On the latest podcast hythloday and I spend a long time going over our anxiety over the Ducks situation along the offensive line in 2025. While the long term outlook for this room is quite good, a coaching change several years ago led to a “pinch” in recruiting and development. As a result, the staff brought in 3 linemen with a single year of eligibility remaining. It seems likely we will see all three as part of the starting five against Montana State this Saturday.
This brings in hythloday’s infamous
“transfer portal effect.” He explains it in full detail on the podcast, but the simple version is that when an offensive linemen transfers to a new team and starts the next year, that linemen’s performance and that of all of his new team mates suffers a noticeable dip. When one transfer is starting the error rates go up by about 1.8%, with two transfers about 2.8%, and with three transfers nearly 5%.
Partly counterbalancing this is that, according to hythloday’s historic database, once a lineman has become a starter and reached their physical maturity they tend to incrementally improve every year by lowering their error rates about 2%. With that all in mind, the following table shows the pass and run blocking error rates for the six “returning starters” (significant non-garbage time in the last full season they played) Oregon may use in 2025.
| Player | Pass Error % | Run Error % |
| I. World | 22.88% | 19.28% |
| D. Iuli | 14.29% | 17.28% |
| E. Pregnon | 11.86% | 19.14% |
| I. Laloulu | 4.24% | 17.33% |
| M. Bedford (2023) | 9.01% | 18.90% |
| A. Harkey | 15.58% | 9.18% |
For the purposes of our thought experiment, lets assume each of these linemen would improve 2% in each category (4% for Bedford since he has been training for two off seasons, not one). This is obviously an oversimplification, but even then I am going to assume that once a player gets to about 7% error rate or lower in any category they won’t improve further as such low error rates are extremely rare. Indeed, Laloulu’s exceedingly low pass error rate is mostly a function of playing center where he rarely faces elite pass rushers. I also want to throw in G. Wilson as a candidate to play tackle at some point this season, but I only have a small sample size of garbage time reps for him. For our purposes, let’s assume he’d be about an average FBS left tackle this year if thrown into action.
| Player | Pass Error % | Run Error % |
| G. Wilson | 14.00% | 16.00% |
| I. World | 20.88% | 17.28% |
| D. Iuli | 12.29% | 15.28% |
| E. Pregnon | 9.86% | 17.14% |
| I. Laloulu | 4.24% | 15.33% |
| M. Bedford | 7.01% | 14.90% |
| A. Harkey | 13.58% | 7.18% |
These projected error rates do not take into account any “transfer effect” however. Using the numbers above and applying the previous increase in error rates suggested by hythloday’s model, here are anticipated error rates if the staff were to adopt ATQ’s suggested lineup with one transfer. From left to right: Wilson, Iuli, Laloulu, Bedford, and Harkey.
| Player | Pass Error % | Run Error % |
| G. Wilson | 15.80% | 17.80% |
| D. Iuli | 14.09% | 17.08% |
| I. Laloulu | 6.04% | 17.13% |
| M. Bedford | 8.81% | 16.74% |
| A. Harkey | 15.38% | 8.98% |
By the model, this would be an average to slightly-above-average FBS offensive line. Far below the Oregon standard, but decent enough to possibly win 10 games with great skill players and some creativity from the offensive staff. Another possibility is a compromise where one of Iuli and Wilson beat out the transfer coming out of camp, but the other is beaten out by a transfer in turn. This gives two possible line ups from left to right. The first would be: Wilson, Pregnon, Laloulu, Bedford, and Harkey. The second would be: World, Iuli, Laloulu, Bedford, and Harkey. I’ve combined all seven of these players in one table for convenience, incorporating the transfer effect for having two new starters.
| Player | Pass Error % | Run Error % |
| G. Wilson | 16.80% | 18.80% |
| I. World | 23.68% | 20.08% |
| D. Iuli | 15.09% | 18.08% |
| E. Pregnon | 12.66% | 19.94% |
| I. Laloulu | 7.04% | 18.13% |
| M. Bedford | 9.81% | 17.70% |
| A. Harkey | 16.38% | 9.98% |
Just looking at the numbers, either of these configurations might not seem too far off the first scenario. What needs to reinforced though is that every player’s error rate increases by 1%. Since there are five linemen on any given play, those error rate increases compound and net performance suffers more than a quick glance might indicate.
What seems most likely is that the staff will at least start the season playing all three first year transfers. By the model, here is what the error rates would look like for a lineup of World, Pregnon, Laloulu, Bedford, and Harkey.
| Player | Pass Error % | Run Error % |
| I. World | 25.88% | 22.28% |
| E. Pregnon | 14.86% | 22.14% |
| I. Laloulu | 9.24% | 20.33% |
| M. Bedford | 12.01% | 19.90% |
| A. Harkey | 18.58% | 12.18% |
This is the kind of offensive line a team has to game plan around as a weakness. The QB would be facing pressure from the edge almost every second drop back. Rushers would need to break a tackle or juke a defender in the backfield on nearly every play. This is not a line that can enable a championship caliber offense.
There are a lot of reasons to suspect that the 2025 Oregon Ducks offensive line will not be as effective as recent units. There are some reasons for optimism though. The staff has shown that if a combination on the line isn’t working, they are willing to make changes. I would not be surprised if we see three transfers play against Montana state, but that they re-shuffle to play only one or two by the time they head to Penn State.
Further, there are scenarios where the players out-perform the assumptions I have used here. In particular, Iuli was injured much of last year and World is finally part of a program with high quality strength and conditioning. Bedford was trained by a (now fired) staff at Indiana that hythloday found to be noticeably below average at development, so he could improve more as a Duck than had he remained under his previous tutelage. It is conceivable one, two, or all three of them could improve more in the off season than the average predicted by hythloday’s developmental model. Wilson is also mostly an unknown. He could outperform my guesses here, or he might be worse and World could clearly be the better option.
Don’t try to think Oregon is immune to the transfer portal effect on the offensive line. Duck fans should appreciate great offensive line play when they see it and never take it for granted!
