Northwestern didn’t play this past weekend, but its future opponents did. For a fanbase watching every scoreboard like a Wall Street ticker, the results were oddly comforting.
Every team remaining on NU’s
schedule won. But not one looked like a juggernaut. Then-No. 23 USC barely scraped past Nebraska, No. 21 Michigan was sluggish against Purdue, Minnesota needed overtime to beat a bad Michigan State team, and Illinois took care of Rutgers but didn’t exactly reinvent the wheel.
For a 5-3 Northwestern squad eyeing that elusive sixth win, there’s a mix of hope and hesitation: the road ahead is tough, but not impossible. Here’s how each upcoming opponent fared, and what it means for the Wildcats’ bowl hopes.
USC 21 – Nebraska 17
(Northwestern at USC, Friday, Nov. 7)
For all the flash Lincoln Riley brought to Los Angeles, USC’s offense remains firmly stuck in first gear. The Trojans trailed 14-6 at halftime in Lincoln, with quarterback Jayden Maiava completing just nine passes for 135 yards and an interception. The bright spot was running back King Miller, who gashed Nebraska for 129 yards and a touchdown as part of a 202-yard team rushing day.
The win snapped a two-game conference road skid, but the mood in L.A. isn’t celebratory. It’s anxious. Friday night lights at home should theoretically be an easy road, but USC hasn’t played clean football in over a month, and fan frustration with Riley’s playcalling continues to boil.
What it means for Northwestern:
The Trojans have looked mortal, especially outside California. And while they return home for this one, it’s on a short week after a long trip back from Lincoln. That’s a scheduling break Northwestern can actually use.
Riley himself called it a “great challenge” to play a Friday night game two time zones away. Northwestern’s defense has quietly become one of the most disciplined units in the Big Ten; if it can make Maiava uncomfortable and force long drives, the Coliseum could get restless fast.
How NU can win:
Defensively, the plan is simple: take away the run, make Maiava beat you through the air, and keep everything in front. Despite the talent in their backfield, this offense will throw the rock a lot. In fact, Maiava’s best performances statistically in B1G play have both been in losses, so you want him to throw (just maybe not successfully).
Offensively, slow the game down, lean on the offensive line and let Preston Stone play point guard, not superhero. Caleb Komolafe has become the steady hand in the backfield so let the cards fall his way. If NU can establish him early and control tempo, it could hang around deep into the fourth quarter which is exactly where Riley’s teams tend to unravel.
That being said, this is still a primetime game under the Coliseum lights against No. 19 USC at home. The ‘Cats will need to be practically perfect.
Michigan 21 – Purdue 16
(Michigan vs. Northwestern at Wrigley Field, Nov. 15)
It wasn’t the Big Blue beatdown anyone expected. Michigan is 7-2 after outlasting bottom-of-the-conference Purdue, but it was far from dominant. The Wolverines were 20-point favorites at home and needed every one of Jordan Marshall’s 185 rushing yards and three touchdowns to survive.
First-year quarterback Bryce Underwood threw a red-zone interception and fumbled through the end zone, continuing a two-week trend of shaky performances after throwing for under 90-yards in a win against Michigan State the week prior.
Defensively, Michigan remains nasty, but the Wolverines’ margin for error keeps shrinking.
What it means for Northwestern:
Michigan will enter Wrigley rested after a bye, but banged up and searching for rhythm. For Northwestern, this is the ultimate free shot. There are no expectations, all upside. The crowd will almost certainly lean maize and blue, but the ‘Cats have thrived in spoiler mode all season.
It is pretty clear at this point that Michigan’s offense will rely on the run, much like Northwestern’s. Justice Haynes’ foot injury in that MSU game had fans briefly worried, but Marshall picked up the slack. The question is since we know how the Wolverines operate, how does David Braun and company scheme in response?
How NU can win:
Make it ugly. Force Underwood into mistakes, shorten the game and capitalize on field position. Michigan is able to cruise control via the run, so NU has to take advantage when they don’t.
The Wildcats have already shut out Purdue which is something Michigan couldn’t do in its own stadium. That’s a legitimizing confidence booster. If NU’s defense shows up like it did against Penn State, this could get interesting fast.
Northwestern has not beaten Michigan since 2008, and the George Jewett Trophy has never stayed in Evanston since its inception. Never say never, but the Wildcats will need to start with their feet on the gas and then some if they want any chance in this one.
Minnesota 23 – Michigan State 20 (OT)
(Northwestern vs. Minnesota at Wrigley Field, Nov. 22)
Minnesota fans might call it “gritty.” Everyone else would call it ugly. The Gophers barely beat a 3-6 Michigan State team at home, needing a late touchdown drive and an overtime QB bootleg to escape. The defense recorded seven sacks (six of which were in the first half) but still allowed 467 total yards to the Spartans and almost lost in regulation.
Drake Lindsey completed 26-of-39 passes for just 197 yards, and the offense went ice cold for most of the second half.
What it means for Northwestern:
Minnesota is bowl eligible but far from convincing. P.J. Fleck’s offense has regressed badly, ranking near the bottom of the Big Ten in every major category. They’re inconsistent, conservative and beatable. This is especially true away from home, boasting a .000 winning percentage when not in the Twin Cities, with their three losses being at UC Berkeley, at Iowa and at Ohio State.
How NU can win:
This might be Northwestern’s best remaining shot at a Big Ten victory. Protect from the early pass rush, avoid negative plays, and let the game stay messy. If NU can turn this into a defensive slugfest, the Gophers’ offense likely won’t have enough juice to pull away.
Of course, that assumes Preston Stone’s offense is able to slug through enough to get the points required. A theoretically favorable NU crowd should aid him in that quest.
Illinois 35 – Rutgers 13
(Northwestern at Illinois, Nov. 29 – Rivalry Week)
Illinois looked the part again in Champaign. Luke Altmyer threw for four touchdowns, ran for another and led the Illini in rushing with 88 yards. After getting cooked by Washington and Ohio State, Bret Bielema’s defense finally responded, holding Rutgers to 59 rushing yards and forcing a late turnover to seal the win.
It was the kind of complete performance that the Illini faithful had been waiting for. The Illini are now bowl-eligible for the second straight year, and suddenly the season feels alive again in Champaign.
What it means for Northwestern:
Illinois is bowl-eligible and trending up, but the Illini have been inconsistent all season. Rivalry week always brings chaos, and Northwestern has spoiled their party before. Even if they are already at six wins by the final week, NU will do anything to get the Hat back in Evanston.
How NU can win:
Force Altmyer to beat you with his arm. When Illinois can’t run the ball, its offense slows down quickly. They were able to successfully integrate some new plays against Rutgers, and will become bolder and bolder as the season wraps up. If NU’s defense controls early downs, the game could get tense in a hurry.
Final Thoughts: Hope and Fear
Northwestern’s bye week came at the perfect time. The team needed to heal up, reset after Nebraska and prepare for a brutal November stretch that will define the season.
The good news for the Wildcats is that none of their remaining opponents are impossible tasks. USC is shaky, Michigan is banged up, Minnesota is stuck in neutral and Illinois is streaky.
Each matchup comes down to the same formula: limit Wildcat mistakes and capitalize on their opponents’. Quarterback Preston Stone shouldn’t be asked to play hero ball, but NU should look to force opposing quarterbacks into that role. The defense has held steady despite injuries and will need to continue that trend if Northwestern wants to maintain its 72.7% chance to reach a bowl game, according to TeamRankings.
There’s reason for optimism. The ‘Cats avoided Ohio State and Indiana this year after being beaten by both last season, which feels like a fair trade. Every game left is winnable, losable and meaningful. For a group that has already exceeded every expectation, the mission is simple: find one more win and earn it the right way.
This team doesn’t want charity. It wants to fight its way there, and if David Braun’s crew can rediscover the grind-it-out edge that defined their early-season success, the ‘Cats just might claw their way to bowl eligibility after all.
