Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Reds fans and fans across the country.
The Cincinnati Reds sought out the Pittsburgh Pirates last summer as they inched their way closer and closer to a potential spot in the 2025 playoffs, practically begging them to hand over their defensive maestro 3B at the trade deadline.
Hand them over the Pirates did, as Ke’Bryan Hayes became a Red – as did the roughly $32 million that was
owed to him over the remainder of his long-term contract. His defensive reputation has held the part. So far in 128 games with the Reds, he’s been a 10.1 DEF run player defensively at the hot corner, per FanGraphs, while being 10 outs above average per Statcast.
Everything else, though, has been an abject disaster.
Among the 374 MLB players who have logged at least 150 PA so far this season, Hayes owns the single lowest marks in wRC+ (23), wOBA (.207), OBP (.206), OPS (.457), and has somehow managed just 8 RBI the entire time. The cratering is catastrophic, really, even though it isn’t perhaps the single biggest problem the Reds have seen from him in his time in Cincinnati.
What’s also plagued him this year is the very same bad back problem that began to undercut his abilities in Pittsburgh. He hit just .233/.283/.290 in 396 PA during a banged-up 2024 season the year before the Reds went out and traded for him, and he was hitting just .235/.290/.306 for Pittsburgh at the time of the trade. Those numbers ticked up initially after the deal (.271/.328/.441 across his first 19 games as a Red) but bottomed back out to just .213/.312/.255 over his final 32 games of the season.
He’s an offensive hole in the lineup bigger than any other team in baseball can boast, and he’s that with a chronic back problem that can flare up whenever.
The knowns were all there, and the Reds still acquired him. The knowns are all still there right now, too, as Hayes inches closer to his 30th birthday in January. Still, the red flags haven’t been enough for the Reds to completely call time on the experiment despite FanGraphs having suggested he’s been “worth” -0.8 fWAR this year in only 76 games played.
He’s under contract for $7 million in 2027, $8 million for 2028, $8 million for 2029, and the team holds a $6 million buyout on a would-be $12 million salary for 2030. So, to simply eat his contract and cut him would still require about ~$30 million given how much time is left this season, and it sure doesn’t look like the Reds are ready to simply cut him right now as they slide further and further into the NL Central cellar.
If they don’t cut him this season, there’s not really time for him to do anything worse between the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027. In other words, it sure does look like the fact that he’s still on the team right now means they plan on giving him at least one more chance to show he can be something, anything more offensively for them while also providing his elite glove work. That might at least get him to be a replacement level player, something that would be leaps and bounds better than what they’ve gotten from him now.
Of course, that would again come at the expense of Sal Stewart, who came up as a 3B. That’s the position where he’d provide the most value to the Reds, and he’s been shoehorned into playing 1B more often than not all season due to the presence of Hayes (and Eugenio Suarez). Will the Reds really kick another year of experience at the move valuable spot down the road with Stewart just to see if a hope and a prayer that Hayes can post an OPS that begins with 6 actually comes to fruition?
I think, sadly enough, all signs point to the Reds giving Hayes the 3B job to start next season and then – only then – will they make the move to cut him if his production stays where it has been.
What say you? Do you think it’ll be Hayes on the Reds roster at 3B again to start 2027?
