Teams in the NHL’s Eastern Conference playoff race are starting to get into single digits for remaining games this season. The race is on for the highly competitive spot above the playoff line.
In this week’s developments the Flyers and Capitals have won enough games to hang on the periphery but are running out of time and accordingly remain longshots. Philadelphia has a better chance given they have at least a game in hand on all the other teams but they would have to win a few more and get some
luck for multiple teams losing before things truly got interesting.
That leaves 10 serious teams vying for the eight playoff spots. Some teams have lost momentum, the Penguins, Islanders and Red Wings have all been spinning their wheels as far as getting results in the last 10 or 12 games. That left the door open for the first wave of hard charging teams, Columbus and Ottawa, to put themselves in the picture after tremendous post-Olympic runs for both. It’s difficult for those runs to last forever, the Blue Jackets have dropped three of their last four games and the Senators find themselves losers of their last two (0-1-1 to pick up an important point against Pittsburgh).
One team quietly doing a good job lately is Boston, 5-1-2 in their last eight games. Avoiding regulation losses is the name of the game and the Bruins have done a good job of that, and even better by pulling out wins against quality opponents (Buffalo and Minnesota have fallen recently to the B’s).
The Penguins look ahead to potentially their most important week of the season. Their fate might go down to the wire to make for even bigger games at the end of the season but a Monday/Tuesday back-to-back against NYI and Detroit is so important. Hockeystats.com’s model has Pittsburgh today at 81% likely to make the playoffs. Tomorrow’s game carries up to a 21% swing, depending on the result. The game has even bigger implications for the Islanders, who could see a 29% swing for their projection simply based on this one game. Games can be more meaningful but it’s a challenge to find one so important to both teams.
Moneypuck’s model is even more sensitive to the Pens’ cause, throwing a 27.1% swing into the mix.
The good news for the Penguins is while this game is huge with massive implications, it’s hardly a ‘must win’ game. Winning, obviously, is more helpful to the situation than a loss, but the team has more chances down the stretch. The Hockeystat’s model projects Pittsburgh to end up with 98 points at the end of the season. That becomes more difficult and less margin of error to get there with a loss tomorrow, though it’s still possible the team could win five out of their last eight games and end up in the same place.
That said, given the damage a regulation loss would due to the Isles’, it’s a game with a great opportunity to stay in front of them in the standings. And if the Pens stay ahead of NYI, then they will make the playoffs (assuming nothing zany like a 10-game Philadelphia winning streak happens, pardon the mere idea!)
The Tuesday game against the Red Wings is nearly as important, and could deal another massive blow to Detroit’s chances. The Red Wings don’t play today or tomorrow, they have a lot of time to prepare and focus on the Pens. Pittsburgh has their massive game on Monday to add a back-to-back element. For much of the year it seemed like the Pens were incredibly fortunate on catching teams on the second part of their b-2-b, the situation turns at a crucial moment.
The calendar turns to April on Wednesday, and Pittsburgh is playing meaningful games. It doesn’t get much better than that. The season is coming down to the wire and teams have worked all year to put themselves in these positions. Now is the fun part to see which are able to rise to the occasion and who will be left disappointed and wondering where things went wrong.
