Arsenal return to Champions League action when they travel to Italy on Tuesday to face Inter Milan for the 7th match of the CL league phase.
The story for the Gunners this week has been centered around
chances missed, both figuratively and literally. Two goalless draws in the Premier League saw the league leaders fail to put distance between themselves and the chasing pack, which was made all the more frustrating by both 2nd place Manchester City and 3rd place Aston Villa dropping points as well. They head to Milan looking to find the score sheet after having gone goalless in two of their last three matches. Whatever the cause, be it fatigue, personnel, or simply misfiring, it has been a frustrating return.
Still, Arsenal find themselves top in the PL and the Champions League, where their 6 wins from 6 have already secured a bye for the first knockout round and have them in prime position for a top two spot, which secures home advantage when the league phase ends.
Tuesday’s match is a rare chance where securing a win really doesn’t matter Much; not like it does for the rest of the clubs, anyway. Arsenal are 3 points clear of Bayern Munich and 5 points clear of the next three clubs. A draw keeps them top, and even a loss doesn’t derail the campaign. But winning builds confidence, which they’ll need with a massive match against Manchester United looming on the weekend at home. This side needs consistency in front of net, but it also needs a bit of a breather for overextended starters in the midst of a packed fixture list.
With a chance to secure a top two finish but a decisive PL match on deck, Mikel Arteta has tough decisions to make. Will he go strong and fight for the win, or will he hold back and give the starters a much-needed rest?
Here are three talking points ahead of Tuesday’s match:
Know the Enemy
Inter Milan enter the 7th league phase match in 6th place with 12 points and a record of 6W/0D/2L.
Like Arsenal, the Nerazzuri find themselves atop their domestic table and in the midst of an unbeaten run, having not lost since their Italian Supercoppa semifinal loss to Bologna in late December.
While the Gunners are looking to secure their first ever Champions League title, Inter are on the quest to notch their 4th European title, and their first since the 2009-10 season. They came close last season when they made it to the finals following a wildly entertaining semifinal victory over Barcelona. Unfortunately for them, their hopes of a 4th CL were dashed as they were thrashed 5-0 by eventual champions Paris St. Germain in a historically one-sided final.
The current campaign has started off more or less the same for Inter as it did last season, when they finished the group stage in 4th place with 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss to finish with 19 points. The magic number to secure a top 8 spot was 16 points then, and a win and a draw from their next two should see them lock up another crucial bye. Matches against Arsenal and away to Borussia Dortmund mean they don’t have the benefit of resting on their laurels, so expect a largely first choice side on Tuesday.
Their strength, as always, is their defense, fortified by Yann Sommer in goal. Their 4 goals against are second only behind Arsenal. They have not quite lit the net on fire with 12 goals scored, but their attack, like the rest of their roster, is plenty talented. Striker Lautaro Martinez’ 4 goals leads the side, with Marcus Thuram chipping in 2 in the campaign.
Arsenal and Inter faced off last campaign in the first season of the league phase format, with Gunners coming out on the losing side thanks to a penalty for a handball on Mikel Merino at the San Siro, which proved to be the lone blemish for the Gunners’ league phase run. It was only the third time Arsenal and Internazionale have faced off, with the Italian giants winning twice. Balancing the ledger would be nice, but a draw suffices just as well at this point.
In this season’s league phase, they kept apace with Arsenal through the first four matches until two losses to Atletico Madrid (2-1) and at Liverpool (1-0), which means the pressure is firmly on the home side to get a result. An early slate of weaker sides who are all currently in the elimination zone gave them a buffer that has kept them near the top of the table. Their recent performances against sides with more pedigree is cause for minor concern, but they are far from a side that will roll over against top competition. Tuesday will be a dog fight, and Arsenal need to be ready for a loud home support and a motivated side in need of points.
Inter face four injuries at the moment, with the two most notable absences being right back Denzel Dumfries and midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu.
Injuries & Suspensions
Arsenal’s injury issues didn’t worsen following the draw at Forest, and they even got a boost when Cristhian Mosquera returned to the bench after several weeks out with an ankle injury. Riccardo Calafiori and Peiro Hincapie remain out.
Mikel Merino, Declan Rice, and Christian Nørgaard are all on 2 yellow cards, and a third would see them miss the final match of the league phase through yellow card accumulation.
OUT: Piero Hincapie (groin), Riccardo Calafiori (muscular)
Predicted Lineup
Attack: Martinelli, Jesus, Madueke
The Gunners should look to rotate after playing largely the same outfield players in the last two matches. Gabriel Martinelli’s frustrating performance at weekend belies his electric cup form, with 5 goals in the Champions League so far. On the opposite flank, Noni Madueke should by all rights get a second consecutive start to spare Bukayo Saka’s legs ahead of Sunday. At striker, I was tempted to see this as a prime time to give Kai Havertz his first start since August, but he was an unused sub at Forest and probably gets 30 minutes at the San Siro late on in hopes that he can start at home against United.
Midfield: Merino, Nørgaard, Eze
Arsenal’s starting midfield looked gassed against Forest. Mikel Arteta’s over reliance on players once again reared its head, and the Gunners couldn’t physically cope with Forest’s mid block. It’s hard to imagine he won’t give some run out to the back ups in a low-stakes match. Mikel Merino is an adept enough analog to Declan Rice, and Christian Nørgaard should be fresh. The Eberechi Eze conundrum has been frustrating as of late, but there’s no way for him to develop some confidence and form if he isn’t playing more.
Defense: Lewis-Skelly, Gabriel, Saliba, Mosquera
After two matches in Mikel’s dog house, there’s got to be an opportunity for Myles Lewis-Skelly to prove himself and regain his footing. He may be lacking in defensive prowess, but his ability to invert into the middle of the park was missed against Forest, where Timber struggled. It’s admittedly optimistic to think that Cristhian Mosquera is ready for a start after returning to selection on Saturday. Ben White, though, looked spent before half time, and the last time Arteta leaned on him for a stretch of matches, he tweaked his hamstring. Jurrien Timber desperately needs a breather. Give Mosquera the first half, and then let White see out the match.
Keeper: Raya
David Raya had a few uncharacteristic brain farts at Forest, but still left with a clean sheet and zero shots on goal.
If I’m being honest, I cannot be terribly arsed about this match. Arsenal’s CL campaign successes early on give them a rare bit of wiggle room on Tuesday and makes the Inter match as close to a “free hit” as they come. It doesn’t matter nearly as much as the upcoming weekend’s Premier League match against Manchester United, which looms as a major test as the Gunners (alongside the rest of the title contenders) have hit a downturn in form. A loss at the San Siro doesn’t impact their chances of a first round playoff bye, and a win at home against Kairat Almaty to close out the league phase secures a top 2 finish and home advantage through the knockouts. Tuesday’s goals are simple: See it out and avoid injuries. Up the Arsenal!
WHO: Arsenal at Inter Milan
WHAT: Champions League league phase match day 7
WHEN: Tuesday, January 20th, 3:00pm EST/12:00pm PST/8:00pm GMT
WHERE: The San Siro Stadium, Milan
HOW TO WATCH: Streaming on the Paramount+ app
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