for Grant? Raphael Assuncao For Smith? Vince Morales
Current Streak: Grant won his last bout, while Smith is 3-0 in the UFC
X-Factor: Grant is 16 years older
How these two match up: This is best booking on the card, a high-octane veteran vs. prospect collision.
Grant is the man. The 40-year-old Englishman turned his career around in the 2020s, moving from forgotten TUF runner-up to a high-level action striker. He’s a nonstop offensive machine, hitting all levels from both stances. If the judges were competent, Grant would be the winner of six of his last seven against stiff opposition.
Smith, meanwhile, is an obvious bluechip prospect. A ball of athleticism and power, Smith has been running over opponents with huge takedowns and smooth grappling. He’s shown power on the feet as well, producing a well-rounded game even if the inexperience occasionally shows.
Look: it’s a terrible idea to bet against a 16-year age gap. You don’t need me to look up the exact statistic to convince anyone that the younger fighter wins a large majority of the time — we all know it’s true. The smart play for those intent on making money, of course, is to side with historical trends and charts and follow the data.
Fortunately, this is a prediction article written not just for our beloved gambling addicts, and my genuine opinion is that Davey Grant is significantly better than anybody Smith has ever faced in just about every aspect of MMA. Despite his age, his performances and cardio remain excellent. He’s throwing hard power shots for three rounds against top-notch opponents, and he’ll do the same here.
Smith is going to have a hard time controlling Grant on the floor, and that’ll fatigue him. On the feet, Grant is more varied and knows how to break his opponent down with kicks, mitigating that edge in raw speed and power.
I ride with “Dangerous” Davey Grant.
Prediction: Grant via decision
Welterweight: Seokhyeon Ko (-800) vs. Wellington Turman (+510)Best Win for Ko? Phil Rowe For Turman? Misha Cirkunov
Current Streak: Ko lost his last bout, while Turman lost three in a row
X-Factor: Turman is very hittable
How these two match up: I know public confidence in Turman is low, but these odds seem a touch wide.
Ko is a decent fighter if not exactly a prospect at 33 years of age. He’s an aggressive puncher who likes to pair his combinations with powerful takedowns, resulting in about half of his victories coming via strikes. Turman, meanwhile, is more consistent in trying to bring fights to the canvas. He’s the better submission grappler and has eight tapout wins on his record.
I don’t see Turman as a complete lost cause here. He’s bigger, younger, and has the submission edge. However, his defense is pretty porous. In terms of both strikes absorbed and takedowns landed, opponents tend to have little trouble finding the Brazilian. Ko is going to push forward and implement his game plan, so the only question is whether Turman can pull off a reversal or sudden submission (like his armbar over Cirkunov).
Betting on a submission from bottom position is rarely a great move.
Prediction: Ko via decision
Light Heavyweight: Billy Elekana (+240) vs. Lucas Fernando (-295)Best Win for Elekana? Ibo Aslan For Fernando? Rafael Tobias
Current Streak: Elekana has won three straight, while Fernando recently won his UFC debut
X-Factor: Will one of these strikers take it to the canvas?
How these two match up: Rangy 205-pound kickboxers will (most likely) throw down!
Between the two, Elekana appears to be the more rounded MMA fighter. He prefers to strike but was completely willing to switch up the game plan last time out to choke out Junior Tafa. Fernando, meanwhile, is a former LFA champion and more dedicated range kickboxer. His UFC debut was a lovely showcase of his talents, as he picked apart his opponent with long kicks and sharp jabs before finishing with a well-tmed intercepting knee to the body.
It’s hard not to favor the Brazilian here. First and foremost, entering the UFC as an LFA champion is a great indicator of future success. Secondly, he’s significantly sharper on the feet and will hold a reach advantage over a tall and lanky Light Heavyweight accustomed to that edge. Elekana’s game is not build to close distance, and yet that’s probably the task ahead of him if he’s to get through the kicking range and find either a big punch or takedown.
Submitting a Tafa brother doesn’t mean much in the big picture regarding overall ground skills. More likely than some sort of ground domination is a kickboxing match in which Elekana is stranded at distance and broken down.
Prediction: Fernando via knockout
Middleweight: Andre Petroski (+250) vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (-320)Best Win for Petroski? Rodolfo Vieira For Kondratavicius? Antonio Trocoli
Current Streak: Petroski has lost three straight, while Kondratavicius recently won his UFC debut
X-Factor: Petroski is fragile
How these two match up: A typical Middleweight pairing that could produce a quick KO or horrible slog.
Petroski has a problem. After starting his UFC career hot with five straight wins, the wrestler has failed to develop his stand up further. Worse still, he’s been revealed as rather hittable, emboldening all opponents to chase his chin and pursue the early finish with gusto. Rest assured, Kondratavicius will be on the attack. The 27-year-old from Lithuania is a finisher, having stopped eight of his opponents in nine victories. He’s the typical aggressive young fighter, attacking with both high-volume combinations and double leg takedowns.
This is a tricky fight to predict. There is, of course, the obvious outcome: bigger and younger Kondratavicius storms out of the gate, hurts Petroski early, and bullies him for the finish. It’s an easy sequence to visualize. Simultaneously, there is the very real possibility that Petroski teaches the European prospect a valuable lesson about American wrestling. Not only does Petroski have the UFC experience advantage, but Kondratavicius generally hasn’t faced an impressive level of competition, and his sole pro loss came via rear naked choke.
Though both paths feel like viable outcomes, I will side with momentum. Petroski is 35 years old and looks to have peaked already. Kondratavicius, conversely, should continue to grow and improve, so hopefully his counter wrestling and defensive grappling are up to snuff … at least to the point that he finds an overhand right.
