Later tonight, we’ll find out where the Dodgers are headed on Monday: Home to face the Chicago Cubs, or off to Milwaukee to face the Brewers. Which option represents the best potential outcome for the Dodgers?
The Brewers managed to win every game against the Dodgers this season, but most were decided by no more than two runs. That means that the Dodgers might be able to keep up with Milwaukee and come out on top this time. Offense was slightly better against the Cubs, with a collective .230 batting average and a 3-4 record overall.
But as Andrés Soto at MLB.com reminds us, it’s about more than just head-to-head records.
The Cubs know how to pack a punch on offense. They’ve got top-10 rankings when it comes to both average exit velocity, distance, and launch angle, with 15 of 22 runs scored in October coming from homers, according to Soto. Former Dodgers prospect Michael Busch is responsible for four of those, and his teammate Kyle Tucker is also on a hot streak at the plate.
The Brewers’ bats, meanwhile, seem like less of a threat. Jackson Chourio has been looking particularly good in his first postseason, batting .462 with nine RBI so far, and while the rest of the lineup is nothing to sneeze at, Chourio is easily standing out. Milwaukee also has an advantage on the mound. Freddy Peralta not only earned his second All-Star nomination, but he also led the National League in regular season wins and ranked in the top 10 in strikeouts.
Both teams are familiar postseason rivals. The Dodgers lost to the Cubs in six games in 2016, then repaid the favor by beating the Cubs in five games the following year. Then, in the 2018 NLCS, the Dodgers needed all seven games to take the Brewers out.
So, who should Dodgers fans be rooting for tonight? Personally, I’d like a go at the Cubs. Yes, they know how to handle a bat, but the Dodgers’ starting pitchers have been locking in and doing an excellent job of keeping games in check. After such a successful campaign against the Phillies—particularly when it comes to starters coming out of the bullpen—I’m banking on the rotation to keep their energy and focus high so that the offense can do their thing. Plus, there’s something nice about starting a series at home and (ideally) getting a couple of wins in before the series flips back to the Midwest. Either way, expect tough competition and plenty of fireworks—this NLCS is going to be a battle.
